SPC AC 010034
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2022
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Sporadic weak thunderstorms may occur over far southern Florida and
across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight.
...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will move slowly east across the
Pacific Northwest tonight, providing cooling temperatures aloft.
Steepening lapse rates combined with shoreline convergence may yield
low-topped convection as low pressure affects the region.
Over south Florida, lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to gradually diminish with the loss of heating and with
drying due to northerly winds.
Over parts of New England, an expansive area of warm advection
precipitation persists with generally cool/stable surface
temperatures. While deeper convection along the cold front may
support gusty winds, lightning remains unlikely due to little to no
MUCAPE.
..Jewell.. 12/01/2022
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 301640
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
One amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Mid
Atlantic/New England to the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday, while
another mid/upper-level trough will move into and across the western
CONUS through the period. A large surface ridge will persist from
the south-central into the eastern CONUS, while a surface cyclone
will move from the interior Northwest into the northern High Plains.
Generally dry and stable conditions will dominate over most of the
CONUS through the period. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
across parts of south FL, within a moist and moderately unstable
environment. Cold midlevel temperatures will support weak convection
capable of sporadic lightning flashes near the OR and northern CA
coasts. Some weak elevated convection will be possible across parts
of the southern Plains into the Ozarks within a warm advection
regime, but midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy appear too weak to
support thunderstorm development. Weak convection will also be
possible across parts of the Great Basin in association with the
mid/upper-level trough passing through the region, though lightning
potential appears limited at this time.
..Dean.. 11/30/2022
WUUS02 PTSDY2
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
SPC AC 300811
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across far south
Florida, the middle Texas Coast, Ozarks, Mid Mississippi Valley and
along the Pacific Northwest Coast. No severe threat is expected
across the continental United States on Friday and Friday night.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across the
north-central U.S. on Friday as an upper-level ridge moves into the
western Atlantic. A belt of strong low-level flow will move eastward
into the Mississippi Valley. At the southern end of this belt,
moisture advection will take place across east Texas and Louisiana.
Elevated thunderstorms could develop near the axis of strongest flow
from the middle Texas Coast into the Arklatex. Additional storms may
develop in south Florida, where surface dewpoints should be in the
mid to upper 60s F and weak instability is forecast. Thunderstorm
development may also take place along the Pacific Northwest Coast,
ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. No severe threat is
expected across the continental United States Friday and Friday
night.
..Broyles.. 11/30/2022
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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