SPC AC 131948

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0148 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

   Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

   ...20z Update...
   The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
   may to the thunder line along the southern TX Gulf Coast where a
   cold pool associated with offshore convection is spreading onshore.
   Thunderstorm coverage is still expected to increase later this
   afternoon/evening across southeast TX and southern LA, but the
   potential for severe thunderstorms remains limited.

   ..Moore.. 12/13/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025/

   ...Southeast TX/Southwest LA...
   Morning satellite loops confirm northward transport of low-level
   moisture into parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. 
   This trend will continue this afternoon and evening as a shallow
   surface cold front sags southward through the region.  Model
   guidance suggests that weak but sufficient instability will develop
   after dark from southeast TX into southwest LA to result in a few
   pre-frontal thunderstorms.  Shear is weak, and limited CAPE will
   preclude organized severe storms.  However, small hail is possible
   in the strongest cores tonight.

   ...FL...
   A low-latitude disturbance crossing the Gulf and a northward
   moisture flux ahead of it will contribute to thunderstorm potential
   across the Florida Keys/Florida Straits today, and also across the
   southern Florida Peninsula tonight. Severe thunderstorms are
   unlikely with these scenarios.

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