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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 171603
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 171700Z - 181200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
IN CALIFORNIA...
The overall forecast remains on track today as the threat of
dangerous fire weather continues across the southern High Plains.
Slight adjustments were made to expand the northern extent of the
Extremely Critical area over far northeastern NM, far southeastern
CO, and southwestern KS. The latest forecast guidance indicates that
the placement of the dryline remains as anticipated with the
previous forecast issuance. That being said, the Extremely Critical
conditions are expected to impact areas just behind the dryline, so
the risk gradient was tightened across this area. Farther west, the
existing Elevated area was expanded, over portions of southern UT
and northern AZ, though fuels are comparatively less receptive. Even
so, fire weather risk amid west-southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph
combined with 10-20% minimum RHs over these regions is worth
highlighting. Additionally, expect winds to quickly turn northerly
behind a significant cold front sweeping across the country, which
will arrive over southern UT around sunset this evening.
..Stearns.. 05/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026/
...Synopsis...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across the
southern High Plains today***
A deepening mid-level trough across the Rockies will support
appreciable surface low intensification across the central Plains
today. The combination of strong downslope flow from the Rockies, in
tandem with gradient westerly flow, will support very dry and windy
conditions across portions of the Southwest into the southern High
Plains. With above average fuel loading of very dry grasses and
holdovers from previous fires already present across the southern
High Plains, the very dry and windy conditions will promote a
volatile setup for rapid, dangerous wildfire spread potential.
...Southern High Plains...
A dryline will sharpen along the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma
border during the afternoon, with a very dry boundary layer expected
to mix up to at least 600 mb behind the dryline, from central New
Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and southwestern Kansas areas. While
gradient westerly surface flow will increase through the day,
downward mixing of stronger flow aloft in the post-dryline
environment will support widespread 25-30 mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-15 percent RH. These
conditions are likely across much of New Mexico to the immediate
dryline vicinity, where Critical highlights have been maintained.
Extremely Critical highlights have been adjusted to where guidance
consensus shows the longest term overlap of the aforementioned
winds/RH with loaded fuels exceeding the 95th percentile. While the
sustained surface winds may fall just shy of typical Extremely
Critical criteria, the combination of fuel loading and potential
pre-existing holdovers of earlier fire starts suggests that a
volatile landscape will be in place to support dangerous
wildfire-spread potential.
...California Central Valley Region...
Deep-layer north-northwesterly flow will overspread the Central
Valley region as a mid-level jet streak overspreads California on
the backside of an upper trough. Downslope flow from the higher
terrain will support surface winds exceeding 25 mph in spots as RH
dips to the 15-20 percent range. Given dry fuels, Critical
highlights have been introduced to the Sacramento Valley region.
Broader Elevated highlights extend into the San Joaquin Valley,
where 15+ mph sustained northerly winds will overlap with 15-20
percent RH.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 171926
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
The threat of dangerous fire weather conditions is expected to
continue again tomorrow (Monday) over the southern High Plains.
Slight adjustments were made to the outlook areas over the Southwest
and southern High Plains. The Extremely Critical was expanded very
slightly eastward to include additional portions of southwest KS and
much of the remainder of the OK/TX Panhandles. These changes were
again made to tighten the risk gradient near the anticipated
position of the dryline. Although not expected to be a factor
affecting the current northern extent of the drawn risk areas, the
impending cold front passage will impact any suppression efforts
across northern portions of the highlighted area late on Day
2/Monday. The latest forecast guidance suggests that this front will
reach southwest KS around 00Z. The Elevated area was also expanded
to include much of the remainder of the state of NM and slightly
more of south-central CO.
Over California, much of the Sacramento Valley was again added to an
Elevated risk area for Day 2/Monday. Forecast guidance indicates
that north/northeasterly winds sustained at 15-25 mph will overlap
10-20% RH across northern portions of the Central Valley from just
after noon local time through sunset.
..Stearns.. 05/17/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026/
...Synopsis...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected for parts of the
southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday)***
A pronounced mid-level trough will advance to the central CONUS,
encouraging the deepening of a surface low along the Kansas and
Oklahoma borders, resulting in another day of volatile fire weather
conditions behind a dryline and ahead of a surface cold front over
the southern High Plains. The combination of downslope and gradient
flow in the post-dryline environment will support widespread 20-30
mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH,
necessitating Critical highlights from New Mexico to the Texas
Panhandle and southwest Kansas areas. Extremely Critical highlights
have also been added across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles into far southwestern Kansas. Here guidance consensus is
strongest in sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 30 mph
amid single-digit RH. Given loaded fuels with ERCs exceeding the
95th percentile, any new or rejuvenated fire ignitions may spread at
a life threateningly rapid pace.
By evening, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern High
Plains, approaching from the north. As such, west-southwesterly
surface winds will quickly shift to northerly around 6-9 PM local
time, which may result in a rapid, dangerous change in direction of
forward movement to any ongoing wildfire fronts.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 172139
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
A progressive mid-level synoptic pattern is expected to persist
across the central CONUS through mid-week. The primary mid-level
trough driving current fire weather concerns (on Day 1/Sunday and
Day 2/Monday) will eject northeastward into the Plains, driving a
cold front with precipitation through the central US. Behind the
front will overspread a combination of below normal temperatures and
fairly widespread precipitation across much of the central and
eastern portions of the CONUS as the synoptic flow begins to
stabilize through the end of the work week. This will briefly dampen
the fire weather threat across much of the country on Tuesday and
likely continuing through next weekend. This could support
additional green up in some locations, particularly across the
northern CONUS, that have thus far been struggling to grow
fire-slowing vegetation. However, much longer duration precipitation
and cool conditions would be needed to appreciably improve heavy
dead fuel moisture and resultant ERCs.
...Southwest...
On Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday, lingering moderately strong
mid-level flow overhead as the trough begins to lift northeast will
contribute to additional chances, albeit less certain, for critical
wind/RH over portions of the Southwest. While the footprint may be
slightly different from one day to the other, daytime southwest
winds sustained at 10-20 mph will combine with minimum RHs of
10-20%. Thus, 40% probabilities of critical conditions remain in the
forecast over portions of AZ and NM.
..Stearns.. 05/17/2026
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