000
FXUS66 KSTO 141133
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
333 AM PST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with cool nights and above average high temperatures
continues through the week. Diminishing winds ease critical fire
weather conditions, but widespread smoke from the Camp Fire will
continue to impact the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Short-wave trough weakening as it moves onto the West Coast and
flattens the ridge. First batch of high clouds moved through
yesterday with another batch now knocking on the door. IR imagery
still shows considerable heat emanating from the Camp Fire,
particularly the northeast corner of the fire along the
Butte/Plumas boundary.

With clear skies and dry airmass, current temperatures are running
cooler across the region compared to 24 hours ago and range from
the upper teens to lower 20s in the colder mountain valleys to the
30s across the Central Valley. Milder thermal belts are in the
40s to lower 50s.

Little overall change to the weather pattern expected through the
remainder of the week. Poor mixing will keep persistent smoke over
a large part of interior NorCal affecting daytime highs.
Nevertheless, highs will be around 5-10 degrees above average. Other
than some passing high clouds at times, skies will remain cloud-
free allowing good radiational cooling. Overnight lows in the
Central Valley will locally drop into the lower to mid 30s
resulting in some frost in the outlying areas.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)
Upper level ridging is expected to remain over NorCal through
early next week with weather conditions remaining mostly unchanged
from this week. However, model guidance continues to suggest a
pattern change is in the works for next week. With each run, it is
looking more likely that an upper level trough will break down
the ridging and bring a chance of precipitation to California
sometime mid to late next week. As mentioned in previous
discussions, the confidence in timing and amounts is still low due
to model differences. The Euro model is still bringing the
weather system inland by Tuesday evening which is about a day
earlier than the GFS. For now, have continued with forecast
persistence by bringing precip chances in Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Along with precipitation, temperatures are expected to
cool back to seasonal normal as the weather system moves over
NorCal. HEC

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread MVFR likely the next 24 hours across the entire Valley
with local IFR conditions due to smoke from the Butte County
wildfire. Northerly winds under 10 knots.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$