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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 22 03:30:08 UTC 2018.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 22 03:30:08 UTC 2018.SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z


A few severe storms remain possible tonight from the Mid-South into
the lower Ohio Valley. Isolated severe storms also remain possible
across portions of the High Plains and Mid-Atlantic.

...01Z Update...

Overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will likely increase
across the region over the next few hours as a subtle shortwave
trough continues eastward. However, the lost of daytime heating
coupled with generally poor mid-level lapse rates should temper
instability enough to preclude anything but a few isolated damaging
wind gusts.

...Mid-South...TN Valley
Convective line moving through southwest KY, western TN, and
northern MS has been gradually losing strength as it continues
eastward into a less unstable airmass. Highest probability for a
severe storm or two now exist across the southern portion of the
line moving through northern MS and into northern AL. In this area,
slightly stronger flow aloft is contributing to stronger shear and
the potential for more robust updraft organization, particularly if
the convective line in this area continues to devolve into more
discrete storms. Storm outflow is also providing the impetus for
some backbuilding along and near the TN/MS border. 

...High Plains...
Isolated severe threat is expected to persist slightly farther east
than delineated in the previous outlook. As a result, 5% wind/hail
probabilities were shifted eastward. Given the radar representation
of the storms, the primary severe threat is likely strong wind
gusts. This is further evidenced by the 51 kt gust recently reported
at BYG in north-central. Some isolated hail also remains possible.

Storms also remain possible across portions of the southern High
Plains. More short-term details for this area are available in MCD

..Mosier.. 06/22/2018



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