Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025
Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Dec 14 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 15 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER A PORTION OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON...

Maintained the Marginal Risk area over parts of the Olympic and
northern Cascade Ranges in Washington as the next real push of
moisture approaches later tonight into the early morning hours of
Monday. Any rainfall in Washington before then should be light and
on the periphery of a rain area directed on-shore north of the
international border. By 15/00Z...precipitable water values should
be approaching 1 inch along the coast as 850 mb winds approach the
Washington/Oregon coast. Initially the 850 mb winds should have
more of a southerly than a westerly component...but eventually they
do take on a more orthogonal component to the Washington coast
ranges and Olympics. That is when the best chance for any excessive
rainfall is expected. Model guidance remains in the 0.5 to 0.75
inch range with locally 1.5 inches of precipitation focused in the
terrain. While these amounts are pretty modest for this part of the
country...the area remains hydrologically sensitive given the
recent heavy to excessive rainfall event from earlier in the week
and even this amount of rainfall could result in renewed hydrologic
concerns.

Cook/Bann

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt