Mesoscale Discussion 1714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Areas affected...northwestern Minnesota and adjacent portions of
North Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 262306Z - 270100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...One or two supercells may evolve through the 7-9 PM CDT
time frame, accompanied by potential for large hail and some risk
for a brief tornado. This is not anticipated to require a severe
weather watch, but trends are being monitored.
DISCUSSION...Beneath a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air,
a seasonably moist boundary-layer across parts of the Red River
Valley has become characterized by CAPE on the order of 2000-3000
J/kg. This is generally focused within narrow corridors near the
Red River, and immediately ahead of a weak eastward advancing cold
front. Although lingering mid-level inhibition has slowed
convective development, the initiation of sustained isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development appears underway.
Subtle mid-level cooling near the southern periphery of a mid-level
cyclone crossing the Canadian Prairies may gradually erode
inhibition further into early evening. However, based on the
various model output, it remains unclear whether this will become
supportive of a substantive increase in convective coverage. Even
so, given at least a narrow window for continuing inflow of
moderately unstable air, ongoing activity probably will continue to
intensify. One or two supercells may eventually evolve in the
presence of 35-50 kt southwesterly mid-level flow. Low-level
hodographs appear modest, but a brief tornado may not be out of the
question, in addition to a risk for large hail.
..Kerr/Hart.. 07/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
LAT...LON 48439677 49859579 50169531 49399466 47809588 47819669
48439677
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Fri, 26 Jul 2024 23:45:06 +0000https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1714.html/20240726
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
SPC Jul 26, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Latest U.S. Mesoscale Discussion
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