Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis...
No substantial changes to the outlook.  The thunder area has been
trimmed southward in central FL to match movement of a cold front. 
To the west, isolated lightning flashes will be possible through
tonight within the midlevel moisture plume to the east of the weak
closed low just off the northern Baja coast.  The northern extent of
any lightning threat is a bit uncertain given marginal buoyancy
depth/magnitude, but will maintain previous outlook area.

..Thompson.. 10/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a positive-tilt upper
trough over the East and a closed low near the California/Baja
California border.  An extensive area of tranquil conditions
influenced by surface high pressure will prevail across much of the
contiguous U.S.  Widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms are possible
across the southern half of the FL Peninsula primarily through
sunset before much of the convective activity is relegated to the FL
Straits and offshore waters tonight.  Weak thunderstorms are
possible tonight in association with the upper low over southern AZ.

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A weak shortwave trough will slowly move across the Southwest, as a
larger amplified trough approaches the West Coast overnight.
Meanwhile, an upper low will linger off the NC coast, with high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Dry offshore flow will
continue over the Southeast, with stable conditions. A few
convective showers will be possible near the FL Keys before drying
from the north.

Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop over parts of AZ and NM
as daytime heating steepens lapse rates, and a midlevel moisture
plume persists. Weak instability with an inversion near 400 mb will
limit storm strength.

..Jewell.. 10/17/2026

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The Day 2/Sunday fire weather forecast remains on track; please see
the previous discussion for details.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low will remain positioned off of the East Coast
on D2/Sunday as upper ridging lingers across the southern Plains and
lower/mid Mississippi River Valley. Simultaneously, a robust
mid/upper level shortwave trough will begin to approach the Pacific
Northwest coastline. At the surface, high pressure will build into
the northern Plains behind a southeastward-progressing cold front,
while a second area of high pressure persists across the
Mid-Atlantic. Recent widespread precipitation across much of the
Intermountain West, Plains, and East will largely temper fire
weather concerns across these regions.

Dry and breezy conditions are forecast across portions the
southern/central High Plains in advance of lee surface troughing and
across portions of the Southeast, including central/northern Georgia
and adjacent areas of South Carolina/Alabama along the southern
periphery of surface high pressure to the north. Poor to marginal
fuel conditions, recent rainfall across portions of these areas, and
marginal wind speeds across the Southeast are expected to limit the
overall fire weather threat across these regions at this time,
however.

Some 00z high-res guidance also suggests that southwesterly surface
winds will begin to strengthen across portions of northeastern
California, southern/southeastern Oregon, and northwestern Nevada
Sunday afternoon in advance of the approaching shortwave trough.
Guidance differs on the magnitude of sustained surface winds as well
as minimum daytime RH reductions, however. Thus, confidence
regarding an extended (3+ hour) overlap of elevated wind/RH criteria
is low at this time, but locally elevated conditions may materialize
should stronger sustained surface winds overlap lower RH values
Sunday afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...