Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLATIC AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with potential for severe wind gusts and a tornado
threat are expected today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward
into the Carolinas. A few severe gusts and hail may also occur over
parts of the central High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
An upper-level trough will dig south-southeastward into the eastern
U.S. today, as an associated cold front moves into the central
Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will
be in place from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas.
Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to
moderate instability by afternoon over much of the region.
Convection is expected to first develop around midday in the higher
terrain of northern Virginia and Pennsylvania. These storms are
forecast to expand in coverage, moving southward through the
remainder of Virginia into North Carolina during the afternoon.

The strongest instability is forecast from southeastern Virginia
into central North Carolina, where MLCAPE could peak around 3000
J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis suggest that
0-6 km shear will be in the 40 to 50 knot range, supportive of
supercells. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast
to reach near 225 m2/s2 by mid afternoon, with the low-level shear
being amplified by the directional component. This should support an
isolated tornado threat with supercells. Supercells and organized
multicell line segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts.
The potential for severe gusts could extend further west into the
foothills of the Appalachians across west-central North Carolina and
far northern South Carolina.

...Central High Plains...
A mid-level ridge will be in place today across the High Plains, as
a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward through the ridge. This
feature along with topographic ascent will support scattered
convective development during the afternoon. Thunderstorms will form
in the higher terrain and move eastward into the lower elevations.
Ahead of the storms, RAP forecast soundings at 21Z have MLCAPE in
the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This,
combined with steep low-level lapse rates and surface-temperature
dewpoint spreads near 30 degrees F should support a potential for
isolated severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible with the
stronger cells.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 07/28/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds
appear possible Wednesday afternoon and early evening over southern
Georgia and northern Florida. Isolated severe storms capable of
severe wind gusts and large hail may occur over the northern High
Plains Wednesday afternoon through evening.

...Synopsis...

An upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the Mid-Atlantic with
associated troughing extending south along the Atlantic Coast. Some
mid-level flow enhancement is forecast across the Carolinas into GA
Wednesday afternoon in conjunction with a weak disturbance moving
through the base of the trough. Elsewhere, an upper high will remain
anchored over the southern Rockies with a series of perturbations
rotating through the western into northern periphery of that
feature. 

At the surface, a cool front will settle south into the southeast
Atlantic coastal areas and central and eastern Gulf states by
afternoon with the boundary extending northwest into the central
Plains. Farther west, a lee cyclone is forecast to deepen over the
northern High Plains with an associated lee trough extending into
the central High Plains.


...Southeast...

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s coupled with dewpoints in the
70s are expected to yield a strongly unstable, prefrontal air mass
by afternoon with MLCAPE up to 3000-4000 J/kg. The glancing
influence of the mid-level wave passing to the immediate north will
combine with modest frontal convergence to foster scattered
thunderstorms by afternoon from central and southern AL into
southern GA and northern FL. While the strongest deep-layer shear is
expected to remain across the post-frontal air mass, a modest
increase in mid-level flow will overspread the frontal zone. That,
along with the strong buoyancy, high precipitable water content, and
steepening low-level lapse rates will be supportive of damaging wet
microbursts, especially if some cold pool organization can occur. 


...Northern High Plains...

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and resultant moderate instability
(e.g., MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) are forecast by afternoon to the
east of the surface low and lee trough. Strong daytime heating and
the approach of a weak mid-level disturbance from the west are
expected to erode the cap, allowing for widely scattered storm
development from late afternoon into evening. Model soundings
indicate a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear, which suggests the potential for high-based,
transient supercell structures with an associated risk for localized
severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail. There is some model
signal for a potentially greater severe wind gust threat developing
over western into central ND Wednesday evening. Should that signal
persist, an upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk may be required.  


...Southern New England...

A zone of enhanced low-level shear is forecast to develop to the
immediate east of the deep-layer cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday. Clouds and precipitation are expected to limit air mass
destabilization within the zone of stronger shear, which should
preclude a severe weather threat. However, if later model runs
indicate stronger instability than is currently forecast, low severe
weather probabilities may be required.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic occurrences of mainly damaging wind appear possible
Thursday afternoon into night across the northern and central Plains
into the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon into night.

...Synopsis...

A series of vorticity maxima is forecast to pivot through the
northern Plains and upper Midwest, within the northeast periphery of
an upper high centered over the southern Rockies. At the surface, an
area of low pressure initially over the western Dakotas will develop
east-southeast to eastern SD or southern MN by Thursday night.
Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will advance through the northern
into central Plains.


...Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley...

Latest model guidance indicates the potential for multiple areas of
showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing at 12Z Thursday, aided by
forcing for ascent attendant to a lead disturbance aloft and
low-level warm advection along a waning, nocturnal low-level jet.
The extent and duration of the early-day convection will have
implications for the degree of air mass destabilization by afternoon
ahead of the cold front. Where stronger heating can occur, the
presence of dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield a
moderately to potentially strongly unstable air mass. However,
vertical shear will tend to be limited by generally less than 30 kt
of mid-level flow across the warm sector.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon along the cold front as well as any residual
outflow boundaries from the morning convection. The models suggest
the potential for upscale growth into one or multiple
cold-pool-driven MCSs with the primary hazard being damaging wind
gusts. Only 5% total severe probabilities will be included in this
forecast due to uncertainty in the preferred corridor(s) of greater
air mass destabilization and resultant severe weather threat. An
upgrade to a Level 2/Slight Risk may become necessary once those
details become more clear.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026