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Current U.S. Mesoscale Discussions
Current United States Mesoscale Discussions
Current United States Mesoscale Discussion Legend
   SPC AC 242001

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0301 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

   Valid 242000Z - 251200Z


   Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe
   gusts and large hail are expected from the south-central High Plains
   eastward through Oklahoma and Arkansas and into central Kentucky and
   middle Tennessee.

   The notable change from the previous outlook's probability forecast
   is to reduce severe probabilities (hail, wind, tornado) and result
   in a categorical Slight (2) Risk from southeast CO through the TX
   Panhandle and into western OK.  An ongoing severe MCS over central
   OK is continuing to the east-southeast during the mid afternoon. 
   Extensive cold-air outflow from the MCS has permeated the TX
   Panhandle into northeast NM and southeast CO.  The 19Z AMA RAOB
   sampled a boundary layer much less unstable than short-term model
   guidance depicted (even the 18Z RAP model struggled substantially
   with a difference in 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE noted for a 1-hr forecast). 
   Given the inability for both convection-allowing and deterministic
   guidance to reasonably capture the pervasiveness of the reduction in
   theta-e, have opted to heavily lean on observed surface and special
   RAOB upper-air data for an environmental expectation for later this
   afternoon/evening.  Models continue to show thunderstorms developing
   near the higher terrain later today and moving southeast into the TX
   Panhandle.  The steep 700-500 lapse rates sampled above the boundary
   layer and supercell-wind profiles will support a large hail risk
   along with the potential for severe gusts.  

   Elsewhere, left the forecast largely unchanged except to include
   low-wind probabilities in Upstate SC.

   ..Smith.. 06/24/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018/

   A midlevel trough over the central Rockies will continue to progress
   east-southeastward over CO today, and the trough will reach western
   NE/KS overnight.  This synoptic wave is preceded by a series of MCVs
   from overnight convection across KS/OK/MO/AR, and associated
   convective outflows.

   ...Southern High Plains this afternoon through early tonight...
   The outflow and stabilization appears likely to limit the severe
   storm threat for areas north of the ongoing convection across
   northwest OK, given the reduction in lapse rates aloft and low-level
   moisture per surface observations and the 12z soundings from DDC and
   LMN.  The outflow associated with the ongoing storms continues to
   surge southward across northwest OK and the TX Panhandle, and should
   consolidate with the prior outflow from the weakening MCS now over
   AR.  This will tend to result in a southward shift of the main
   severe threat area to where the outflow eventually stalls at the
   triple point with the lee cyclone and dryline.  An influx of 68-72 F
   boundary-layer dewpoints along the residual southern outflow and
   surface heating, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates noted in the 12z
   AMA sounding, will drive strong buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 4000

   The convective outflow has overspread almost all of southeast CO,
   where widespread low clouds may tend to slow surface heating. 
   Still, sufficient destabilization is expected to support severe
   storm development this afternoon as forcing for ascent overspreads
   the area with the approach of the midlevel trough and a reinforcing
   frontal surge from the north.  The initial storms should be
   supercells capable of producing large hail, though upscale growth
   into another convective cluster is expected by this evening, with an
   attendant threat for damaging winds.  The convective cluster should
   subsequently develop east-southeastward toward the northern TX
   Panhandle and western OK along the lingering outflow and buoyancy
   gradient from the ongoing storms.  A separate area of storm
   development will be possible at the outflow/dryline intersection
   (probably near or just north of PVW), where strong surface heating
   and deep mixing will reduce convective inhibition and drive strong
   buoyancy.  This area will be along the southern fringe of the
   stronger mid-upper flow and will rely on backed low-level flow along
   the outflow to support supercells.  Very large hail and damaging
   winds will be possible with any storms that form along the boundary,
   and a couple of tornadoes could also occur in the zone of enhanced
   low-level shear and moisture on the cool side of the boundary, once
   it slows its southward movement this afternoon.

   ...Western TN and vicinity...
   The MCS across AR should continue to weaken today, though a
   resultant MCV will continue to drift eastward through the afternoon.
    Some destabilization will occur along a weak outflow boundary
   across western TN, and in advance of the remnants of the AR
   convection.  There will be some chance for redevelopment of
   strong/severe storms with the MCV this afternoon, and damaging gusts
   will be the main threat.

   ...Mid Atlantic and vicinity this afternoon...
   Scattered thunderstorms will form in a moist environment and in
   association with embedded speed maxima progressing eastward from the
   OH Valley toward the northern Mid Atlantic and southern New England.
    Though lapse rates will remain rather poor, moderately strong
   midlevel flow could support a few storms capable of some downward
   momentum transfer and isolated strong/damaging gusts.





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