SPC AC 061958
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Southern CA...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. An isolated
thunderstorm or two remains possible this afternoon and early
evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern CA.
..Hart.. 02/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper low currently developing off the coast of southern CA is
expected to continue deepening as it progresses southward today,
ending the period as a well-developed closed low off the coast of
the northern Baja Peninsula by early tomorrow. Modestly moist low-
to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of
this low, combining with cooling mid-level temperatures to support
scant buoyancy. Consequently, a few thunderstorms are possible later
this afternoon and evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern
CA.
Expansive upper ridging is in place across much of the western and
central CONUS east of this upper low and associated troughing along
the West Coast. Stable conditions attendant to this ridging will
prevail across the remainder of the western and central CONUS. Deep
upper troughing exists east of this ridging from Ontario into the
western Atlantic Ocean, with several shortwave troughs embedded
within the cyclonic flow that extends from the Upper Midwest and off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. However, prevailing cool and stable
conditions will preclude thunderstorm development.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
SPC AC 061704
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from far southeast Arizona into
southwest New Mexico on Saturday morning/early afternoon.
...Discussion...
An amplifying mid-level trough across the eastern CONUS will bring
reinforcing dry/polar air and surface high pressure to most of the
eastern CONUS. Most of the western 2/3rds of the CONUS will
experience mid-level ridging which will keep weather conditions
benign. The only exceptions will be the Pacific Northwest and a weak
trough across northern New Mexico. Ahead of this trough, across far
southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico, some weak instability
may develop beneath some mid-upper-level diffluence. Storm coverage
will likely remain isolated, but forecast soundings support some
potential for lightning from late morning through early afternoon
across this region.
..Bentley.. 02/06/2026
WUUS02 PTSDY2
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
SPC AC 061929
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Discussion...
A large ridge across the western CONUS will suppress through the
period on Sunday as a jet streak extends from the Pacific into the
northern Rockies. Cooling air aloft across the Pacific Northwest may
lead to sufficiently deep instability for some lightning. At this
time, expect most of the lightning to remain offshore. Therefore, no
thunder area has been added to the coastal areas at this time.
Beneath the larger ridge, an upper low will move slowly east across
northern Mexico. Surface heating beneath cooling temperatures aloft
will result in modest instability across southeast Arizona into far
southwest New Mexico. Forcing will remain relatively weak, but the
uncapped environment, combined with some terrain influences may lead
to isolated thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon.
..Bentley.. 02/06/2026
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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