SPC AC 191146
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain over the southwest states today, with
broad troughing over the east. Dry and stable conditions will
preclude thunderstorms over most areas today, with the only area of
some risk being over southeast FL late tonight. Given the weak
forcing, minimal CAPE, and unfavorable timing, 10% coverage of
thunderstorms is not anticipated.
..Hart/Weinman.. 03/19/2026
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
SPC AC 190526
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop on Friday near the
Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity, and also near the southeast Florida
coast.
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain over the Southwest on Friday, with strong
northwest flow aloft along the Canadian border. A low-amplitude
upper wave will move from northern MN across the upper Great Lakes
late in the day and overnight, with a weak surface low moving from
the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A cold front will extend from
southwest Ontario into MO by 18Z, with southwesterly surface winds
helping to bring a plume of low to mid 50s F dewpoints as far north
as OH and western PA.
Marginal low-level moistening and daytime heating will lead to weak
instability, which may support isolated thunderstorms developing
within the warm advection zone into the Upper OH Valley and
vicinity. Severe storms are not forecast due to the weak
instability, however, veering winds with height and good deep-layer
shear will support cellular activity, perhaps with very
small/non-severe hail.
Elsewhere, the tail-end of the western Atlantic trough will maintain
cool temperatures aloft over FL. This will support afternoon
destabilization, with isolated activity near the eastern shores
where localized surface convergence may develop.
..Jewell.. 03/19/2026
WUUS02 PTSDY2
SPC AC 190529
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated general thunderstorms are possible Saturday over the
Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will exit the Northeast on Saturday, with a lobe
of cool air aloft extending southwestward from the TN Valley into
the Southeast. Meanwhile, an upper high will remain situated over
AZ/NM and into the southern Plains.
At the surface, a weak trough is forecast from the Mid Atlantic into
the TN Valley, with surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s F.
While lift will be minimal, daytime heating and sufficient
instability may support isolated thunderstorms in association with
the subtle southern wave. Severe weather appears unlikely given weak
lift and marginal shear/instability.
..Jewell.. 03/19/2026
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
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