Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
722 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NORTH TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

20z Update: Forecast still looks on track. The consensus axis of
heaviest rainfall this period is across eastern OK, northwest AR
and southern MO. Persistent moisture transport and upper level
divergence should allow for some repeat/training activity across
this corridor, with amounts locally exceeding 3". A Slight risk may
eventually be needed across this area, but will continue to hold
off for now given the dry antecedent conditions. High enough
rainfall rates could still overcome this and result in an isolated
to scattered flash flood threat. The Marginal risk was extended
into portions of the OH valley, as this should be the 2nd day in a
row of locally heavy rainfall, and there was a modest uptick in QPF
this cycle across this corridor.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

Low-level warm advection will intensify across the southern Plains
and Ozarks as a mid-level wave approaches the central Plains
(while taking a neutral tilt) throughout the forecast period. As
this occurs, low-level cyclogenesis and strengthening of a surface
cold front over eastern Kansas/Oklahoma will foster areas of deep
convection that should migrate northeastward across the Marginal
Risk area. Models suggest that initial convection should
materialize as scattered clusters within the broader warm conveyor
from north Texas into Missouri, with a gradual congealing into a
forward-propagating complex late in the period. Specific spatial
details regarding this evolution are unclear, but areas of 2-3.5
inches of rainfall appear to be likely where cells can repeat/merge
on a localized basis. Soil moistures/antecedent conditions are
quite dry, however, casting some doubt on the runoff potential
across the region. Nevertheless, varied/locally sensitive terrain
(especially in the Ozarks) and heavy rainfall suggests at least
isolated runoff issues can be expected. Depending of specific
convective evolution, a Slight Risk may be needed in portions of
Missouri in later outlooks.

Farther northeast (into Indiana and Ohio), the D3 forecast period
will mark a second consecutive day of potential 1 inch rainfall
along/near a surface warm front across the region. Overall
instability profiles remain marginal, but with wetting soils, a
gradual increase in excessive runoff potential may necessitate a
Marginal Risk area in later outlooks.

Cook

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt