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SPC Activity Chart
Hazard Wed (11/30) Thu (12/01) Fri (12/02) Sat (12/03) Sun (12/04) Mon (12/05) Tue (12/06) Wed (12/07)
Severe No Severe No Severe No Severe No Area No Area No Area No Area No Area
Fire No Critical No Critical Critical No Area No Area No Area No Area No Area

Forecast Discussion - Convective Outlook

   SPC AC 010034

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0634 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

   Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Sporadic weak thunderstorms may occur over far southern Florida and
   across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   A positive-tilt upper trough will move slowly east across the
   Pacific Northwest tonight, providing cooling temperatures aloft.
   Steepening lapse rates combined with shoreline convergence may yield
   low-topped convection as low pressure affects the region.

   Over south Florida, lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms are
   expected to gradually diminish with the loss of heating and with
   drying due to northerly winds.

   Over parts of New England, an expansive area of warm advection
   precipitation persists with generally cool/stable surface
   temperatures. While deeper convection along the cold front may
   support gusty winds, lightning remains unlikely due to little to no
   MUCAPE.

   ..Jewell.. 12/01/2022

    

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
   SPC AC 301640

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1040 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...
   One amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Mid
   Atlantic/New England to the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday, while
   another mid/upper-level trough will move into and across the western
   CONUS through the period. A large surface ridge will persist from
   the south-central into the eastern CONUS, while a surface cyclone
   will move from the interior Northwest into the northern High Plains.

   Generally dry and stable conditions will dominate over most of the
   CONUS through the period. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
   across parts of south FL, within a moist and moderately unstable
   environment. Cold midlevel temperatures will support weak convection
   capable of sporadic lightning flashes near the OR and northern CA
   coasts. Some weak elevated convection will be possible across parts
   of the southern Plains into the Ozarks within a warm advection
   regime, but midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy appear too weak to
   support thunderstorm development. Weak convection will also be
   possible across parts of the Great Basin in association with the
   mid/upper-level trough passing through the region, though lightning
   potential appears limited at this time.

   ..Dean.. 11/30/2022

   WUUS02 PTSDY2 

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
   SPC AC 300811

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across far south
   Florida, the middle Texas Coast, Ozarks, Mid Mississippi Valley and
   along the Pacific Northwest Coast. No severe threat is expected
   across the continental United States on Friday and Friday night.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across the
   north-central U.S. on Friday as an upper-level ridge moves into the
   western Atlantic. A belt of strong low-level flow will move eastward
   into the Mississippi Valley. At the southern end of this belt,
   moisture advection will take place across east Texas and Louisiana.
   Elevated thunderstorms could develop near the axis of strongest flow
   from the middle Texas Coast into the Arklatex. Additional storms may
   develop in south Florida, where surface dewpoints should be in the
   mid to upper 60s F and weak instability is forecast. Thunderstorm
   development may also take place along the Pacific Northwest Coast,
   ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. No severe threat is
   expected across the continental United States Friday and Friday
   night.

   ..Broyles.. 11/30/2022

   WUUS03 PTSDY3 

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z