Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu May 21 2026 - 12Z Fri May 22 2026

...THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...Southern Plains...

The combination of several ingredients coming together across
eastern Oklahoma and north Texas will be the driver for rounds of
training convection expected across the area. At the surface, the
nose of a low level jet will advance northward over Oklahoma,
spiking the PWATs over 1.5 inches this morning. Surface convergence
around a trough will support low level lift and thunderstorm
formation. An approaching upper level trough will increase the
divergence and lift in the upper levels. The result will be a
rather narrow corridor at first with mostly showers but some
thunderstorms by early afternoon, as the day is approaching peak
heating. Cold pools and speed convergence will focus the
convection, allowing training to become more likely as the storms
track northeastward. A secondary wave of thunderstorms will move
northward across north Texas, which will increase the areal
coverage of convection into the early evening hours. The
strengthening upper level shortwave driving this secondary wave
will become the primary forcing, allowing the complex of weakening
storms tonight to push northward and end the rainfall threat from
south to north. While the greatest flash flooding threat may be in
a rather narrow corridor from north Texas north and east through
Tulsa, sufficient Gulf moisture could still allow for flash
flooding in other areas as well.

The inherited Slight Risk was split with this update owing to
better CAMs agreement that from north Texas through Oklahoma will
be the best area for flash flooding risk, but less rainfall is
expected across east central Texas, between Houston and the
Metroplex, allowing for a downgrade to the risk in that area.

...Upper Texas Coast into Southwest Louisiana...

A large complex of storms currently over South Texas will push
northeast up the Texas Coast through the day today. The area will
have abundant Gulf moisture, instability, and some limited support
from the upper levels. Thus, any storms will be capable of very
heavy rainfall, but the time of the heavy rainfall in any one area
may be limited as the complex progresses northeastward. The area
was hit hard with very heavy rain yesterday, resulting in rainfall
totals over 5 inches near Freeport. As this second round of storms
moves through this morning, convergence into the storms, sea breeze
effects, and the saturated soils from yesterday's rains could
result in additional instances of flash flooding. The storms
continue into the Houston Metro around midday, introducing an urban
factor to the flash flooding threat. The storms then turn more
northward through the afternoon, ending the flash flooding threat
for the day along the coast. To summarize, the Slight Risk, albeit
a low- end one, remains in place mostly for the potential for very
heavy rains with PWATs approaching 2 inches and the favorably wet
soils overcoming the fast movement of the storms to result in flash
flooding.

Wegman

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt