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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 5 22:30:02 UTC 2023.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 5 22:30:02 UTC 2023.SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z


Thunderstorms are not expected through early Wednesday morning.

...20Z Update...
Latest water vapor imagery implies large-scale ascent in the left
exit region of a robust jet streak overspreading portions of
central/eastern Kentucky this afternoon, where a shallow cumulus
field is evident. While very weak instability could conditionally
support an isolated lightning flash with any sustained convective
cores in the eastern Kentucky vicinity this afternoon/early evening,
the potential still appears too low for a General Thunderstorm area.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 12/05/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2023/

Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to preclude
organized lightning activity across the CONUS today.

  SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z


Winds of 15 to 20 mph and 15 to 20 percent relative humidity is
likely in far southeast Colorado, northeast New Mexico, southwest
Kansas, and the TX/OK Panhandles tomorrow. This may lead to some
locally Elevated fire weather conditions, but seasonably dry fuels
will limit a greater fire weather concern.

..Bentley.. 12/05/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023/

The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the
Missouri/Mississippi Valley regions on Wednesday. A trough will
begin to develop into the West once again, but will be relatively
ill-defined initially. At the surface, a combination of a modestly
intensifying surface high in the Southeast and broad surface low
pressure in the northern Rockies southward into the High Plains will
increase the pressure gradient within parts of the Plains. Gusty
south/southwest winds are possible from the southern High Plains
into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Temperatures
should remain rather cool farther north and keep RH elevated. Warmer
temperatures are expected farther south and within areas of stronger
downslope winds. Pockets of locally elevated fire weather are
possible in the southern High Plains and perhaps parts of southeast
Wyoming should sufficiently dry fine fuels exist.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

  SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

A strong mid-level jet streak will cross northern California on
Thursday. This jet streak will carve out a larger trough across the
Southern Plains which will eventually take on a negative tilt as it
moves into the eastern United States. A strong surface low is
expected to develop over the weekend and leave a cool, continental
polar airmass in its wake across most of the United States. 

...Day 4/Fri Southwest into Far West Texas...
Dry and windy conditions are expected across southern New Mexico and
Far West Texas on Friday. A lee cyclone is expected to develop
across the Texas Panhandle which will tighten the low-level pressure
gradient. In addition, a 50 knot mid-level jet will increase to 90
knots Friday afternoon across southern New Mexico. These strong
winds, above a deep, well-mixed boundary layer, will also support
some stronger surface winds. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above
normal will also support relative humidity below 15 percent. Only
light rainfall has fallen in the region over the past 2 weeks. ERC
values remain near seasonable normals, but dormant, fine fuels
continue to cure and may support some fire spread and increase in
initial attack. Therefore, 40 percent critical probabilities have
been added for Day4/Friday.

Some dry and breezy conditions are also possible on Day5/Saturday.
However, these conditions are expected in the cool, post-frontal
airmass and therefore, fire weather concerns are not as large.

..Bentley.. 12/05/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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