SPC AC 070530

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

   ...AZ/NM...
   A low-latitude shortwave trough should drift southeastward, west of 
   Baja CA. A plume of eastern Pacific mid-level moisture within a weak
   warm conveyor should spread into parts of far southeast AZ later
   this morning, shifting east across southern NM through the
   afternoon. This might yield minimal elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below
   100 J/kg) within predominately marginal temperatures for charge
   separation. As such, thunder probabilities for this regime appear to
   be below 10 percent.

   In its wake, isolated thunderstorms should be focused over southeast
   AZ this afternoon as meager surface-based buoyancy (MLCAPE below 500
   J/kg) develops. Large-scale ascent appears nebulous in the wake of
   the leading warm advection plume, but sufficient orographic lift
   should exist to support a few cells. Guidance does differ on the
   degree of storm coverage though, with the 00Z RRFS/ECMWF on the more
   aggressive spectrum.

   ..Grams.. 02/07/2026

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