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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 211526

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0926 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

   Valid 211700Z - 221200Z

   The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
   Recent 15 UTC surface observations show winds increasing to around
   15 mph with occasionally stronger gusts and RH falling into the
   30-40% range. This aligns well with recent guidance and supports the
   ongoing forecast (outlined in the discussion below).

   ..Moore.. 11/21/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   With a strong upper low over the lower Great Lakes region, strong
   flow aloft will overspread portions of the Southeast into Florida. A
   deepening low east of the DelMarVa will promote enhanced surface
   wind behind the cold front. With minimal precipitation falling over
   North Florida, where fuels are quite dry for this time of year, a
   period of elevated fire weather is expected. Winds of 10-15 mph and
   RH perhaps near 20% in some spots can be expected by the afternoon.
   The boundary layer should also deepen sufficiently to support gusts
   of up to 20 mph.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210551

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1151 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   A similar upper-level pattern to Thursday will again be present on
   Friday. The strong upper low will continue east and a complex
   surface low evolution will occur off the Mid-Atlantic/New England
   coast. Fire weather conditions are expected to be minimal for most
   areas. Northern into central Florida will again be dry. Temperature
   will be a bit cooler and RH will be a bit higher. Boundary layer
   mixing will also be less than Thursday, tempering gust potential.
   With the strongest winds/lowest RH expected over less receptive
   fuels, highlights will be withheld. Locally elevated conditions can
   be expected.

   ..Wendt.. 11/21/2024


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202057

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   Fire weather concerns remain limited through the extended period.
   Medium and long-range ensemble guidance continues to depict a
   synoptic regime unfavorable for widespread fire weather potential
   through at least early next week. The upper trough currently over
   the upper MS River valley is expected to gradually shift east over
   the next few days and will support somewhat widespread precipitation
   chances across the Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, and Northeast. An
   amplification of the upper trough across the inter-mountain West and
   Plains through the weekend will promote dry, but relatively benign
   conditions across the Southwest/Rockies. The development of a lee
   cyclone along the northern High Plains on D4/Saturday may support a
   dry return flow regime across the southern Plains, but recent
   rainfall will likely limit fuel status. Ensemble cluster analyses
   suggest a breakdown of the upper ridge is likely by early next week
   with the potential for one or more upper waves migrating across the
   Southwest/southern High Plains during the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday
   time period. While no strong signals are noted in recent ensemble
   and deterministic solutions, these waves could present opportunities
   for fire weather concerns across parts of the western Plains where
   little rainfall is expected through the middle of next week.

   ..Moore.. 11/20/2024
      




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