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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 13 00:59:02 UTC 2018.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 13 00:59:02 UTC 2018.SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z


Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
east/southeast Texas and the ArkLaTex region tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A southern-stream shortwave trough over northern Mexico this evening
will pivot eastward across east/southeast TX overnight, while
another upper trough continues to dig southeastward over the
southern High Plains. Low-level warm and moist air advection is
forecast to modestly strengthen through the end of the period along
the TX Coast and vicinity. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
appear likely to develop mainly after 06Z across east/southeast TX
as large-scale forcing for ascent increases in tandem with the
approach of the southern-stream shortwave trough.

00Z surface observations indicate low-level airmass recovery is
still in early stages across the western Gulf of Mexico, with
dewpoints mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Forecast soundings
from the NAM/RAP along and just inland of the middle/upper TX Coast
show weak elevated instability developing overnight, with MUCAPE
less than 1000 J/kg. Even through low-level shear conditionally
supports some severe potential across this region in the 08-12Z time
frame, tendency for storms to remain slightly elevated suggests that
the overall severe threat remains too low to include any
probabilities through 12Z Thursday morning.

..Gleason.. 12/13/2018



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