SPC AC 021257
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong thunderstorm development is expected from parts of
central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This includes
potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.
...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley...
A residual MCS, with diminished intensity since early on the
overnight, persists at daybreak along the Red River and
Texas/Oklahoma border region eastward into the Mid-South largely
paralleling I-40, with a probable related MCV across eastern
Oklahoma. A relatively isolated severe potential will initially
exist with these storms this morning. However, an intensification of
related/downstream storms is expected by midday, potentially
spanning parts of Arkansas into western/Middle Tennessee, western
Kentucky, and northern Alabama. Additional severe storm development
will be possible this afternoon northeastward into the middle Ohio
Valley and toward the Cumberland Plateau, as increasing
low-level/deep-layer southwesterly winds overlie a moderately
unstable boundary layer. Multiple organizing storm clusters can be
expected regionally this afternoon into evening.
Farther southwest across central/eastern Texas, while considerable
drying and stabilization is still apparent in observational data
after last evening's MCS, the air mass should steadily recover with
moistening and relatively aggressive destabilization into peak
heating. Initial thunderstorm development will be accompanied by the
potential for large hail, with supercells capable of very large hail
possible especially with west-southwestward extent into the Edwards
Plateau and toward the Rio Grande. Damaging wind potential will also
increase as convection organizes and spreads southeastward into this
evening across central/southeast Texas, and possibly Deep South
Texas tonight.
..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/02/2025
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
SPC AC 020551
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday
with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A
cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South
Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians
by Saturday evening.
...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast...
A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in
place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning.
Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning
of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will
likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak
instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or
organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably
limit a greater threat.
Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the
Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather
threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer
shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this
threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially
after sunset.
...Deep South Texas...
The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in
the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires
NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower
southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal
severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on
Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some
guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing
differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on
Day 2.
..Bentley.. 05/02/2025
WUUS02 PTSDY2
SPC AC 020729
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Georgia,
eastern South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina.
...Discussion...
A mid-level low will become cut-off in the Ohio Valley vicinity on
Sunday. This will result in only slow eastward advancement of the
front along the East Coast. Weak to potentially moderate instability
is expected to develop from southeast Georgia into eastern South
Carolina and perhaps far southeast North Carolina. Storms are
possible along the front and/or the sea breeze with perhaps a
greater threat if these boundaries collide. Mid-level flow should be
sufficiently strong for some storm organization including potential
for a supercell or two. Any severe threat will be mostly diurnal and
wane by late evening. Warm mid-level temperatures should keep storms
mostly suppressed across Florida.
A mid-level low will advance east across the Southwest on Sunday
with some troughing anticipated across the southern High Plains.
Strengthening southeasterly flow across Texas will advect Gulf
moisture west into the Trans Pecos. A supercell is possible in the
vicinity of the Davis Mountains Sunday afternoon/evening, but it is
unclear whether sufficient destabilization will occur to support
this threat. Therefore, no marginal risk has been added at this
time.
..Bentley.. 05/02/2025
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
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