Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Oct 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...Florida...

A very slow moving, but strong front will remain draped across the
Florida Peninsula today, specifically over the northern Florida
Peninsula. A tropical air mass to the south of the front, over the
Peninsula, characterized by PWATs above 2.25 inches will be
uplifted against a much cooler and drier air mass to the north.
This clash of air masses will promote a continued rinse- and-
repeat pattern, with widespread light to moderate rainfall
continuing along I-4, and generally south of I-10. As on previous
days, localized convection will remain possible. Where convection
forms, the abundance of moisture will support locally heavy
rainfall. The sluggish movement of any convection will prolong any
associated heavy rainfall. Thus, a Marginal Risk remains in place
for the possibility that any convection that develops will impact
an urban or specifically flood-prone area.

...Four Corners Region...

Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible
across the Four Corners Region this afternoon. Instability values
are expected to peak on either side of 500 J/kg, which could allow
for any storms that form to produce locally heavy rainfall.
Convective coverage appears to remain isolated, so the subsequent
flash flooding potential appears to be sub-Marginal, but the area
will need to be monitored.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt