SPC AC 030030

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0630 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

   Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

   ...01z Update...

   Seasonally strong short-wave trough is advancing east across the
   Great Basin early this evening. Large-scale ascent is spreading
   downstream ahead of this feature into southern WY where isolated
   thunderstorms are currently noted, especially over Carbon County,
   just east of Rawlins. This activity appears to be aided by the 500mb
   speed max and steep 0-6km lapse rates. 00z soundings from RIW, GJT,
   and LKN all support this with 8-9 C/km values, but only ~0.35 inch
   PW. Very weak buoyancy will continue to support lighting with weak
   convection this evening.

   Later tonight, surface warm front will advance north into the Ozarks
   and 850mb warm advection will increase along the cool side of the
   boundary. While 00z sounding from SGF exhibited a very strong cap,
   and negligible instability, weak MUCAPE should gradually increase
   later tonight and isolated elevated convection is expected to
   develop across the MO/IL region.

   ..Darrow.. 03/03/2026

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z