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Current U.S. Mesoscale Discussions
Current United States Mesoscale Discussions
Current United States Mesoscale Discussion Legend
   SPC AC 220530

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains into the lower
   Mississippi Valley today. A marginal tornado threat and potential
   for strong wind gusts will be possible.

   ...Southeast Texas/Louisiana...
   An upper-level low will move eastward across the central High Plains
   today as west-southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the southern
   Plains. A cold front will advance southeastward onto the Texas
   Coastal Plains today. Thunderstorms may be ongoing along or ahead of
   the front at the start of the period. As the front moves
   southeastward across southeast Texas around midday, convective
   coverage should increase as surface temperatures warm and weak
   destabilization occurs. Forecast soundings this afternoon ahead of
   the front from Houston northeastward into north-central Louisiana
   increase MLCAPE to around 500-800 J/kg and have moderate deep-layer
   shear profiles. This environment should support a marginal
   wind-damage threat with the stronger cells ahead of the front. If
   isolated discrete cells can develop well ahead of the front along
   the instability corridor, then a marginal tornado threat will also
   be possible.

   ..Broyles/Nauslar.. 11/22/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        





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