320
FXUS66 KSTO 052015
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1215 PM PST Wed Nov 5 2025

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.


.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Greatest impacts from latest storm are pretty much done.
  - Except for scattered showers and thunderstorms over Shasta
    County into this evening...precipitation impacts from this
    current system will be minimal. In Shasta county some showers
    and thunderstorms may have heavy rain resulting in localized
    urban and small stream flooding.
  - Unsettled weather with scattered showers will continue tonight
    into Friday morning. Most of this low impact precipitation
    will be limited to areas north of Chico and Red Bluff.
  - Dry and mild Friday through Tuesday.
  - An active pattern may return mid to late next week, but
    confidence low in timing of it.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight....some moisture fetch and lift from upper trough will
continue to bring a few showers to the area overnight most areas.
High resolution models and ensembles continue to show the threat
of a Shasta County Convergence zone to set up this afternoon into
evening mainly impacting north central and northeast Shasta
county around Redding and north. This would result in localized
heavy rain that could lead to areas of urban and small stream
flooding. Otherwise little impact is expected form the unsettled
weather overnight.

Thursday and Thursday night...looks like we will get a bit of a
resurges of some moisture over the far northern zones.
Precipitation from this looks to be mostly under a half inch with
little impact. Mostly dry weather is expected elsewhere.

Friday through Tuesday...ensembles in good agreement that upper
ridging will build into the area. This will result in dry
conditions and mild temperatures mainly in the lower to mid 70s.

Wednesday and into late week. Ensemble clusters showing that there
is agreement in another system possibly moving into the area, but
latest runs suggests low confidence in timing of it. Overall
confidence right now fairly low with this system so please check
back with updates on it. WMR


.AVIATION...

A storm system will continue to bring periods of MVFR/IFR
conditions until tonight. Majority of precipitation activity ends
after around 06z Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms possible until
around 06z Thursday. Light showers across the northern Sacramento
Valley and adjacent terrain after 06z Thursday. Strong southerly
wind gusts to 30 to 45 kts are possible until 00z-12z Thursday,
strongest over the northern Sacramento Valley and the Delta. Then,
surface winds generally below 12 kts. Potential for MVFR/local IFR
conditions at TAF sites due to low ceilings and/or BR/FG Thursday
morning.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Carquinez Strait
and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern
Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$