Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a brief
tornado are possible through the mid afternoon across the Florida
Panhandle into north Florida and far southern Georgia. Isolated
strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas,
as well as south-central Texas.

...FL Panhandle into north FL and far southern GA...
A mid-level vorticity lobe over the Mid South is forecast to rapidly
move east and reach the NC Outer Banks by mid evening.  Late morning
satellite/radar imagery shows a broken band of strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front and draped west-southwest to
east-northeast.  A moist and fully modified boundary layer extends
from the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle and Big Bend with
notably drier air over interior north FL.  Convergence along the
front is forecast to weaken late today into tonight as a weak low
over the Carolinas shifts offshore.  However, the prefrontal airmass
will remain moist, moderately unstable, and strongly sheared (50+ kt
effective shear) across the FL Panhandle vicinity through the mid
afternoon.  Embedded cells within the bands will potentially be
capable of wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado before this
activity gradually weakens as it moves into a less-buoyant regime
farther east of north FL.  

...Carolinas... 
Some thinning of cloud cover and modest heating ahead of the cold
front will yield weak buoyancy prior to the front clearing the coast
later today.  Weak low-level lapse rates will tend to limit the
overall severe risk (i.e., localized wind damage potential). 
However, will maintain low wind probabilities this outlook update
due to the possibility for a couple of deeper updrafts to organize
within a region with strong deep-layer wind fields.

...Edwards Plateau into the Lower Rio Grande Valley...
Elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day with a few
stronger updrafts intermittently developing over the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau.  Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear from 50 to 60 kt) and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE may
support the potential for an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail.  Farther south and displaced away from the higher terrain,
very low thunderstorm coverage is expected despite a modifying and
more moist airmass.  Have trimmed hail probabilities over this
region due to the lack of storm coverage in the latest model
guidance.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/07/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday
through Friday night from parts of Oklahoma/Texas into the Ozarks,
lower Mississippi Valley, and Gulf Coast states. Occasional large
hail and damaging gusts should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
With an upper low forecast to remain over Hudson Bay, a
mid/upper-level shortwave trough should develop southeastward Friday
across much of the northern/central Plains into the upper/mid MS
Valley. Shallow/limited low-level moisture will advance northward
across the southern Plains into the Ozarks ahead of a
southeastward-moving surface cold front. An initially separate
mid-level low over northern Mexico Friday morning should devlove
into an open wave through the day as it slowly shifts eastward into
TX through Friday evening. Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to
low 70s surface dewpoints) should spread northward through the
period across TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast
states along an effective warm front, with a weak surface low
forecast to develop over northwest TX by early Friday evening. A
surface dryline extending south-southwestward from this low across
west TX towards the Big Bend is forecast to gradually sharpen
through the day.

...Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas into Missouri/Arkansas...
Even with the somewhat limited low-level moisture expected ahead of
the cold front by Friday afternoon, the presence of modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating should
contribute to around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE in a narrow corridor
along/near the front. Large-scale ascent associated with the
mid/upper-level shortwave trough should aid in the development of
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern OK into
the MO Ozarks by late Friday afternoon. With moderate to locally
strong deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization, the strongest
cores could produce occasional severe hail and/or damaging winds
through Friday evening as they track east-southeastward before
eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Confidence in
a more focused severe corridor across this region remains too low
for a categorical upgrade with this update, mainly due to the
limited moisture/instability forecast.

...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Thunderstorms should form by late Friday afternoon/early evening
across the higher terrain of north-central/northeast Mexico, as
large-scale ascent preceding the southern-stream upper low/trough
overspreads this area. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in
place across south-central TX along/south of a warm front. While
some MLCIN will likely persist through peak heating, it appears that
moderate to locally strong MUCAPE coupled with around 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the
potential for supercells. While some uncertainty remains regarding
how may supercells may develop eastward from Mexico into
south-central TX, the favorable environment supports inclusion of 5%
hail/wind probabilities and a Marginal Risk.

Large-scale forcing appears more nebulous/weak across north/central
TX in between the surface cold front in OK and the upper low/trough
in northern Mexico. Daytime heating should help erode MLCIN
along/near the dryline in northwest/north-central to west-central
TX, and the cap does not appear overly strong across these areas.
Still, considerable uncertainty remains whether sustained
surface-based convection will occur Friday afternoon/evening
along/east of the dryline in TX. Even so, have expanded the Marginal
Risk southward to account for a conditional hail/wind threat if
convection initiates.

Farther east into the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states, some
guidance suggests robust thunderstorms may form through the day
mainly along/north of the remnant front. This activity will likely
be related to small-scale mid-level perturbations and weak low-level
warm advection. Sufficient MUCAPE amid strong deep-layer shear may
support organized cells/clusters capable of producing both isolated
severe hail and occasional damaging winds. Other strong to severe
convection may form Friday afternoon along the Atlantic Coast sea
breeze in northeast/east-central FL. The potential for additional
robust convection Friday night into early Saturday morning across
the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley remains unclear. But, some chance
for persistent convection amid a gradually destabilizing airmass and
strengthening low-level warm/moist advection suggests at least an
isolated severe hail/wind risk may linger through the overnight
hours.

..Gleason.. 05/07/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071700Z - 081200Z

...Morning Update...
A deep, dry airmass aloft was depicted in the 12z TBW sounding.
Clear skies across the FL Peninsula are promoting rising
temperatures and ample boundary layer mixing. Current surface
observations portray sporadic wind gusts of 15-20 mph along the FL
First Coast and sustained winds increasing to 10 mph. Relative
humidity will quickly decline this afternoon as maximum temperatures
approach the low-mid 90s F where 95-98th percentile ERCs exist,
supportive of an Elevated fire weather threat. See the previous
discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and attendant strong mid-level southwesterly
flow will progress eastward into the eastern CONUS today. A related
cold front and associated rainfall will near the Southeast Coast by
this afternoon. Elevated west to southwest winds south of the
advancing front amid low relative humidity and dry fuels will bring
a fire weather threat to portions of FL today. An upper ridge
building over the western U.S. will promote warm and dry conditions
across the region today.

...Florida Peninsula...
West to southwest winds of around 10 mph with higher gusts across
northern FL will evolve within a tightening pressure gradient
manifested by an advancing cold front to the north. Near record high
surface temperatures within a dry and well-mixed boundary layer
reaching the lower to middle 90s F, will promote afternoon RH of
25-35% across inland and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula.
Numerous active wildfires are present across northern FL amid a very
dry and drought stressed fuelscape. The dry conditions combined with
an emerging steady west to southwest wind late morning through the
afternoon will support an Elevated fire weather threat in portions
of northeastern and east-central FL Peninsula.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...