Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible today in the Pacific Coastal
states.  No severe storms are not expected today or tonight across
the continental U.S.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level low will remain over the vicinity of southeast New York
today as a mid-level ridge stays over the Rockies. In the eastern
Pacific, a mid-level trough will approach the West Coast. A few
thunderstorms may develop ahead of the system from the Washington
and Oregon coasts southeastward into the northern Sierras. No severe
thunderstorms are expected.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/22/2024

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the CONUS Saturday.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, a large upper trough will move out of the northeastern
states, with a weak upper ridge moving across the Plains and toward
the MS Valley. To the west, a large upper trough will continue
eastward across the Great Basin and much of the central and northern
Rockies. A lead wave will likely pivot northeastward toward the
Dakotas late.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist from the
southern Plains into the Southeast, maintaining stable conditions.
Low pressure will exist ahead of a cold front from the eastern Great
Basin into the northern High Plains by late in the day. 

A low chance of a few lightning flashes may exist along the coastal
Pacific Northwest where cold temperatures aloft may result in weak
buoyancy. Otherwise, minimal activity will be possible over parts of
central ID and vicinity as lapse rates steepen.

..Jewell.. 11/22/2024

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Little if any thunderstorms are expected across the USA on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will remain over the Canadian Maritimes for much of the
day Sunday, and will shift east overnight as upper ridging occurs
over the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes. To the west, height falls
will spread east across much of the West during the day and into the
Plains overnight, with a lead trough extending from Manitoba into
the northern and central Plains by 12Z Monday.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over the Southeast, with a
trough developing from the upper MS Valley southwestward to the
southern High Plains 00Z. Southerly winds will increase over the
western Gulf of Mexico, with increasing surface to 850 mb
southwesterlies aiding low-level moisture transport.  

While the air mass from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley will
continually moisten, lapse rates will remain poor, and therefore,
thunderstorms are not forecast in this region.

Elsewhere, very weak instability may again develop near the shores
of WA and OR, but the bulk of any low-topped thunderstorms are
expected to remain offshore.

..Jewell.. 11/22/2024