SPC AC 081610
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of Kansas
late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally severe
wind gusts possible.
...Kansas...
A strong upper trough/low over the northern Plains and south-central
Canada will move eastward today towards the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes, and eventually spread into Ontario by late tonight. At the
surface, an occluded low will develop eastward in tandem with the
upper trough/low, while a cold front extending southwestward into
the central Plains continues moving slowly southward through this
evening. Limited low-level moisture is expected to exist ahead of
the front by late this afternoon across KS, with late morning
surface observations and short-term guidance both suggesting surface
dewpoints will likely remain in the mid 30s to no more than mid 40s.
A well-mixed boundary layer will likely develop with ample daytime
heating across the narrow warm sector, with MLCAPE perhaps peaking
in the 250-500 J/kg range around 21-23Z in parts of western/central
KS. MLCIN is forecast to become minimal in this time frame, and weak
low-level convergence along the front may be enough to aid isolated
thunderstorm development across this area.
While stronger flow aloft associated with the upper-level trough/low
will remain displaced to the north of KS, modest enhancement to the
mid-level westerlies may still support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer
shear. This should be sufficient for some updraft organization with
any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained. The primary
uncertainty remains how many thunderstorms will form given overall
modest large-scale ascent amid weak instability. Still, some risk
for isolated hail and locally severe gusts remains apparent with the
strongest multicell cores. The Marginal Risk has been maintained
across KS with no changes.
...Central/South Florida...
20-30 kt mid-level westerlies will overlie weak low-level easterlies
today across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula.
Resultant modest effective bulk shear would conditionally support
updraft organization, but poor mid-level lapse rates noted on the
12Z TBW and KEY observed soundings should generally limit updraft
strength. Still, isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms should
develop this afternoon, and preferentially focus along/near the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with
the strongest cores, but the overall severe threat appears too
limited/isolated to include any probabilities at this time.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/08/2026
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
SPC AC 080557
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected
to develop Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to
mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas, and southwestward into the
Texas Panhandle.
...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central and Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S.
on Thursday, as westerly flow remains over the central states. At
the surface, moisture return will take place across the southern and
central Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southward into far
northern Kansas by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing
low-level convergence along the front will result in scattered
thunderstorm development during the late afternoon, with storms
gradually increasing in coverage in the evening. The latest model
forecasts suggest that a pocket of moderate instability will develop
across north-central Kansas, with weaker instability extending
eastward into northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings in the late
afternoon near the front show about 40 knots of 0-6 km shear with
700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This should support
isolated supercell development with potential for large hail.
Surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to exceed 20 F
along much of this corridor, which would contribute to a potential
for isolated severe gusts.
Further southwest into southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle,
dryline development will be possible as surface dewpoints gradually
increase during the day. Isolated thunderstorms may form to the east
of the dryline during the early evening. Weak instability, moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates may support a
marginal severe threat. Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail will
be the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 04/08/2026
WUUS02 PTSDY2
SPC AC 080713
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward
into the Ozarks.
...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the Rockies on Friday,
as mid-level flow remains westerly over the Great Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across far
southern Kansas. Surface heating and low-level convergence along the
front will aid convective initiation during the afternoon. A few
small thunderstorm clusters will be possible from late afternoon
into the evening. Near the front by late afternoon, model forecasts
have MLCAPE peaking in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range, and show 0-6 km
shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough for a
marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the
primary threats.
..Broyles.. 04/08/2026
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
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