Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 28 2026 - 12Z Thu Oct 29 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR EAST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

21Z Update..

Similarly to the Day 1 update, very minimal changes were made to
the inherited Day 2 ERO. A minor reduction was made to the
southern portion of the existing Marginal Risk area in east-central
Florida to match the latest suite of guidance of hi-res and global
guidance. Otherwise, the previous outlook and discussion remain in
good shape.

Blanco-Alcala

..Previous Discussion..

...East Coast of Florida...

The area of low pressure near the Bahamas will gain momentum on
Wednesday as the upper level energy splits, with a portion of the
energy being swept into the Atlantic while another portions shifts
southeast across South Florida. This will result in another day of
northeasterly flow with showers and storms moving onshore along the
Florida East Coast. The band of moisture on the northern side of
the system will shift north and increase PWATs to around 2 inches
across much of Central and South Florida. The environment will also
become more unstable as the surface reflection of the low shifts
southeast towards South Florida. MUCAPE values are expected to rise
to around 800-1200 J/kg in Central and South Florida, which will
support deeper convection capable of producing high rainfall rates
(1.5-2.5 inches per hour) at times. Hi-res and global models are in
agreement that the highest rainfall totals should materialize near
the East-Central Florida Coast, with some earlier convection
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall over portions of
Southeast Florida as well. Given recent heavy rainfall and the
sensitivity of the urban I-95 corridor, there is a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall for portions of East-Central and Southeast
Florida where isolated instances of flash flooding will be
possible.

Dolan


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt