SPC AC 080554

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
   AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms with a threat for isolated severe wind gusts and a
   brief tornado will be possible today into tonight from parts of the
   southern Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
   Valleys.

   ...Southern Plains/Ozarks...
   At the start of the period, a mid-level trough and an associated jet
   streak will be located in the southern High Plains. An axis of weak
   instability is forecast from northwest Texas northeastward across
   Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z along parts of
   this corridor, supported by a strong low-level jet. Forecast
   soundings near the instability axis this morning have MLCAPE around
   750 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range. Low to
   mid-level lapse rates should be modest remaining in the 6 to 6.5
   C/km range. This should be enough for an isolated hail threat with
   cells that rotate. In addition, a fast northeastward storm motion
   could be enough to produce marginally severe winds at the surface. A
   brief tornado will also be possible. The isolated severe threat
   could persist into the afternoon as the line moves into the Ozarks.

   ...Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
   A mid-level trough, and an associated 55 to 65 knot low-level jet,
   will move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley this
   afternoon. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will take
   place, with surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s and
   lower 60s F over much of the mid Mississippi Valley. In response, an
   axis of weak instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from
   central Arkansas northeastward into south-central Illinois. A line
   of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop along the instability
   axis in the late afternoon and early evening. This line should move
   east-northeastward across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
   Valleys. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis
   at 00Z have MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to
   70 knot range. This, combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the
   trough, will support a marginal severe threat. Any line segment that
   can become organized could produce isolated severe wind gusts, and
   possibly a brief tornado. 

   At this point, there is uncertainty as to where the greatest severe
   threat will be as the system ejects northeastward across the mid
   Mississippi Valley. It is possible that the potential for severe
   wind gusts could become maximized near the exit region of the
   mid-level jet streak early this evening from east-central Missouri
   across central Illinois into western Indiana. For this reason, have
   expanded the Marginal Risk area northeastward to account for this
   possibility.

   ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 01/08/2026

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