SPC AC 210518

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are possible across southern New England
   Thursday morning.

   ...Southern New England...

   Strong upper low will shift southeast from the Great Lakes into the
   upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. This evolution will encourage
   low-level warm advection across southern New England as a surface
   low repositions itself off the middle Atlantic coast, south of Long
   Island. Forecast soundings suggest weak elevated buoyancy will
   develop north of this boundary as mid-level lapse rates will steepen
   as 500mb temperatures cool in advance of the approaching trough.
   Strongest elevated updrafts may exceed levels necessary for
   lightning discharge, but this should mainly be prior to 18z.
   Thereafter, deepest convection will focus offshore.

   ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/21/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z