Forecast Directory
U.S. Alerts
El Dorado Weather Logo
7 Day Animation SST El Niño Southern Oscilation (ENSO)

latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation

latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation



12 Month Animation SST El Niño Southern Oscilation (ENSO)

Animation of the Latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 February 2021
 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 

Synopsis:  There is a ~60% chance of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2021 (April-June).

La Niña persisted in January, reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies extending from the western to east-central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. SSTs returned to near average in the eastern Pacific Ocean by the end of the month, as indicated by the latest weekly Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 index values of -0.3°C and -0.2°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. However, the latest weekly Niño index values in the central (Niño-4) and east-central (Niño-3.4) Pacific Ocean were -1.1°C and -0.7°C. The below-average SSTs were supported by negative subsurface temperature anomalies [Fig. 3], which extended from the surface to at least ~150m below the surface between 160°E and 130°W [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies remained easterly from the western to east-central (~140°W) tropical Pacific, with the largest amplitude near the Date Line. Upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across most of the tropical Pacific. Tropical convection continued to be suppressed over the western and central Pacific and enhanced around the Philippines and Indonesia [Fig. 5], while both the Southern Oscillation and Equatorial Southern Oscillation remained positive. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remains consistent with La Niña.

Most of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2021 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus is in agreement with this transition and then predicts a continuation of ENSO-neutral at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer. In part, due to the inherent uncertainty in predictions made at this time of year, the forecast for the fall remains split (~50%) between La Niña and the combination of the other two possibilities (El Niño and Neutral). In summary, there is a ~60% chance of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2021 (April-June; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect climate across the United States during the upcoming months. The 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday February 18th.






Typical La Nina Weather Pattern

La Nina Winter Time Pattern Image



Typical El Nino Weather Pattern

El Nino Winter Time Pattern Image



Contact Us | Mobile
Never base any life decisions on weather information from this site or anywhere over the Internet.
Site is dedicated to our Lord & Savior Jesus Christ | Random Quotes of Jesus

Copyright © 2021 El Dorado Weather, Inc. | Site Designed By:  El Dorado Weather