Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1132 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 24 2024 - 12Z Thu Apr 25 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

...In and near OK...
Guidance continues to show an area of convective development
across central and eastern OK within a low- level convergence field
associated with a stalled boundary over the southern Plains north
of the Red River. The atmosphere is expected to be uncapped, based
on 700 hPa temperatures forecast. Modest instability located over
the region due to active return flow regime will aid in the
convective pattern and create an environment capable of low- end
flash flooding concerns, especially within any training cells
within the confines of the stalled front. All guidance, to some
degree has a QPF maximum between north- central OK over into the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Spread within the model guidance remains
high, both in placement and magnitude; the 00z ECMWF remains the
wettest. The overall synoptic pattern of precipitable water values
approaching 1.5", CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, and enough 850 hPa
inflow/effective bulk shear to support organized convection. Hourly
rain totals to 2" with local amounts to 4" are possible within
this environment. Higher FFG indices/drier soils are in place over
many of the areas that could receive heavy rainfall. The general
model trend has been slightly northward, away from the more
sensitive soils caused by recent heavy rainfall near the Red River
of the South. Considering the setup, once the guidance shows better
convergence, a Marginal Risk could be in the offing.

Roth