SPC AC 051953

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

   Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
   across the eastern Carolinas.

   ...20z Update...
   Latest radar and lightning data shows a band of pre-frontal
   convection moving across the Carolinas and far southeast VA. This
   activity will continue to pose an isolated wind damage threat for
   the next few hours before moving offshore by early evening. 5% wind
   probabilities have been adjusted accordingly, and the 10% general
   thunder probability highlights regions with remaining MUCAPE ahead
   of the approaching cold front. See the previous discussion below for
   additional details.

   ..Moore.. 04/05/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/

   ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
   Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
   and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
   the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
   and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an
   east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
   will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
   coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.

   Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
   Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
   Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
   low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
   this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
   low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support
   clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
   possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
   poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
   expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.

   ...Upper Midwest...
   While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
   aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
   this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
   northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
   Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
   well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
   aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
   threat is expected to remain low.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z