SPC AC 270035
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, a few severe, are expected to continue from
the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama this evening. A few storms
may produce hail and locally strong wind gusts.
...01z Update...
Notable midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across
northern OK/southern MO early this evening. Synoptic front has
settled south to a position from southeast TN-northern MS-central
AR. While LLJ is primarily focused off the NC coast, weak low-level
warm advection is noted across the Mid-south ahead of the
progressive short wave. Scattered convection has developed along
this corridor, and several supercells are noted from east central AR
to northern AL. Latest MRMS data suggests large hail is observed
with the most robust updrafts golf ball size hail has been reported
with a few of these supercells. While scattered convection will
continue ahead of the digging short wave, nocturnal cooling should
begin to affect updraft strength a bit such that overall intensity
of this activity is expected to gradually weaken. Even so, hail/wind
are expected through at least mid evening until low-level lapse
rates begin to adjust to cooling surface temperatures.
..Darrow.. 02/27/2026
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 261725
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
Southeast and Florida Peninsula on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are
not currently forecast.
...Synopsis...
A diffuse cold front analyzed in mid-morning surface observations
across the southern Appalachians and mid-MS River Valley is expected
to push southeast over the next 24 hours in a tandem with an
upper-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
early Friday morning along the front from southern AL and the FL
Panhandle into southern GA, but some abatement through the
early-morning diurnal buoyancy minimum is anticipated.
Re-intensification of lingering convection and/or development of
additional thunderstorms is expected along the FL Peninsula through
the afternoon hours as modest heating yields SBCAPE values around
500 J/kg to perhaps 1000 J/kg across southern FL. Broad-scale ascent
associated with the passing upper wave will persist through the
overnight hours; however, low-level convergence will steadily
diminish along the stalling, frontolytic frontal zone, favoring
mainly isolated to periodically scattered thunderstorms. An
unfavorable displacement of the greater buoyancy across
central/southern FL with the stronger mid-level flow further north
will limit the potential for organized/severe convection.
..Moore.. 02/26/2026
WUUS02 PTSDY2
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
SPC AC 261926
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula and
across northern California and southern Oregon on Saturday.
Additional thunderstorms may be possible across the Southern Plains
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.
...Synopsis...
A persistent northwest flow regime will continue across the CONUS
well into the weekend with continued upper ridging over the
Southwest/West Coast and the maintenance of a long-wave trough over
the East. Within this flow regime, several embedded disturbances
will support areas of convection, namely over the Florida Peninsula
and across northern California and adjacent portions of OR and NV.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the
southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau within a low-level warm
advection regime.
...FL Peninsula...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the day
along the FL Peninsula as ascent associated with a de-amplifying
upper wave persists over a buoyant and weakly capped environment.
Although some hodograph elongation is noted in recent forecast
soundings, confidence in updraft intensity is limited due to modest
mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level convergence/forcing for
ascent. Any appreciable severe threat would most likely manifest
along the FL east coast where sea-breeze convergence may focus
thunderstorm development, but confidence in this potential is too
limited at this time for risk probabilities.
...Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau...
Zonal flow across the central Rockies will promote steady lee
troughing along the High Plains through late Saturday night. In
response, warm/moist air advection is expected to increase through
the lowest few kilometers as a plume of low to mid-50s dewpoints
spreads north into OK within a southerly flow regime. Isentropic
ascent within a weak deformation zone at around 850 mb will likely
be the impetus for thunderstorm development within the destabilizing
air mass by Saturday evening. The quality of moisture
return/destabilization remains uncertain due to notable spread in
guidance, which lends low confidence in overall storm coverage and
intensity at this time. However, thunder probabilities were
maintained/introduced where agreement between long-range ensembles
and extended-range CAMs appears greatest.
...Northern CA into OR and NV...
A shortwave trough is forecast to crest the axis of the persistent
upper ridge in place along the CA coast. Cold mid-level temperatures
under the upper low coupled with an influx of Pacific moisture
through a deep layer should support convective elements within
broader precipitation bands. Forecast soundings suggest buoyancy
profiles will remain too limited to support intense convection,
which should preclude a severe threat.
..Moore.. 02/26/2026
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
|
