SPC AC 280109

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0809 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

   Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   WEST-CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST KS...NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...AND
   WEST-CENTRAL MT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Storms capable of producing severe hail and wind remain possible
   this evening across west-central Nebraska into northwest Kansas.
   Localized wind damage also remains possible over parts of the
   Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Storms with localized severe gusts will
   continue through the evening across west-central Montana.

   ...Central Plains...
   Earlier supercells have congealed into a small southward-moving
   cluster across northwest NE. Steep lapse rates, strong buoyancy
   (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) and effective shear of 40-50 kt (as
   observed on the 00Z LBF sounding) within a northwesterly flow regime
   will continue to support organized storms through the evening. The
   severe-wind (potentially exceeding 75 mph) threat associated with
   this small MCS is expected to spread towards parts of southwest NE
   and northwest KS. Any embedded supercells or discrete cells along
   the periphery of the cluster will also remain capable of producing
   large hail, given the favorable thermodynamic environment and
   relatively elongated hodographs. Longevity of this cluster into late
   tonight is uncertain, due to increasing MLCINH and generally modest
   large-scale ascent. Some severe potential could spread as far as
   west-central/southwest KS before diminishing. 

   ...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
   Scattered strong to locally severe storms are ongoing this evening
   from the northern Mid-Atlantic into parts of the Northeast. While
   substantial convective overturning has occurred, a corridor of
   moderate MLCAPE remains in place from northern VA into eastern PA
   and southeast NE. A short-term threat for locally damaging wind and
   perhaps marginal hail may continue before storms generally weaken by
   late evening. See MCD 2157 for more information. 

   ...West-central MT...
   High-based convection is ongoing early this evening across parts of
   west-central MT. Weak buoyancy will continue to hamper storm
   intensity, but the favorable lapse rate environment will continue to
   support potential for strong to severe gusts. See MCD 2158 for more
   information. 

   ...Parts of south-central TX...
   Scattered storms across south-central TX are ongoing near a
   southward-moving composite outflow. These storms may be capable of
   producing localized damaging gusts through dusk, before weakening
   with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization.

   ..Dean.. 08/28/2026

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