Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Oct 27 2026 - 12Z Wed Oct 28 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...

16Z Update..

Virtually no change was made to the inherited Day 1 ERO with this
update. Easterly onshore flow associated with a surface low
pressure system based over the Bahamas is still expected to
provide moisture for thunderstorms, but meagar instability and
high FFGs will limit the possibility of widespread flash flooding.
Isolated instances of flash flooding still remain possible, but
this should be fairly confined to the east coast of Florida. As
such, the MRGL risk was kept with very minimal adjustments.

Blanco-Alcala

..Previous Discussion..

...Southeast Florida...

An area of low pressure will linger over the Bahamas while
gradually moving northwards, resulting in persistent northeasterly
flow across much of Florida. Moisture wrapping around the
circulation will be directed into Southeast Florida, bringing PWAT
values up to 1.7-2 inches. The low will trigger scattered showers
and storms over the Atlantic that will migrate into the Southeast
Florida coast. Instability will be fairly limited, but there should
be enough MUCAPE (400-800 J/kg) over the Atlantic waters and the
immediate Southeast Florida coast to support a some storms with
locally heavy rainfall (rates 1-2 inches per hour). These rainfall
rates will generally fall below FFGs, but persistent showers
throughout the day and into tonight will allow for isolated higher
rainfall amounts that could lead to flash flooding. Hi-res model
guidance shows the highest rainfall totals (generally 1-2 inches,
locally up to 4 inches) focusing along the Southeast Florida coast,
impacting the I-95 corridor, an area that has received several
rounds of rainfall over the past few days. Given recent heavy rains
and the urban environment, there is a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall leading to isolated instances of flash flooding in
Southeast Florida.

Dolan


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt