Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated
thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts
of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas.

...Southern Florida Peninsula...
The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies
aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough.
Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will
support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this
afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind
profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should
encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be
severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could
occur with this diurnally driven activity.

...Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas...
Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses
northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong
boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the
I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by
late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent
HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective
development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest
that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is
plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability
and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma.
Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with
some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near
the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in
diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant
consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent
outlooks.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX....

...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated
thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts
of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas.

...FL...
A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the
southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL.  Ample
low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE
values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze
circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms
through the afternoon.  Low-level winds are weak and veered. 
However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be
sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind
through early evening.

...TX/OK...
Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly
low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer
air mass.  By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to
develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM
solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms.  While this scenario is
not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail
and gusty winds for a few hours.

Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm
advection and lift across southern OK.  This will likely lead to
scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast
TX late.  A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds.

..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

...Appalachians...
Some expansion has been made to the Elevated area in the southern
Appalachians vicinity, based on the latest observational and
guidance trends. Sustained winds approaching 15 mph at times
combined with RH near/below 30% will result in elevated to locally
critical conditions. See the previous discussion below for more
information. 

...Northern Plains...
An Elevated area has been added from southwest ND into eastern SD.
Dry and breezy conditions (with winds near/above 20 mph and RH
dropping to near/below 30%) will result in elevated to locally
critical conditions where fuels are dry.

..Dean.. 03/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/

...Synopsis...
A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging
intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly
flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians.
At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains,
as a secondary front moves over the central and southern
Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could
promote some elevated fire-weather potential.

...Northern Plains...
Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are
possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy
conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of
20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be
brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized
fire-weather risk.

...Appalachians...
Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians,
a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal
winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%.
The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions
appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower
humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier
fuels given recent rainfall.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...