No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 26 01:01:01 UTC 2026.MD 0066 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...New England into southern and eastern Maine
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 260026Z - 260530Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates on the order of 1-2 inches/hour are
expected to linger in portions of New England and gradually spread
north into southern and eastern Maine through the late evening
hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and web cams continue to
depict widespread heavy snowfall across the New England region with
visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile or less. This activity
continues to be driven primarily by intense warm air advection
through a deep layer (approximately from the surface through 4 km
AGL based on hodograph curvature in regional VWPs). Latest RAP
mesoanalyses also depict strengthening frontogenesis within the warm
frontal zone, which is enhancing mesoscale ascent across the region.
This frontal zone is expected to gradually shift northward over the
next several hours, resulting in a slow northward spread of
precipitation. Additionally, recent 00z ALB and GYX soundings both
sampled deep saturated profiles with several layers within the
dendritic growth zone. These RAOBs align well with recent forecast
soundings for the greater New England region and will continue to
promote efficient snowfall production. Snowfall rates on the order
of 1-2 inches/hour will likely continue for at least a few more
hours across portions of New England, and an uptick in snowfall
intensity is expected across southern to eastern ME - especially
along the ME coastline where heavy snow banding appears most
probable based on QPF output from recent CAM solutions.
..Moore.. 01/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 42197052 41837036 41597050 41447109 41387161 41347230
41357298 41807375 42237391 42927362 43417310 43997209
44707050 45066929 45306827 45416773 45386737 45196704
44826683 44636699 44456734 44296777 44136827 43976884
43826934 43726968 43557006 43267037 42967057 42557064
42197052
MD 0065 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Areas affected...southern Virginia...central North Carolina
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 252350Z - 260345Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain accumulations likely this evening. Rates
around 0.05-0.10"/hr will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Freezing rain reports continue across portions of
central north Carolina into southern Virginia. The main heavy
precipitation is now shifting just west of the Charlotte Metro into
the Richmond Metro. Rates within this line across central North
Carolina into southern Virginia have been around 0.05-0.10"/hr.
These rates will likely continue within the heavier band of
precipitation over the next several hours. A few reports of sleet
are also noted at times. RAP forecast sounding data suggests there
is a pronounced warm nose atop a rather shallow area sub-freezing
air near the surface. The primary precipitation type will likely
remain freezing rain with this profile, but a few areas of sleet
mixing in will be possible especially further north into Virginia
where temperatures are much cooler.
..Thornton.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...
LAT...LON 36197924 36977862 37787783 37897709 37647655 36897671
35927693 35337747 35087781 34347909 34678000 35198014
36197924
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.
...01z Update...
Strong 500mb speed max is translating across WV early this evening.
As a result, primary corridor of warm advection is now focusing
across the Middle Atlantic/southern New England where negligible
buoyancy is noted. Deep convection has been confined to the trailing
cold front across portions of the Southeast, and lightning with this
activity has been decreasing over the last few hours. While 00z
sounding from JAX exhibits around 300 J/kg MLCAPE, low-level
convergence will gradually focus off the Atlantic coast later this
evening as the front surges across this region. Given the limited
instability, and the primary focus for ascent well north of this
region, severe probabilities appear low the rest of tonight.
..Darrow.. 01/26/2026
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
A prevailing upper-level troughing pattern is expected to encompass
the eastern U.S. through the weekend. Surface high pressure across
the east and residual snowpack should keep cold temperatures and
relatively light winds in place through early next week. Upper-level
ridging across the western U.S. should support temperatures above
seasonal normals and mostly dry conditions across much of the
region, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest where
southwesterly flow brings a persistent influx of Pacific moisture
and precipitation through the week.
...Day 3/Tuesday - Florida...
A dry, post-frontal air mass should be in place across the FL
Peninsula on Day 3/Tuesday. Some precipitation associated with the
initial frontal passage on Day 2/Monday could briefly mitigate fire
weather concerns but probabilities of a wetting rainfall remain low
across central FL. The breezy north winds and dry conditions should
align with dry and drought stressed fuels to increase fire weather
concerns. A 40 percent critical probability area was introduced
where minimal rainfall is expected across the central/southwest
coastal portions of the FL Peninsula. Lingering dry conditions are
expected across FL through the week as surface high pressure
meanders across the Southeast with another potential dry cold front
by the weekend.
...Central High Plains...
Northwesterly flow aloft and lee surface troughing east of the
Rockies should support a relatively drier and warmer downslope
regime across the central High Plains at times through the weekend.
Fire weather concerns could increase closer to Day 7/Saturday as an
embedded mid-level short wave within increasing northwesterly flow
aloft reaches the southern Rockies, although uncertainty remains
high in timing of this next feature.
..Williams.. 01/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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