No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 6 16:52:01 UTC 2025.MD 1146 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025
Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...far southern
Illinois...western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 061649Z - 061845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the threat for wind damage and a
couple of tornadoes is expected through mid afternoon. A watch may
become necessary.
DISCUSSION...A well-developed MCV from morning convection is moving
generally eastward over southeast MO. New convection has been
slowly consolidating in advance of the MCV, and additional storm
development is likely into the strongly unstable warm sector across
western KY/northwestern TN. On the mesoscale, there will be an
increase in low-midlevel vertical shear and related hodograph
size/curvature as enhanced flow with the MCV encounters the larger
buoyancy to its east through the afternoon. Storm clusters with
embedded supercells will be possible, with an increase in the
potential for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes through
mid-late afternoon. This area will be monitored closely and a watch
could become necessary by early-mid afternoon (near or after 19z/2p
CDT).
..Thompson/Smith.. 06/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 37358756 36618732 35738758 35518852 35598911 35748962
36159011 36599032 37199017 37578967 37618893 37538808
37358756
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
MD 1145 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1145
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025
Areas affected...Southern New England
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 061601Z - 061800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be
possible with multicell storms after 18-19z (2-3p EDT) this
afternoon. The need for a watch is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating is ongoing across southern New
England along and south of a diffuse baroclinic/differential heating
zone. As surface temperatures warm through the mid-upper 80s with
mid-upper 60s dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg with
minimal convective inhibition. By early-mid afternoon, widely
scattered thunderstorm development will become probable along the
diffuse baroclinic zone/buoyancy gradient. Steep low-level lapse
rates, DCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg and precipitation loading could favor
isolated wind damage with downbursts, while the moderately large
buoyancy will be sufficient for marginally severe hail. Vertical
shear will remain relatively weak and the storms are currently
expected to remain only loosely organized, so the need for a watch
this afternoon is uncertain.
..Thompson/Smith.. 06/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 42277141 41837132 41607160 41487249 41347332 41777359
42277352 42497313 42697244 42647166 42277141
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
 Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS...AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds,
and a tornado threat is anticipated. Isolated severe thunderstorms
are also possible extending into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, and
over parts of southern New England. Damaging winds are the primary
concern in these areas.
...Mid MS and TN Valleys...
Morning radar loop shows a mature quasi-linear MCS over eastern OK
tracking into western AR. This system has produced sporadic severe
wind reports overnight, and may continue to pose that risk for a few
more hours. Some weakening is expected through late morning, with
eventual rejuvenation of storms as they spread across parts of KY/TN
and vicinity. Model guidance varies on extent of severe storm
coverage. However, favorable westerly flow aloft, dewpoints in the
70s, and pockets of strong daytime heating will encourage intense
thunderstorm re-development.
...High Plains...
The forecast scenario for today is similar to yesterday, with two
areas of focus for severe thunderstorm activity. One is along the
CO foothills, where moist/southeasterly low-level winds and
moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to intensify by mid-late
afternoon along the foothills and spread southeastward into the
adjacent plains. Forecast soundings show generally straight-line
hodographs, which will promote splitting supercells capable of very
large hail and a few tornadoes. Activity may organize upscale
during the evening over southwest KS and spread across OK overnight.
Farther south, yesterday's and last night's convection has
reinforced a surface outflow boundary which will extend across west
TX. Similar to yesterday, intense supercells are expected to form
in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing
another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes.
..Southern New England...
A plume of seasonally high PW values extends across the OH Valley
into southern New England. Modest air mass destabilization is
expected by mid day with an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE expected
to extend across southern New England by 18z. While deep layer shear
is not forecast to be that strong, adequate flow should exist for at
least some organization. Locally damaging winds are the primary
concern with storms that form along this instability axis.
..Hart/Bentley.. 06/06/2025
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds,
and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms
and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of
the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys.
...Mid MS and TN Valleys...
Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and
AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal
destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River
confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by
early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell
tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this
afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to
scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes
by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front.
Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE
from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of
stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the
stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms
through the early evening.
...High Plains...
Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors
for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25
corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK
Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the
vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of
northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow
will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the
foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow.
Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells
with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and
eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind
threat late.
Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity
of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of
very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance
shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms
move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually
diminishing late.
..Southern New England...
Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the
Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast
to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible.
A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger
storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145.
..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025
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