Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
722 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 03 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...

20z Update: There was a minor southward trend in the new model
guidance, but overall the inherited Marginal risk still looks in
good shape. Based on the 12z HREF and global models it is
increasingly likely that an axis of rain locally over 2" will occur
across portions of southern IN/OH, with 3" amounts possible. This
may result in some minor runoff issues, although generally lower
rainfall rates and dry soil conditions should limit the extent of
impacts.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

Models remain consistent in developing an axis of precipitation
along a warm front extending generally from southeastern Kansas
eastward along the Ohio River Valley. Models do vary, however, with
specific location of this front. Areas of 0.5-1.5 inch of rainfall
are expected within the Marginal Risk area, with a few spots
exceeding 2 inches possible. The nature of the front (parallel to
westerly steering flow aloft) will enable some training, and if
deeper convection can organize (as suggested by the ECMWF), locally
higher amounts may be observed. Antecedent dry conditions continue
to remain a limiting factor for flash flood potential as much of
the region has very high soils and is in drought. A few issues with
runoff are possible - with potential maximized in the Marginal
Risk area during the 00Z-12Z Wed 4 Mar forecast period.

Cook


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt