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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 26 02:44:02 UTC 2021.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 26 02:44:02 UTC 2021.SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z


Threat for mainly a few strong to damaging wind gusts and possibly a
tornado or two exists this afternoon and evening from central North
Carolina into Virginia.

...01Z Update...

A line of thunderstorms continues to push eastward across the
region, with the strongest storms currently concentrated from
central VA into central NC. Modest thermodynamics will persist but
strong forcing for ascent and vertical shear are still expected to
support bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and/or a
brief tornado or two for the next few hours.

..Long Island/Coastal Southern New England...
Ongoing line of showers and thunderstorms extending from southeast
PA eastward through central NJ is evidence of the strong moisture
convergence occurring northeast of the surface low. Low-level
southerly flow is expected to persist and strengthen throughout the
warm sector over the next few hours, leading to increased low-level
moisture convergence and isentropic ascent from northern NJ eastward
across Long Island and immediate coastal portions of southern CT,
southern RI, and Cape Cod. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to
increase as a result, and a few storms may be organized enough to
produce isolated convectively augmented wind gusts.

..Mosier.. 10/26/2021


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