Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...North Texas/Southern Oklahoma...
Additional shortwave energy likely to push east southeastward late
Sunday afternoon/evening from the lee of the Central to Southern
Rockies into the Southern Plains. This will again re-strengthen
the low level flow into the west to east oriented front forecast to
remain across the Southern Plains, supporting another round of
organized convection along the front. There is fairly good
agreement on the day 3 qpf axes in the models. resulting in good
continuity with the slight risk area. The marginal risk area was
extended farther to the northwest into southeast Colorado to cover
the model qpf spread.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern-Central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic...

Broadly diffluent mid to upper level flow expected day 3 ahead of
the height falls pushing out of the Mid to Lower MS Valley, TN and
OH Valley region. With PW values expected to be above average...1.5
to 2+ standard deviations above the mean...widespread scattered
convection possible from the Lower MS Valley, across the Southern
to Central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. The previous
marginal risk area that was across the South was extended north
through the Southern to Central Appalachians and into the Mid-
Atlantic across the lower FFG values.


Oravec

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt