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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 26 20:31:02 UTC 2020.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 26 20:31:02 UTC 2020.SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous U.S. through tonight.

...Southern Plains through Tuesday morning...
A shallow, cold air mass continues to move southward across central
TX.  Bands of elevated thunderstorms (some producing freezing rain
and sleet) are ongoing in association with warm advection and
frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb layer atop the frontal surface.  The
larger buoyancy aloft and stronger forcing for ascent are expected
to shift gradually southeast of the I-44 corridor in OK through this
afternoon into this evening.  Elevated convection should again
increase over northwest TX and spread northeastward into OK in
response to speed maxima ejecting northeastward in advance of the
closed mid-upper low forming over AZ.  Much of this convection after
06z will produce substantial sleet and freezing rain accumulations
where boundary-layer temperatures will be below 32F (along and
northwest of I-44).

...South FL this afternoon...
Daytime heating within a maritime tropical air mass will support
scattered diurnal thunderstorm development along and south of a weak
front across central FL.  The convection will be a little more
concentrated in the deeper moist profiles across southwest FL.

..Thompson/Lyons.. 10/26/2020

  SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous U.S. through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No major changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Isolated to
scattered elevated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts
of the southern Plains into the Ozarks through tonight.

..Gleason.. 10/26/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020/

...Southern Plains through Tuesday morning...
A shallow, cold air mass continues to move southward across central
TX.  Bands of elevated thunderstorms (some producing freezing rain
and sleet) are ongoing in association with warm advection and
frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb layer atop the frontal surface.  The
larger buoyancy aloft and stronger forcing for ascent are expected
to shift gradually southeast of the I-44 corridor in OK through this
afternoon into this evening.  Elevated convection should again
increase over northwest TX and spread northeastward into OK in
response to speed maxima ejecting northeastward in advance of the
closed mid-upper low forming over AZ.  Much of this convection after
06z will produce substantial sleet and freezing rain accumulations
where boundary-layer temperatures will be below 32F (along and
northwest of I-44).

...South FL this afternoon...
Daytime heating within a maritime tropical air mass will support
scattered diurnal thunderstorm development along and south of a weak
front across central FL.  The convection will be a little more
concentrated in the deeper moist profiles across southwest FL.

  SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A closed upper low over AZ/NM and adjacent northern Mexico is
forecast to move slowly eastward towards the southern High Plains on
Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature will overspread
parts of the southern Plains through the period. Even though much of
this region will be to the north of a cold front, weak elevated
instability may still develop as mid-level temperatures gradually
decrease with the approach of the upper trough. Isolated
thunderstorms may occur in this regime. Farther south, substantial
low-level moisture will remain confined to parts of coastal TX and
the Southeast. Occasional storms may also occur across these regions
though the day, but generally weak low/mid-winds should limit both
deep-layer shear and organized severe thunderstorm potential. The
enhanced low-level wind field associated with Tropical Cyclone Zeta,
forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move northwestward to
northward across the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, is not
expected to overspread portions of the central Gulf Coast until
after the end of the Day 2 period.

..Gleason.. 10/26/2020

 






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