WW 618 SEVERE TSTM KS 250455Z - 251200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Southern Kansas
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1155 PM
until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will continue to organize/intensify
and otherwise accelerate southeastward across central Kansas early
in the overnight. As this occurs, damaging winds will continue to
become an increasing concern from central into southern Kansas.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles northwest of
Medicine Lodge KS to 65 miles east northeast of Wichita KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 616...WW 617...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
31040.
...Guyer
WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW RSL
TO 20 SSW RSL TO 25 W HUT TO 5 SSW HUT TO 25 E HUT TO 40 SE SLN
TO 30 ESE SLN TO 25 W MHK.
..GLEASON..08/25/19
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 618
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-015-017-019-033-035-041-047-049-073-077-079-095-097-
115-145-151-155-165-173-185-191-250840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE
COWLEY DICKINSON EDWARDS
ELK GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA
MARION PAWNEE PRATT
RENO RUSH SEDGWICK
STAFFORD SUMNER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CSM TO
60 SSE LBL TO 30 ENE LBL.
WW 617 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250600Z.
..GLEASON..08/25/19
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 617
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-250600-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER
TXC295-250600-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LIPSCOMB
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 1854 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1854
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019
Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern KS and northern OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618...
Valid 250820Z - 250915Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty wind threat should continue across
parts of south-central Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Downstream
watch issuance in northern Oklahoma is appearing less likely.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing bowing cluster of storms moving across
south-central into southeastern KS has produced mainly sub-severe
winds over the past 1-2 hours. A recent peak wind gust to 35 kt was
observed at KICT (Wichita KS), which is in line with gradually
diminishing velocities observed on radar imagery. Still, an isolated
strong/gusty wind threat should persist with this convection as it
continued to move southeastward through the pre-dawn hours. An
embedded supercell has recently strengthened on the northern flank
of this line across Morris County KS, which suggests an isolated
threat for large hail may also continue in/near Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 618. Given recent observational trends, downstream watch
issuance into northern OK is appearing less likely in the short
term.
To the west of the main line, a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet
observed on the KDDC VWP is encouraging the development of another
small cluster across parts of south-central KS. It remains unclear
whether this convection will become sufficiently organized in the
wake of outflow from the leading bow to pose a severe wind threat.
But, a threat for isolated large hail and strong/gusty winds may be
increasing across western portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618
in the next hour or so.
..Gleason.. 08/25/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 38459951 38439891 38309854 37969835 37779773 37969715
38379696 38969696 38819624 37969595 36989598 36529611
36379659 36349760 36499871 37019952 38459951
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN DAKOTAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across
portions of the northern Great Plains. Hail and severe gusts are
the primary hazards with this activity.
...Dakotas vicinity...
A broad mid-level trough near the Canadian Rockies will amplify as
it moves east to the ND/Manitoba border by early Monday morning.
Concurrently, height falls accompanying the mid-level trough will
overspread the Dakotas during the period. A surface trough will
sharpen during the day as southerly low-level flow maintains a fetch
of 60s F surface dewpoints into the Dakotas. Diurnal heating and
convergence near the boundary will preferentially favor storm
development along the boundary by mid-late afternoon. Adequately
strong mid- to high-level westerly flow coupled with moderate
instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support strong to severe
storms. A few supercells are possible with an associated hail/wind
risk in addition to episodically severe multicells. Storms will
likely weaken during the evening as the activity approaches the Red
River as a combination of increasing convective inhibition and
weakening instability lead to a lessening risk for severe in MN.
...Eastern OK and the western Ozark Plateau...
A couple of thunderstorm clusters are likely to be ongoing this
morning over northeast OK near the terminus of a weakening/veering
southern Plains' LLJ. A couple of strong to severe gusts are
possible with this activity during the morning as it moves
southeastward into western portions of the Ozark Plateau.
Considerable uncertainty remains whether storms will develop later
in the day along residual outflow draped across central-eastern OK.
Confidence is low at this time regarding a late-day scenario for
severe, but later outlooks will reassess whether this possibility
warrants associated severe probabilities.
..Smith/Wendt.. 08/25/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MO...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible along a cold front from the
southern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday.
...Synopsis...
Cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the northern third
of the CONUS on Monday as the mid-latitude cyclone centered over
Manitoba matures. Meanwhile, strengthening westerly flow aloft
throughout its base will spread eastward/southeastward across the
central Plains into the middle MS Valley.
Surface pattern Monday morning will feature a low (associated with
the maturing mid-latitude cyclone) over central Manitoba, with a
cold front extending southeastward to another low near far southwest
KS/OK Panhandle. This cold front is expected to progress
eastward/southeastward throughout the day and overnight, extending
from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into northwest TX by early
Tuesday morning.
...Southern Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
Air mass ahead of the approaching cold front will likely be
characterized by dewpoints ranging from the low/mid 60s across the
Upper MS Valley to the mid 70s across southeast KS/eastern OK by
late Monday afternoon. This ample low-level moisture coupled with
warm temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in
strong buoyancy from OK northeastward into MO. Cooler temperatures
will likely limit instability farther north across IA, western IL,
and southern WI.
Even with this variance in instability, thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the length of the front. Highest probability for
severe thunderstorms is expected from north-central OK across
southeast KS/southwest MO into northern MO where the best overlap
between instability and vertical shear exists. Large hail is
expected to be the main severe threat for the first few hours as
strong updrafts develop along the front. Thereafter, upscale growth
will likely lead to strong wind gusts as the primary threat.
...Middle MO Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Monday
morning across the middle MO Valley as an MCS moves over the region.
Depending on the maturity of this MCS, isolated damaging wind gusts
are possible. However, the current expectation is for the MCS to be
fairly weak by the start of the period, limiting the severe
potential and precluding the need for any probabilities.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 15% - Slight
..Mosier.. 08/25/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OK AND NORTHERN TX...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southern Oklahoma
and northern Texas on Tuesday.
...Discussion...
A large and mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered near
the central Manitoba/Ontario border early Tuesday. Center of this
cyclone is expected to move eastward into far northwestern Ontario
while cyclonic flow throughout its base moves over the upper and
middle MS Valleys.
At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from the Upper Great
Lakes southeastward through the middle MS Valley and into northwest
TX. Northern portion of this front is expected to remain fairly
progressive, reaching the Lower Great Lakes, Upper OH Valley, and
middle TN Valley by Tuesday evening. Southern/western portion of the
front are expected to be less progressive with outflow from a MCS
becoming the effective boundary across southern OK/northern TX.
While thunderstorms are possible along northern portions of the
front, displacement east of the better vertical shear should
mitigate storm intensity. Warm temperatures, ample low-level
moisture, and strong convergence along the composite front should be
able to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures across southern
OK/northern TX. Environment supports a severe threat with any storms
that develop, but location of the front is uncertain, and the lack
of large-scale forcing for ascent and warm mid-level temperatures
could limit storm coverage. As such, only low severe probabilities
are introduced with this forecast.
..Mosier.. 08/25/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA...SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY...SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHEAST UTAH...NORTHWEST COLORADO...
...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet will push into the central Rockies today, on
the back side of a broad upper-level trough along the Canadian
border. At the surface, a cold front will move across the
Intermountain West. Boundary-layer mixing of stronger flow aloft
along with a more stout surface pressure gradient than recent days
will lead to critical fire weather conditions across portions of
both the northern Great Basin and central Rockies. Winds of 20-25
mph will be common across the highlighted critical area. Potential
for 25+ mph sustained winds, and higher gusts, will be maximized
underneath the mid-level jet core in the Snake River Valley and
southern Wyoming. Elevated conditions will occur surrounding the
critical area as winds in these locations will either be lighter
(15-20 mph) and/or fuels will be slightly less receptive to fire
spread. All areas that have been highlighted can expect 10-15% RH
during the afternoon. Only minor changes have been made from the
previous forecast on account of the latest guidance. The critical
area in northeast Nevada was expanded slightly westward and the
elevated area was expanded to include more of central Colorado.
..Wendt.. 08/25/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level cyclonic flow will shift eastward into the
northern Plains/upper-Midwest during the D2/Monday period. At the
surface, high pressure will build into parts of the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies with a thermally-induced pressure
trough present across northern California. With mid-level winds
waning across areas of dry fuels, as well as a generally weak
surface pressure gradient across the northwestern quarter of the
CONUS, fire weather concerns will be reduced below elevated levels
in most locations. Locally elevated conditions will be most likely
in portions of southern Wyoming and perhaps the Snake River Valley
where some residual mid-level flow will exist. However, conditions
are expected to be relatively brief and occur over areas with a
general lack of fuels.
With higher pressure over Montana and a pressure trough along the
Oregon coast, portions of the Willamette Valley will see easterly
downslope flow during the evening/overnight. RH values may dip to
30-35%. Based on available guidance, winds do not appear likely
reach the sustained 15 mph threshold except on a localized basis.
..Wendt.. 08/25/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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