SPC AC 180107

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0807 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

   Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will continue tonight especially across Kansas
   into far eastern Nebraska and Iowa, northwest Missouri and southern
   Minnesota. This includes an increasing evening-time potential for
   damaging winds aside from continued tornado and large hail risks
   regionally.

   ...Central/southern Plains to Upper Midwest...
   General regional trends will be for ongoing storms to continue to
   grow upscale with increasing damaging wind potential this evening.
   However, tornado potential (including a few strong) will continue
   with embedded/semi-discrete supercells this evening, including near
   the southern Minnesota warm frontal vicinity, and farther
   south-southwest across far eastern Nebraska/western Iowa and
   northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, and perhaps with southern
   peripheral development near the dryline across southern Kansas.
   Scenario is supported by a moist/unstable air mass, along with
   dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly winds in the lowest
   2-3 km AGL, a trend already noted in regional WSR-88D VWP data as
   supplemental to 00z observed soundings from Omaha/Topeka/Norman and
   Springfield, Missouri.

   ..Guyer.. 05/18/2026

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