SPC AC 271954

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0254 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

   Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NM INTO FAR WEST
   TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over a
   small part of southeast New Mexico and Far West Texas.

   ...20Z Update...
   Visible satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus and an initial
   attempt at convective initiation over Far West Texas, although storm
   tops and lightning activity have decreased since the initial upward
   pulse. Still, the expectation is for isolated thunderstorms to
   develop across portions of West Texas into far southeastern New
   Mexico this afternoon into the evening. Given steep lapse rates,
   moderate buoyancy, and 0-6km shear of 30-40 kts, some supercell
   thunderstorm potential exists. Though storm coverage is anticipated
   to remain low, recent forecast guidance and mesoanalysis data
   indicate the environment may be supportive of large hail up to 2.5"
   in diameter. For short term details, see MCD #2412

   While minor adjustments to the Marginal Risk area have been made to
   account for recent trends, the primary change is to introduce a CIG
   1 area for hail to reflect the potential for very large hail.

   ..Halbert-K.. 10/27/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026/

   ...Southeast NM/Far West TX...
   Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates broad cyclonic flow
   over the western half of the Lower 48 states, with
   west-southwesterly flow across the southern Rockies and adjacent
   High Plains.  A lee trough over the High Plains will yield favorable
   low-level trajectories for maintaining moisture in Far West TX and
   southeast NM.  The 12 UTC Midland, TX observed sounding showed
   moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7 deg C/km) with shear
   primarily relegated in the 500 to 200 mb layer.  As the boundary
   layer heats and destabilizes through mid afternoon, moderate
   buoyancy will likely develop and lead to isolated thunderstorms. 
   Forecast soundings imply a couple of supercells potentially capable
   of large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) will be possible.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z