000
FXUS66 KSTO 232026
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
126 PM PDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly cooler today with locally gusty afternoon
southwest wind over higher mountain terrain. Drying and warming
next week with above normal temperatures. Areas of breezy
northerly wind develop tonight into Monday and persist into
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Water vapor and model analysis showed some high level clouds
moving across northern California ahead of a shortwave
disturbance. An area of subsidence with the upper level front was
beginning to slide across the northwest coast of California and
across central Oregon during the mid afternoon. Temperatures
across the region ranged from the mid to upper 70s to the lower to
mid 80s.

Latest model forecasts continue to show the trough passage on
track this afternoon into the evening, which will bring an
increasing pressure gradient post frontal passage. As a result,
north winds across the valley will increase. In combination with
dry conditions, critical fire weather conditions will result and
outdoor burning is not recommended. Expecting wind gusts as high
as 25 mph for the valley and up to 30 mph for the Sierra.

High pressure will return to the region and bring a slight warm up
back into the 5 to 10 degrees above normal range by mid week.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

Hot and dry weather will continue across the region much of the
latter half of the week as strong high pressure downstream of Rex
Block over the eastern Pacific covers the area. Potentially
cooler weather will return by next weekend as a stronger shortwave
drops down the West Coast from the north, and the southern closed
low attempts to approach the coast, but lots of uncertainty in how
this will play out. Have trended temperatures down for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Local southwest wind 10-20 kts
vicinity Delta and across the higher elevations of the northern
Sierra Nevada.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Tuesday for
Central Sacramento Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern
Sutter, and Butte County Below 1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-
Eastern Portion of Shasta/Trinity NF-Lake County Portion of Lake-
Napa-Sonoma Unit-Northern Motherlode From 1000 to 3000 Ft.
Includes portions of Nevada-Yuba-Placer-Amador and ElDorado
Units-Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line
Below 1000 Ft-Northern Sierra Foothills from 1000 to 3000 Ft.
Includes portions of Shasta-Trinity and Butte Units-Northern
Sierra Including Lassen NP and Plumas and Lassen NF/S West of
the Sierra Crest (West of Evans Peak-Grizzly Peak-Beckworth
Peak)-Northern Sierra Including the Tahoe and ElDorado NF/S West
of the Sierra Crest-Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western
Portions of Tehama-Glenn Unit-Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo-
Sacramento Far Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County
Below 1000 Ft-Stanislaus NF West of the Sierra Crest.

&&

$$