SPC AC 280031

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0731 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

   Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND OVER DEEP
   SOUTH TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts
   remain possible across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi
   Valleys.

   ...01z Update...

   Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak disturbance over
   the central Plains, shifting slowly east along the southern fringe
   of the northern Plains ridge. This feature appears partly
   responsible for ongoing cluster of convection that has developed
   from near GRB to northwest of MHK. This activity is noted along the
   northeastern plume of steeper low-level lapse rates where surface
   temperatures likely reached convective temperatures (mid 80s). Wind
   fields favor organized updrafts, and LLJ is expected to strengthen
   across northeast KS over the next several hours. Latest thinking is
   this cluster should gradually shift downstream into northeast KS
   with an attendant risk for hail, and perhaps some wind gusts.
   Otherwise, more elevated convection is likely again after sunset
   along the nose of the LLJ into southern IA/northern MO. Hail is the
   primary risk with these storms.

   Farther south, an expansive MCS is migrating across deep South TX
   into the northwestern Gulf Basin. Trailing band of strong storms
   will soon propagate across the lower Rio Grande Valley and off the
   Coast. A secondary weak short-wave trough may contribute to another
   bout of strong convection later tonight, especially as LLJ is
   maintained into this region; however, extensive convective
   overturning has disrupted the instability field across this region
   and the prospect for organized severe appears somewhat limited.

   ..Darrow.. 03/28/2025

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