Current SPC Activity Chart

Current Severe US Wx Maps

SPC Activity Chart
Hazard Sat (10/19) Sun (10/20) Mon (10/21) Tue (10/22) Wed (10/23) Thu (10/24) Fri (10/25) Sat (10/26)
Severe Slight Slight Slight No Area No Area No Area No Area No Area
Fire Critical Critical No Area No Area No Area No Area No Area No Area

Forecast Discussion - Convective Outlook

   SPC AC 190518

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1218 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
   PENINSULA TO COASTAL CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes, can be
   expected from the central Florida Peninsula to the Carolina Coast.

   ...Southeast...

   Well-defined mid-level short-wave trough has progressed into the
   eastern Gulf of Mexico where it appears to be influencing the
   northeastward-moving Tropical Storm Nestor. This negative-tilted
   short wave is forecast to eject into SC by 20/00z, then NC by the
   end of the period. Latest model/NHC guidance suggests Nestor will
   track inland across the FL Panhandle into southwest GA by early
   afternoon. As this occurs, 70F+ surface dew points will surge north
   ahead of the surface low. While lapse rates will necessarily be weak
   with this tropical system, lower 70s surface dew points should prove
   adequate for buoyancy supporting sustained rotating updrafts.
   Additionally, wind profiles will increase markedly ahead of the low
   and the greatest tornado threat would preferentially favor
   supercells that develop along the northward-advancing warm front.
   Early this morning, strongest band of deep convection producing
   lightning was located about 40mi west of the Peninsula. Leading edge
   of this activity is expected to progress inland over the next few
   hours with an attendant tornado threat. Broken bands of
   strong/severe convection should surge across the peninsula primarily
   before 18z then the focus for severe should orient itself along the
   warm front from southern GA to coastal NC late. Primary tornado
   threat should be limited to area where surface dew points can rise
   into the lower 70s, and the northern extent of this moisture should
   be limited to near-coastal regions.

   ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 10/19/2019

    

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z