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7 Day Animation SST El Niño Southern Oscilation (ENSO)

latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation

latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation



12 Month Animation SST El Niño Southern Oscilation (ENSO)

Animation of the Latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 January 2022
 

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 

Synopsis:  La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (51% chance during April-June 2022).

In December 2021, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean were consistent with a mature La Niña [Fig. 1]. With the exception of the westernmost Niño-4 region, which warmed to -0.4°C at the end of the December, the other Niño indices were between -0.9°C and -1.4°C during the last week [Fig. 2]. Below-average subsurface temperatures weakened east of the Date Line [Fig. 3], reflecting the slow eastward movement of positive temperature anomalies, at depth, from the western into the central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. However, below-average subsurface temperatures still dominated the eastern Pacific from ~200m to the surface. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies prevailed over the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Enhanced convection persisted near Indonesia and the western Pacific, while suppressed convection remained over the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a mature La Niña.

The IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index continues to forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus this month favors the continuation of La Niña through March-May 2022, with a transition to ENSO-neutral occurring in April-June 2022 (51% chance). ENSO-neutral is then expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer, though chances do not exceed 57% (for May-July 2022), which is consistent with the generally lower confidence forecasts made through the spring. In summary, La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (51% chance during April-June; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. Jan. 20th).






Typical La Nina Weather Pattern

La Nina Winter Time Pattern Image



Typical El Nino Weather Pattern

El Nino Winter Time Pattern Image



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