SPC AC 071243

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0743 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

   Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. today
   and tonight.

   ...West-central Florida Peninsula...
   A generally similar meteorological setup as yesterday is expected,
   with any strong/severe storm risk focused near/east of a weak
   surface wave, and along a front that extends from the northeast Gulf
   east-northeastward across the middle part of the Peninsula.
   Scattered showers with some thunderstorms are occurring early this
   morning either side of the front, and cloud cover is prevalent,
   although scattered cloud breaks are noted offshore over the eastern
   Gulf. A moist environment resides near/south of the front, with
   prevalent 70s F surface dewpoints and a 2.53 inch Precipitable Water
   value as sampled per the 12z observed Tampa Bay sounding. However,
   given cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, lapse rates will remain
   poor with limited overall instability and thin buoyancy profiles,
   which will tend to limit storm vigor.

   Vertical wind shear will also be modest (effective shear generally
   25 kt or less), and while 1-3 km AGL flow will remain weak, some
   low-level veering will yield some hodograph curvature that could
   support transient supercell potential. While waterspout potential
   will exist offshore, it is unclear if tornadic waterspout-producing
   storms will reach the west-central Florida Peninsula and/or if
   supercells will develop inland. Current thinking is that today's
   severe risk will remain low, but any need for severe probabilities
   will continue to be re-evaluated in subsequent outlooks.

   ...Northern New York...
   Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
   more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
   upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy will
   be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
   thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
   are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the
   low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
   boundary layer.

   ..Guyer/Dean.. 10/07/2026

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