Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today over parts of the
Carolinas and southern Appalachians, but no severe threat is
forecast.

...Synopsis...
A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the
northern Plains through the OH Valley and into the Northeast through
tonight.  A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the
Chihuahua-Texas border as heights gradually lower as troughing
pivots slowly east across the East.  The southern periphery of
stronger westerly mid and high-level flow will glance NC later
today.  

In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the Cumberland Gap
eastward to the Delmarva, will push southeast through the Carolinas
by late tonight.  Strong heating ahead of the boundary and dewpoints
in the 55-60 deg F range will contribute to weak buoyancy and
steepened low-level lapse rates by mid afternoon.  Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the
front late this afternoon into the early evening.  Forecast
soundings show only weak surface to 2-km flow (at or below 10-15 kt)
across the Carolina Piedmont.  The weaker boundary layer flow and
weak buoyancy (few hundred J/kg SBCAPE) will likely limit overall
storm intensity.  Although a strong gust or two is possible (35-50
mph), the propensity for an appreciable wind-damage risk still
appears sufficiently low at this time to preclude a categorical-risk
highlight over the Carolina Piedmont.

..Smith/Thornton.. 03/27/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today over parts of the
Carolinas and southern Appalachians, but no severe threat is
forecast.

Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast - to
remove 10% thunder probabilities from parts of WV/KY.  Isolated
lightning flashes in northwest AR are expected to remain below 10%
coverage.

..Hart.. 03/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026/

...Synopsis...
A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the
northern Plains through the OH Valley and into the Northeast through
tonight.  A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the
Chihuahua-Texas border as heights gradually lower as troughing
pivots slowly east across the East.  The southern periphery of
stronger westerly mid and high-level flow will glance NC later
today.  

In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the Cumberland Gap
eastward to the Delmarva, will push southeast through the Carolinas
by late tonight.  Strong heating ahead of the boundary and dewpoints
in the 55-60 deg F range will contribute to weak buoyancy and
steepened low-level lapse rates by mid afternoon.  Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the
front late this afternoon into the early evening.  Forecast
soundings show only weak surface to 2-km flow (at or below 10-15 kt)
across the Carolina Piedmont.  The weaker boundary layer flow and
weak buoyancy (few hundred J/kg SBCAPE) will likely limit overall
storm intensity.  Although a strong gust or two is possible (35-50
mph), the propensity for an appreciable wind-damage risk still
appears sufficiently low at this time to preclude a categorical-risk
highlight over the Carolina Piedmont.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across
portions of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, but the potential for
severe thunderstorms is low.

...Synopsis...

Northwesterly flow aloft will deamplify as an upper trough shifts
offshore over the western Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front
will progress southward across the northern/central FL Peninsula.
Strong heating and a seasonally moist airmass ahead of the front
will support MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern FL Peninsula
and Keys by peak heating and into the early evening. However, very
weak deep-layer flow and poor lapse rates will preclude severe
thunderstorm potential. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a dry/stable
airmass and strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest
will preclude thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 03/27/2026