SPC AC 060059

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across the southern and
   central Plains tonight. Several tornadoes (some possibly strong),
   large to very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. Isolated
   severe gusts are also possible the next few hours over parts of the
   Northeast.

   ...01z Update...

   Early-evening satellite imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is
   cresting an elongated southern-U.S. ridge over the High Plains. This
   feature is currently located over eastern CO/northeast NM and will
   approach the MO Ozark region by the end of the period. Partly in
   response to this feature, LLJ should increase ahead of the short
   wave over the next few hours across western OK into extreme southern
   KS. As a result, a corridor of increasing low-level warm advection
   is expected to focus along the KS/OK border and this should
   encourage significant convective development by mid evening. 00z
   sounding from AMA exhibited around 3000 J/kg SBCAPE with around 50kt
   0-6km shear and minimal CINH. This air mass will be drawn into the
   aforementioned warm-advection corridor and readily convect as the
   LLJ increases.

   Farther southwest, a cluster of supercells persists across the TX
   South Plains along the periphery of early-day rain-cooled boundary
   layer. LLJ is expected to aid this activity as it propagates
   east-southeast across northwest TX.

   Very large hail, along with a continued risk for tornadoes persists
   with this activity. If supercell mergers evolve into an MCS then
   damaging winds may become more common later this evening.

   ...Northeast...

   A small cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms continues across
   northeast PA into southern NY ahead of a weak short-wave trough.
   Latest radar data suggests a weak MCV may be evident over Tioga
   County PA, and this may encourage convection immediately downstream
   into Delaware County NY over the next few hours.

   ..Darrow.. 06/06/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z