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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 1 07:28:02 UTC 2022.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 1 07:28:02 UTC 2022.SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms
across parts of the Four Corners today. The severe threat should
remain limited across the rest of the Continental U.S.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will meander across the Intermountain West today as
ridging aloft persists across the central/southern Plains. Multiple
mid-level impulses will pivot around the upper low, promoting
locally stronger deep-layer ascent to foster thunderstorm
development. The latest guidance consensus suggests that one
embedded impulse will impinge on the High Plains, supporting
scattered thunderstorms producing small hail and gusty winds. A
second impulse may briefly support isolated but robust thunderstorm
development across the Four Corners region, and a couple of severe
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, the remnants of Ian
will drift northward and open up as a mid-level trough while
traversing the Eastern Seaboard through the period. Buoyancy should
remain scant within the warm-air advection zone on the eastern
fringes of Ian's remnants, limiting the severe threat, though
lightning flashes are still possible. 

...Portions of the Four Corners Region...
Current night time RGB composite satellite data shows clouds
departing the Four Corners area, with guidance consensus supporting
a continued clearing trend into the early afternoon hours. Adequate
surface heating will support temperatures rising into the 70s F,
with dewpoints reaching the upper 40s F. With continued
boundary-layer mixing, surface-500 mb lapse rates should steepen to
about 8 C/km, contributing to 700-1200 J/kg SBCAPE by afternoon peak
heating. Weak southerly low-level winds overspread by 30+ kt
westerly mid-level flow should contribute to modestly elongated,
straight hodographs, supportive of multicells and perhaps transient
supercell structures. Given the aforementioned lapse rates, a couple
instances of severe wind/hail are possible, warranting the
introduction of Category 1/Marginal probabilities.

..Squitieri/Thornton.. 10/01/2022

  SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated storms may occur from Wyoming toward the Black Hills,
resulting in gusty winds and small hail. The overall severe risk
appears low.

...Synopsis...
The weather pattern on Sunday will feature an upper low over the
West, centered over MT/WY and providing cool midlevel temperatures
to much of Great Basin and Rockies. To the east, a lingering
midlevel trough will drift toward the East Coast, while an upper
high remains over the southern Plains.

At the surface, a rather stable air mass with lack of CAPE will
exist over most of the central and eastern states with high pressure
extending from the Great Lakes into the MS Valley and southern
Plains. 

Instability favorable for thunderstorms will stretch from AZ into
the Dakotas, within the southwesterly flow regime south of the MT
upper low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
throughout much of the day across this region due to heating and
cool temperatures aloft.  A weak surface trough developing over
eastern WY into western SD/NE will likely help focus diurnal
activity. Deep-layer shear will exceed 40 kt with straight
hodographs, and MUCAPE will likely reach 500 J/kg. Cold temperatures
aloft may yield small hail, but limited moisture may tend to yield
non-severe hail.

..Jewell.. 10/01/2022

  SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sat Oct 01 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday.

...Synopsis...
High pressure will remain over much of the Midwest and Northeast,
with surface ridge extending into the southern Plains. Meanwhile,
another high will be centered over the Rockies as a weak upper low
drifts east across MT and WY. Ahead of this low, a surface trough
will develop during the day from SD across NE and into CO, where
strong heating will occur coincident with a pocket of 45-50 F
dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft and lack of cap will lead to
scattered afternoon and evening storms from the WY/CO border into
western NE, but weak shear and instability suggest only general
thunderstorm activity.

..Jewell.. 10/01/2022

 






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