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U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

WW 404 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 192250Z - 200600Z
WW 0404 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
550 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southern Kansas
  Northwestern Oklahoma

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from
  550 PM until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Severe cluster of thunderstorms southeast of Dodge City
has enlarged and become better-organized, and will be moving through
a favorable environment for additional severe hail/gusts for at
least a few more hours into Oklahoma.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest
of Medicine Lodge KS to 40 miles southwest of Enid OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 400...WW 401...WW
402...WW 403...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
32035.

...Edwards

  WW 403 SEVERE TSTM KY TN 192230Z - 200600Z
WW 0403 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
630 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and eastern Kentucky
  Middle to northeastern Tennessee

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 630 PM
  until 200 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Clusters and a band of thunderstorms initially over severe
thunderstorm watch 400 should move into this watch area, continuing
the threat for sporadic damaging to severe gusts and isolated large
hail through the evening hours.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of
Bowling Green KY to 35 miles northeast of London KY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 400...WW 401...WW 402...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26030.

...Edwards

  WW 402 SEVERE TSTM TX 192145Z - 200400Z
WW 0402 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
445 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  West-Central Texas

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 445 PM
  until 1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...With a very hot/unstable environment, high-based storms
are likely to continue to intensify as the progress
east/southeastward through the evening. Damaging winds and isolated
large hail are possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south
southwest of Big Spring TX to 25 miles south southeast of Abilene
TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 400...WW 401...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
29025.

...Guyer

  WW 401 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 192055Z - 200500Z
WW 0401 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern Arkansas
  Northwest Louisiana
  Southern Oklahoma
  North Texas

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 355 PM until Midnight
  CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
    inches in diameter likely
  Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 80 mph possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to quickly develop and
increase through late afternoon and early evening within an
extremely unstable environment across the region. Mid/high-level
winds are strong, particularly by mid-June standards, which will
initially support intense supercells capable of large hail along
with a couple of tornadoes. Over time, multiple
east/southeastward-moving storm clusters may evolve by evening,
particularly across North Texas to far southwest Arkansas/northwest
Louisiana, with widespread wind damage including wind-driven large
hail.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Brownwood
TX to 30 miles north northeast of El Dorado AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 400...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean
storm motion vector 28030.

...Guyer

  WW 400 SEVERE TSTM AR IL IN KY MO TN 191910Z - 200200Z
WW 0400 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
210 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Arkansas
  Southern Illinois
  Southwest Indiana
  Western Kentucky
  Southeast Missouri
  Northwest Tennessee

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM
  until 900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms including multicells/linear
segments and perhaps a couple of supercells (as shear continues to
increase through late afternoon/early evening) will pose a severe
risk across the region.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south of
Poplar Bluff MO to 20 miles south southeast of Owensboro KY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.

...Guyer

  WW 0404 Status Updates
WW 0404 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 404

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DDC
TO 20 NNW P28.

..SMITH..06/19/19

ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC007-025-033-200040-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER               CLARK               COMANCHE            


OKC003-011-043-045-047-059-073-093-151-153-200040-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA              BLAINE              DEWEY               
ELLIS                GARFIELD            HARPER              
KINGFISHER           MAJOR               WOODS               
WOODWARD             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  WW 0403 Status Updates
WW 0403 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 403

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..SQUITIERI..06/19/19

ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KYC001-003-005-009-011-013-017-021-027-029-031-045-049-051-053-
057-061-065-067-069-073-079-085-087-091-093-097-099-109-111-113-
121-123-125-129-137-141-147-151-155-163-165-167-169-171-173-179-
181-183-189-197-199-203-207-209-211-213-215-217-227-229-231-235-
237-239-200040-

KY 
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR                ALLEN               ANDERSON            
BARREN               BATH                BELL                
BOURBON              BOYLE               BRECKINRIDGE        
BULLITT              BUTLER              CASEY               
CLARK                CLAY                CLINTON             
CUMBERLAND           EDMONSON            ESTILL              
FAYETTE              FLEMING             FRANKLIN            
GARRARD              GRAYSON             GREEN               
HANCOCK              HARDIN              HARRISON            
HART                 JACKSON             JEFFERSON           
JESSAMINE            KNOX                LARUE               
LAUREL               LEE                 LINCOLN             
LOGAN                MCCREARY            MADISON             
MARION               MEADE               MENIFEE             
MERCER               METCALFE            MONROE              
MONTGOMERY           NELSON              NICHOLAS            
OHIO                 OWSLEY              POWELL              
  WW 0402 Status Updates
WW 0402 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 402

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E FST TO
40 ESE BGS TO 75 NW ABI.

..SMITH..06/19/19

ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 402 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC081-095-105-151-207-235-253-307-327-353-399-411-413-433-441-
451-200040-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COKE                 CONCHO              CROCKETT            
FISHER               HASKELL             IRION               
JONES                MCCULLOCH           MENARD              
NOLAN                RUNNELS             SAN SABA            
SCHLEICHER           STONEWALL           TAYLOR              
TOM GREEN            


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  WW 0401 Status Updates
WW 0401 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 401

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW SPS
TO 45 SE SPS TO 15 NW GYI.

..SMITH..06/19/19

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...SJT...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 401 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC013-019-027-039-057-061-073-081-091-099-103-109-133-139-
200040-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CALHOUN              CLARK               COLUMBIA            
DALLAS               HEMPSTEAD           HOWARD              
LAFAYETTE            LITTLE RIVER        MILLER              
NEVADA               OUACHITA            PIKE                
SEVIER               UNION               


LAC015-017-027-119-200040-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BOSSIER              CADDO               CLAIBORNE           
WEBSTER              


OKC013-023-089-095-200040-

OK 
  WW 0400 Status Updates
WW 0400 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 400

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE MKL TO
35 ESE PAH TO 10 NNW FAM.

..SQUITIERI..06/19/19

ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 400 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC055-077-145-181-199-200040-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FRANKLIN             JACKSON             PERRY               
UNION                WILLIAMSON          


KYC035-047-177-219-221-200040-

KY 
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CALLOWAY             CHRISTIAN           MUHLENBERG          
TODD                 TRIGG               


MOC157-200040-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

PERRY                

  MD 1142 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA
MD 1142 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Areas affected...portions of northeast Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192256Z - 200030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will persist across the area for
the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening hours.
Isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail are
possible. The sparse and marginal nature of the threat precludes a
WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Organized multicellular clusters and transient
supercells have been observed across the area over the past few
hours. As CVA continues across the area with the westward approach
of a vort max embedded within the larger scale mid-level flow,
continued storm development is expected. A few storms have recently
produced damaging winds around 60 knots. Through the remainder of
the afternoon into the early evening hours, a well-mixed boundary
layer, beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, will continue to result
in adequate buoyancy (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE). Given bulk effective shear
values exceeding 35 knots amidst the aforementioned steep lapse
rates, the more organized storms may continue to exhibit at least
transient mid-level rotation, with marginally severe hail possible.
The modest temperature/dewpoint spreads and sub-saturated
surface-700 mb layer also suggest that damaging wind gusts,
resulting from evaporative cooling within the stronger downdrafts,
will also be possible.

Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to be relatively sparse
in spatial coverage and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...

LAT...LON   47430641 48310731 49010761 48980569 48930479 48320420
            47820410 47290417 47020532 47430641 

  MD 1140 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...NORTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
MD 1140 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1140
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Areas affected...Far southeast Montana...northern and eastern
Wyoming...western South Dakota...far northwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 192200Z - 200000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for at least isolated damaging wind gusts
and large hail is increasing across the area. A WW issuance may be
needed soon pending increasing convective coverage.

DISCUSSION...Deep-layer ascent is gradually increasing across the
area via CVA from both a glancing shortwave trough moving across the
northern Plains, and with an upstream vort max moving across the
northern Rockies area. Low-level lift is relatively mediocre
however, with no predominant boundaries (at the meso-alpha scale or
larger) in place for convective initiation. Easterly flow has been
noted across southeast Montana, where upslope flow may provide
localized lift for convective initiation, but this easterly flow is
weak. As such, there are questions regarding how many storms will
develop.

While directional shear is poor across the area, adequate speed
shear will support splitting supercells and relatively longer-lived
single-cell storms and multicellular clusters. Assuming storms can
initiate and sustain themselves, steep low and mid-level lapse rates
(contributing up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 35-45 knots of effective
bulk shear will support the development of severe hail. A dry
surface-700 mb sub-layer will also encourage deep-layer evaporative
cooling with the more intense downdrafts, supporting damaging-wind
gust potential as well. 

Trends will continue to be monitored for increasing convective
coverage and perhaps the need for a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   41860439 43680832 44990948 45610847 45830705 45510398
            45330273 44260158 42690183 42170262 41860439 

  SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE ARKLATEX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
TX TO SOUTHERN IN...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
afternoon across north-central/northeast Texas. Very large hail and
severe wind gusts are expected. Other isolated severe storms are
expected from western Tennessee into southern Indiana.

...North-central TX/Arklatex...

Note: Some consideration was given to raising severe probs (MDT)
across north-central TX. Very large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected with convection into the late evening.

Strong boundary-layer heating has developed across west TX into the
DFW Metroplex where surface temperatures have risen into the mid
90s. This has resulted in a very unstable air mass along southern
fringe of influential short-wave trough that will eject into AR this
evening. 19z sounding from FWD is quite impressive with PW values
>1.6", 40kt surface-6km shear, and steep lapse rates. Latest
satellite imagery suggests a festering cumulus field just south of
the Red River and thermals are expected to gradually deepen over the
next few hours. Scattered supercells will develop and propagate
east-southeast this evening through the Metroplex and northeast TX.
Very large hail and damaging winds are expected. One or two
tornadoes could be noted with discrete activity before clustering
leads to a potential MCS this evening.

..Darrow.. 06/19/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

...North-central/northeast TX and southeast OK/ArkLaTex...
In the wake of a decaying MCS across the Lower Mississippi River
Valley, a northwestward-extending outflow boundary will continue to
modify/drift northward with rapid/strong destabilization this
afternoon particularly along and south of it. A quick
reestablishment of lower/some middle 70s F surface dewpoints will
occur into prior-MCS-impacted areas, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000
J/kg expected for parts of north-central/northeast Texas into far
southeast Oklahoma and the nearby ArkLaTex. Special 19Z observed
soundings are expected from Fort Worth/Shreveport to help better
gauge/confirm this destabilization trend and the degree of capping.

By late afternoon, ascent should increase downstream of a minor
mid-level impulse that is currently approaching from the southern
Rockies. This should aid in convective initiation along the outflow
boundary, as well as near the dryline bulge in the Texas Big
Country. 40-50 kt effective shear with pronounced speed shear in the
mid to upper-levels will support a risk for very large hail with
initial supercells. The tornado risk should be maximized during the
first couple hours of supercell formation in a relatively narrow
corridor near the outflow boundary, where the influence of the
boundary and strong instability will somewhat compensate for
modest-strength low-level winds. With time, this activity should
consolidate into another southeastward-moving MCS during the
evening, aided by a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, with
an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, a few of which could be
significant given the large buoyancy and ample shear by mid-June
standards.

...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South...
Regarding the Ohio Valley, for short-term details see Mesoscale
Discussion 1133. An MCV-related enhanced belt of
low/mid-tropospheric flow will shift eastward across these regions
through the afternoon and evening, with the strongest
destabilization expected this afternoon along and south of the Ohio
River. Gradually increasing vertical shear will commonly support
multicells, along with some supercells, capable of damaging
winds/hail and possibly a tornado risk.

...Northern High Plains...
A shortwave trough will amplify from British Columbia across the
northern Rockies as a 50-60 kt mid-level jet spreads east across the
Northwest. This will strengthen forcing for ascent and yield
sustained thunderstorm development by late afternoon along the
Wyoming/Montana border and in eastern Montana. While boundary-layer
moisture will be limited and the boundary layer will not be
particularly warm, increasingly elongated hodographs will favor
potential for splitting supercells, a couple of which could be long
tracked. This would particularly be across northern Wyoming into
western South Dakota, where a swath of severe hail with localized
severe wind gusts appears possible.

  SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

Conditions in the Sacramento Valley may reach critical thresholds on
a local basis; however, with mid-level winds oriented somewhat
cross-valley, confidence in widespread surface winds above 20 mph is
too low to add any critical highlights in this outlook. Further
details are found in the previous discussion.

..Wendt.. 06/19/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will continue to deepen across the western CONUS,
with a surface low pressure trough deepening across the eastern
Great Basin into the Central Rockies and a cold front surging
southward across the Great Basin on Thursday. Windy but cool
conditions will prevail behind the cold front, with breezy, dry,
warm flow prevailing within proximity of the surface low-pressure
trough ahead of the cold front during the afternoon hours.  

...Northern California...
As the aforementioned upper-level trough deepens across the
northwest CONUS, a belt of stronger northwesterly flow will coincide
the northern Sacramento Valley, where a very deep, dry boundary
layer will reside. This deep mixing will encourage stronger flow
aloft to mix down to the surface, where 15-20 mph sustained
northerly winds are expected, along with RH potentially dropping
below 15%. Given the relative lack of rainfall over the past few
weeks, finer fuels across lower elevations have begun to adequately
dry for supporting wildfire-spread potential, and an elevated
delineation has been added in this area to account for this
scenario. At least locally critical conditions are also possible,
and forecast trends will continue to be monitored for the potential
of a critical area addition in later outlooks.

...Great Basin into the Four Corners and Central Rockies areas...
With a deepening trough and subsequent stronger flow aloft
overspreading a well-mixed boundary layer over a large area, 15-25
mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20% RH will become
common across much of the area on Thursday afternoon. Still, fuels
appear to remain somewhat unreceptive to fire spread given the
recent accumulating rainfall, precluding delineations at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

 




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