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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 3 08:23:02 UTC 2023.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 3 08:23:02 UTC 2023.SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Thu Feb 02 2023

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z


The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Friday.


Southern-stream, positive-tilt short-wave trough will progress
across the Southeast and off the Atlantic Coast by 04/00z. As a
result, deep westerly flow will persist across the FL Peninsula
through the period. This will ensure weak low-level convergence
along the cold front as it advances south, into the FL Straits
during the evening.

Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing along the cold front,
mostly off the FL Coast west of PAM. This activity will advance
inland early this morning and track across the northern Peninsula
prior to 18z. Additional convection will likely develop along the
boundary as it surges south during the afternoon. However, forecast
lapse rates are poor, and limited instability/low-level convergence
do not favor organized robust updrafts. While gusty winds cannot be
ruled out with the strongest convection, the probability for severe
winds appear less than 5 percent.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/03/2023

  SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2023

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential appears quite limited over a vast majority of
the CONUS Saturday owing to a lack of sufficient low-level moisture,
with parts of south FL and coastal northern CA the possible
exceptions. Across south FL, some low-level moisture should still be
in place to the north of a front. Weak easterly low-level flow will
become established through the day as a strong surface high slowly
shifts from the East Coast into the western Atlantic. Isolated
thunderstorms appear possible along the Atlantic Coast, possibly
associated with a sea breeze, mainly Saturday afternoon. Instability
will likely remain too weak to support a severe threat with any
convection that can develop.

An upper trough will move from the eastern Pacific over parts of the
West Coast through Saturday night. Cold mid-level temperatures
associated with this upper trough and steepened mid-level lapse
rates may aid in the development of very weak instability Saturday
night across parts of coastal northern CA. A few lightning flashes
may occur with low-topped convection moving onshore.

..Gleason.. 02/03/2023

  SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The southern portion of a large-scale upper trough should move
quickly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and over the
FL Peninsula by Sunday night. Low-level moisture is forecast to
advance slowly northward across parts of south/central FL, with a
weak surface low possibly developing off the FL Atlantic Coast
Sunday evening/night. Diurnal heating of this airmass should promote
weak instability by Sunday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered
convection may develop and preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast
sea breeze across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. Most
guidance suggests low-level flow will remain fairly modest across
the warm sector, with gradually strengthening mid-level westerlies
through the day as the upper trough approaches from the west. It
appears that deep-layer shear will be sufficient for modest
thunderstorm organization. However, poor lapse rates aloft will
probably tend to limit updraft strength, and any thunderstorms that
do develop should have a tendency to move off the coast and into
adjacent near shore waters with time. Due to these potential
limiting factors, will not include low severe probabilities across
south/central FL at this time.

Across the western CONUS, another large-scale upper trough should
develop eastward through the period. Low-topped convection supported
by cold mid-level temperatures and steepened lapse rates aloft could
produce isolated lightning flashes across parts of coastal northern
CA, mainly Sunday morning. Other isolated thunderstorms may occur
Sunday afternoon over portions of the Sacramento Valley and adjacent
Sierra Nevada Mountains. Instability for both regions should remain
too weak to support a threat for severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 02/03/2023


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