000
FXUS66 KSTO 082050
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1250 PM PST Fri Dec 8 2023

.Synopsis...
Breezy northerly winds for much of the Valley this afternoon and
evening. Dry conditions and increasingly cold temperatures are
expected into the weekend, with areas of frost in the Valley. Dry
and warming temperatures the remainder of the week.

&&

Satellite images show skies have been clearing since this morning,
and the early morning fog has fully dissipated. This is owed to
the eastward movement of the low pressure system that brought
rain and snow to the area over the last few days. A ridging
pattern is in the process of replacing it, bringing about the
drier and sunnier conditions this afternoon. This particular
pattern, with high pressure to the northwest and a low to the
southeast, is also bringing breezy northerly winds to the Valley
today. Gusts may get up to 30 mph, primarily along the western
edge of the Valley. Gusty winds will continue into tomorrow
morning.

As the ridge begins to dominate the area, conditions will continue
to dry out and temperatures will warm slightly. Valley highs will
rise to the low to mid 60s by Monday. However, Valley lows will
still be quite cold this weekend, remaining in the low to mid 30s
overnight tonight through Sunday. Areas of frost are likely in
the Valley overnight during this time as well, and there is a
40-90% probability of temperatures at or below freezing on
Saturday, and a 20-50% chance on Sunday. Be sure to take any
necessary precautions to protect pets, plants, and people from the
cold. Elsewhere, highs in the foothills and mountains will be in
the high 40s to mid 60s, and the lows will be in the mid 30s to
high 40s.

Late on Monday, a weak shortwave trough will develop over the area.
While this will briefly cool daytime temperatures across the region,
the system is only bringing limited precipitation potential. Any
precipitation that does occur will likely be light and primarily
limited to the northwestern portion of Shasta County. Winds will
also remain relatively light, with speeds and gusts generally below
15 mph. //SP

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...
New upper level ridging in the Pacific Northwest will move inland
over interior NorCal Tuesday, and bring dry weather and some
gusty winds from the north and east. Right now, the best chances
of wind gusts greater than 25 mph according the National Blend of
Models resides in the western Sacramento Valley and the Northern
Sierra. The NBM gives about a 10-20% chance for the western
Sacramento Valley and a 30-70% chance for the higher elevations.
Weak short waves are projected to move over NorCal mid-week,
however moisture content within the short waves is very limited.
Currently the NBM suggests no accumulation expected with the
systems and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) forecast rainfall
totals agree.

Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge amplifies and will
remove any precipitation chances. Ensembles and Cluster Analysis
are in relatively good agreement of upper level ridging dominating
the weather pattern into the weekend. High temperatures will be in
the low to mid 60s for the Valley, and upper 40s to 50s for higher
elevations. Ensembles and Clusters are also hinting at a potential
for a pattern change into next weekend, so stay tuned to the
forecast for updates.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions across interior NorCal next 24 hours
except isolated MVFR/IFR/LIFR in fog development Saturday 05z
through 16z. Confidence in fog development not as high as this
morning. Winds will be from the north, generally 20 knots or lower
with gusts up to 25 knots.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$