Forecast Directory
U.S. Alerts
El Dorado Weather Logo
7 Day Animation SST El Niño Southern Oscilation (ENSO)

latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation

latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation



12 Month Animation SST El Niño Southern Oscilation (ENSO)

Animation of the Latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 September 2020
 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 

Synopsis:  La Niña conditions are present and are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (~75% chance).

In August, La Niña conditions were present, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last week, all Nino indices were negative, with the Nino-3.4 index at -0.9°C and the Nino-1+2 and Nino-3 indices cooler than -1.0°C [Fig. 2]. Equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies averaged across 180°-100°W were negative [Fig. 3], with the largest departures observed in the east-central Pacific from the surface to 200m depth [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropical Pacific were also generally consistent with La Niña, despite sub-seasonal variability during the month. The low-level and upper-level winds were near average for the month as a whole, but enhanced low-level easterly winds were prominent across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during early and late August. Tropical convection remained suppressed over the western and central Pacific, and was near average over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Both the Southern Oscillation and Equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with La Niña conditions.

A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict the continuation of La Nina (Niño-3.4 index less than -0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus supports that view, and favors a borderline moderate event (Niño-3.4 index near -1.0°C) during the peak November-January season. In summary, La Niña conditions are present and are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (~75% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).






Typical La Nina Weather Pattern

La Nina Winter Time Pattern Image



Contact Us | Mobile
Never base any life decisions on weather information from this site or anywhere over the Internet.
Site is dedicated to our Lord & Savior Jesus Christ | Random Quotes of Jesus

Copyright © 2020 El Dorado Weather, Inc. | Site Designed By:  El Dorado Weather