ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 171945

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...Southeastern Wyoming...
   Elevated highlights have been added to portions of southeastern WY
   for Saturday. A large scale upper ridge over the central U.S. and
   Intermountain West will promote unseasonably warm temperatures and
   dry surface conditions to portions of the central and northern
   Plains. A surface low developing in southwestern WY will aid in
   stronger easterly low-level flow of 10-15 mph across eastern WY.
   These winds along with minimum RH of 15-20% will support elevated
   fire weather conditions over exceptionally dry fuels (ERC values
   around the 95-98th percentile) Saturday afternoon. 

   ...Columbia Basin, Idaho Panhandle, interior Oregon and adjacent
   areas of California and Nevada...
   Stronger mid-level southwest flow will linger over the Pacific
   Northwest as an upper trough moves northeastward into British
   Columbia. Dry, downslope flow in the lee of the Cascades and
   northern Sierra Nevada will support RH of 15-20 percent by
   mid-afternoon Saturday. These dry conditions along with receptive
   fuels will support an elevated fire weather concern for the region
   with impacts to active wildfires in the Pacific Northwest expected.
   Latest model guidance suggests stronger surface winds across the ID
   Panhandle Saturday under the 50-55 knot mid-level jet. This should
   promote sustained winds of around 15 mph (locally higher favorable
   terrain gaps) across the ID Panhandle Saturday. Due to potential for
   impact from lightning ignitions from Day 1/Friday, extended elevated
   highlights into ID Panhandle to cover this fire weather threat.

   ..Williams.. 07/17/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Between a midlevel trough moving across BC and an expansive
   large-scale ridge over the central/western CONUS, enhanced
   deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deep/dry
   boundary layer (around 10-15 percent RH) in the lee of the northern
   Sierra and Cascades. These dry conditions combined with around 15
   mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated
   fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given dry/receptive
   fuels.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172142

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0442 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   ...Discussion...
   A broad mid-level ridge will dominate over much of Intermountain
   West through next week as troughing across the northeastern U.S.
   amplifies midweek. Monsoon moisture trapped within weak flow under
   the ridge and afternoon instability will support daily afternoon
   showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain across the Colorado
   River Basin and eastern Great Basin. This higher RH environment and
   slow moving, terrain anchored convection will mitigate ignition
   potential. Mainly dry conditions will persist across the interior
   portions of the Pacific Northwest and CA through Day 4/Monday. Short
   wave impulses on the western periphery of the upper ridge could
   bring thunderstorms back into CA as early as Monday. Longer term
   model guidance suggests better chances of dry thunderstorm impacts
   for the Pacific Northwest emerging for the latter part of next week
   as moisture from tropical storm Elida gets wrapped up in a
   mid-latitude trough.

   The building ridge aloft and lack of robust surface pressure
   features across the West will keep winds relatively light across the
   western coastal states where fuels are more receptive. Longer term
   ensemble guidance suggests a return to breezy conditions across
   portions of CA and the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 7/Thursday
   where 40 percent critical probabilities have been added to
   northeastern CA/southern OR. Ensemble cluster analysis suggests a
   more inland push of an upper-trough into the Pacific Northwest on
   Day 8/Friday, with a broader 40 percent critical probability area
   introduced into much of central OR, northeastern CA and adjacent
   northwest NV. The thunderstorm threat across CA and the Pacific
   Northwest remains very sensitive to the expected track of a
   subtropical moisture plume from tropical storm Elida. Thunderstorms
   could threaten central/northern CA as early as Day 5/Tuesday, moving
   into the Pacific Northwest by Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday. For this
   outlook, introduced a 10 percent dry thunderstorm probability for
   initial surge of subtropical moisture into northern CA and southern
   OR, although this could change based on future model guidance.

   ..Williams.. 07/17/2026