Torrington, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

280
FXUS65 KCYS 130858
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
258 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures and critical fire weather conditions are
  expected Wednesday and Thursday.

- Isolated to widely scattered PM showers and thunderstorms will
  return for Thursday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Relatively quiet weather for the rest of the week with Friday
looking like the more active day in the short range. For today,
northwest flow aloft late last night will become westerly with
excellent WAA at the low to midlevels. Should be a hot day with
highs around 98 to 102 near and east of the Wyoming/Nebraska
border. Sidney and Kimball may be the only exception as they
should hang on to an upslope southerly wind ahead of the surface
trough. Further west, surface trough is forecast to push
eastward towards the Nebraska/Wyoming border by late this
morning and stall. This feature will act as a dry-line and wind
shift boundary. West of this boundary, very dry conditions and
gusty westerly winds are expected. Please see the Fire Weather
Forecast for additional details. As for precipitation chances,
can`t rule out a quick shower or thunder shower this afternoon
and into early this evening, especially north of I-80 where a
weak disturbance aloft will slide southeast. Chances should be
less than 15 percent for most places, but added a slight chance
of thunder showers for the northern Laramie Range eastward into
the northern Nebraska panhandle. Brief strong wind gusts are
possible with this activity. Very low chance (5%) of a strong to
severe thunderstorm with limited 0-6 km shear and MLCAPE of
around 500 j/kg north of I-80.

Similar weather expected on Thursday with a continuation of hot
temperatures in the low to mid 90s along and west of the I-25
corridor, and 98 to 103 for western Nebraska. There is a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms as surface winds become
light and variable across most of the eastern plains and all
models show an upper level shortwave lifting northeast across
southeast Wyoming. Kept POP and prob thunder between 15 to 30
percent with some moisture return off the Great Plains is
expected.

All models show the mid to upper level flow backing into the
south on Friday ahead of a quick moving Pacific upper level
trough. Surface winds are expected to shift into the east or
northeast, but should remain light with limited moisture
advection expected...but low level moisture should be more
favorable for thunderstorms compared to Wednesday and Thursday.
Considering the timing of the upper level trough, kept the
highest POP over southeast Wyoming. Western Nebraska may miss
out on most of this activity through early Friday evening.
Severe weather risk appears low at this time due to 0-6km shear
below 20 knots for most of the day and marginal CAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025

An upper level ridge starts to slowly break down on
Thursday and push off to the east as an upper level system tracks
eastward across the Canadian providences. Westerly flow continues to
be the dominant pattern as a stout dry air layer continues to hold
firm near the surface. Between late Friday and Saturday some
weak disturbances will provide some isolated to scattered
thunderstorm chances. With the firm hold that the dry air has
near the surface, there`s some uncertainty as to how much rain
will make it to the ground. This dry layer also presents a fire
weather concern as some areas may experience dry lightning those
days as well. Any area with cured fuels may also be at risk for
wildfires to occur if dry lightning were to struck these areas.
Saturday looks to be the best day out of the three days for
rain chances as we switch from westerly flow to a more southerly
flow. The moisture advection is slightly stronger allowing some
moisture to infiltrate the lower levels for scattered
thunderstorms to have rain reach the ground. Sunday through the
next work week that ridge retrogrades back to the four corners
region to give us back our westerly flow pattern. LREF cluster
analysis shows a ridge building next week as all the global
ensembles have reached a consensus in that aspect. There is some
disagreement as to the amplification of the ridge and how warm
we will get. This mainly has to do with a low pressure system
moving through the Pacific Northwest during this time. Depending
on how far this system digs into the Pacific Northwest will
directly influence how amplified the ridge will be over us. This
will be a monitoring point for trends and see how models handle
this upcoming system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 913 PM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Northwest flow aloft prevails. Skies will be mostly clear. Low
level wind shear occurs at Chadron and Scottsbluff until 13Z to
14Z. Winds will gust to 25 knots at Chadron until 13Z, and to
27 knots at the Wyoming terminals, Sidney and Alliance from 14Z
to 01Z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     WYZ418>422-424-425-427>429.

NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MM/TJT
AVIATION...RUBIN