226
FXUS66 KSTO 112112
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
112 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Scattered Valley showers, isolated thunderstorms and light to
    moderate mountain snow through this evening.

  - A break in precipitation is expected Thursday through Friday

  - A wetter and colder system arrives later this weekend through
    early next week, bringing significant mountain travel impacts
    early next week. Specific details still uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today...

A weather system will continue to bring scattered showers, light
to locally moderate mountain snow, breezy winds and isolated
thunderstorms through this evening. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect until 4 pm today for the northern Sierra and
the southern Cascades and Lassen Park above 6000 feet. Expect
mountain travel delays and chain controls at times. The latest
probability of thunderstorms sits around 15-25% for this afternoon
and evening across portions of the Valley and foothills. Main
storm hazards include lightning, small hail, brief heavy rain and
gusty winds. Breezy southerly winds are also expected across
portions of the southern Sacramento Valley and northern San
Joaquin Valley through late this afternoon and early evening, with
gusts to around 20-25 mph.

...Thursday through Friday...

Dry conditions return Thursday through Friday as system drops
down into SoCal and brief ridging develops over the area.
Seasonable temperatures are anticipated, with Valley and foothill
highs generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Patchy morning fog
may develop across portions of the southern Sacramento and
northern San Joaquin valleys on Friday.

...Saturday through Mid-Next Week...

A potentially wetter and colder system arrives later this weekend
through mid-next week, which could bring periods of moderate to
heavy mountain snow, widespread rain and breezy southerly winds.
Precipitation will likely remain mainly over the mountains north
of I-80 on Saturday, then gradually spreads across the area Sunday
night into mid-next week. At this point, the heaviest precipitation
appears to be Sunday night into early next week. NBM indicates a
50-85% probability of at least 1 inch of precipitation in the
Valley, with a 60-85% probability of greater than 2 inches over
the foothills and mountains through Wednesday morning.

NBM indicates a 65-90% probability of at least 2 feet of snow
above 4000 feet through Wednesday morning, with potentially
moderate to major travel impacts early next week. Snow levels
start around 4500-5500 feet Sunday, falling to 3000-4500 feet on
Monday-Tuesday (but there is a 10% chance it could be as low as
2500 feet by Tuesday morning). The colder air associated with this
system means lower snow levels, possibly into the upper foothills
by early next week. Model uncertainty remains regarding timing,
exact snow levels and precipitation amounts. Stay tuned as more
details become available!

 &&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with MVFR/IFR conditions next 24 hours due to
weather system moving through the area. VCSH and VCTS at Valley
TAF sites through 05z Thursday. BR conditions may develop at
Sacramento Area TAF sites around 16z Thursday bringing a short
period of MVFR conditions. Mountain snow through 05z Thursday;
snow levels around 4500-5500 feet. Southerly wind gusts up to 30
knots through 02z Thursday, then north winds below 12 kts. &&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for West
Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

&&

$$