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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 271643
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN/SOUTHERN
NEVADA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH...WESTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected today across
eastern Utah, western Colorado, and the Four Corners region.***
...Morning Update...
A cold front pushed into northern UT and southwestern WY last night,
and has become nearly stationary this morning. South of the front,
very poor to essentially no RH recoveries occurred from
central-southern UT into northern AZ. Current surface observations
depict widespread critical RH values (below 15%) across the CO River
Basin as temperatures rise.
As an unseasonably strong upper trough digs into the western CONUS,
a 40-60 kt 700 mb jet will emerge downstream expanding from the AZ
Strip to the CO West Slope. Minimal cloud cover and deep
boundary-layer mixing will further reinforce stronger winds aloft to
mix down to the surface. Sustained wind speeds of 25-35 mph
(potentially up to 40 mph in terrain favored locations) will combine
with widespread 5-15% RH values atop a receptive fuelscape,
maintaining an Extremely Critical fire weather threat.
Persisting hazardous fire weather conditions -- with potential
lightning holdovers from previous days and many ongoing active
wildfires -- will generate a dangerous long duration burning period
(10+ hours for some locations) as poor overnight humidity recoveries
and lingering breezy conditions will last into Day 2/Sunday.
Additionally, a secondary cold front will push through the Great
Basin this evening, passing through western-central UT between
23z-03z, then stalling overnight along the western edge of the
Colorado Plateau. RH will increase, but winds will shift to
west/northwesterly behind the front with a few hours of strong gusts
(25 mph or greater) before eventually calming some overnight. This
cold front will likely impact a number of fires in southeastern NV
into western/central UT this evening.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026/
...Synopsis...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected today across
eastern Utah, western Colorado, and the Four Corners region.***
A robust fire weather pattern will continue across portions of the
Great Basin and Southwest today as a seasonably strong mid-level
trough continues to dig into the western CONUS and an attendant
mid-level jet amplifies across portions of the Great Basin.
Continued exceptionally dry and windy conditions following
antecedent dry thunderstorm activity will result in significant fire
weather concerns for any new ignitions, lingering holdovers, and
ongoing large fires across the western CONUS.
...Eastern Utah, western Colorado, and the Four Corners region...
As the aforementioned mid-level jet amplifies across portions of the
Great Basin, a corridor of stronger sustained, southwesterly surface
winds will expand eastward from southeastern Nevada into the Upper
Colorado River Valley. These 25-35 mph (potentially up to 40 mph in
terrain favored locations) winds will overlap very low RH values of
5-15% and receptive fuels (ERCs noted in the 80-95+ percentiles)
that were exacerbated by dry/breezy conditions on Friday. Wind gusts
of 40-50+ mph will also be possible due to deep boundary layer
mixing coupled with the strengthening mid-level jet. This will
promote extremely critical fire weather conditions from the Four
Corners region northward into eastern Utah and western Colorado and
an extended period (10+ hours of for some locations) of critical
fire weather conditions across a broader portion of the Great Basin.
In addition, isolated dry thunderstorm activity on Friday presents
an additional concern for potential lightning holdovers to emerge,
with poor overnight humidity recoveries and lingering breezy
conditions also forecast before another day of critical fire weather
concerns on D2/Sunday. A broader area of elevated wind/RH conditions
is also expected today across much of the Great Basin and Southwest
where sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph overlap low RH of
10-20%.
The primary change with this outlook was a northward expansion of
the Extremely Critical highlights owing to trends within the latest
model guidance. Brief periods of localized extremely critical
conditions are also possible farther west into southeastern Nevada
and portions of north-central Arizona (in the vicinity of recent
wildfire activity); however, confidence in an extended duration of
overlap between 30+ mph sustained winds and RH below 10% is lower
for these locations.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 271907
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH...WESTERN/CENTRAL COLORADO...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...
...Afternoon Update...
Only slight adjustments were made to the Critical and Elevated
highlights on Day 2/Sunday based on high-resolution guidance.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track for a third consecutive day
of expansive fire weather conditions across the CO Plateau. Poor
overnight humidity recoveries are expected in the Four Corners
region and southwestern CO, further exacerbating the fire
environment prior to the arrival of stronger winds in the afternoon.
At peak heating, 5-15% RH values will combine with 20-25 mph
sustained southwesterly winds where very dry fuels exist. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will
begin to pivot northeastward on D2/Sunday, with an associated
mid-level jet continuing to be oriented across the Four Corners
region and a cold front progressing slowly southeastward, and
potentially stalling, across the West. This will continue to promote
robust fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and
Southwest.
...Four Corners region...
A third consecutive day of enhanced sustained surface winds of
20-25+ mph and dry RH of 10-20% is forecast across portions of the
eastern Great Basin and Southwest on Sunday. Latest guidance
continues to depict a corridor of 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly
winds (with the potential for occasional gusts to 35-40 mph) amid
very low RH of 10-15%. With this multi-day period of dry/breezy
conditions exacerbating fuel dryness/receptiveness (and ERCs already
noted to be in the 80-95+ percentiles), several hours of critical
fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon, extending
from northern Arizona into southeastern Utah, northeastern New
Mexico, and southwestern Colorado. A broader area of elevated fire
weather conditions is expected across adjacent areas of the Great
Basin/Southwest where winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to overlap low
RH of 10-20%.
Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated/Critical highlights with
this cycle based on the latest high-res guidance, including slight
expansions of the Critical and Elevated highlights southward and
westward, respectively.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 272101
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Valid 291200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will dive into the Interior West on Day 3/Monday,
promoting strong southwesterly flow across the Southwest into the
central Rockies before gradually exiting the region on Day
4/Tuesday. Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an
established dry airmass will allow fire weather threats to continue
through next week across the Great Basin and Southwest. Meanwhile, a
strong ridge of high pressure will build across the central-eastern
CONUS through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal
temperatures with mostly dry conditions.
...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday...
Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
troughing will maintain fire weather concerns across the Southwest
and Great Basin early next week. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions
(albeit weaker than previous days) will further intensify the fire
environment where extremely dry fuels exist, maintaining 40%
Critical probabilities.
...Days 6-7/Thursday-Friday...
Ensembles depict dry and breezy conditions may continue across the
southwestern CONUS through the end of next week. As the western U.S.
upper trough begins to lift northward, resultant accelerating
south-southwesterly flow aloft should permit fire weather concerns
to return across the Southwest and Great Basin. As such, 40%
Critical probabilities have been introduced. The spatial extent of
these probabilities may change in future outlooks as the progression
of the overall synoptic pattern is better resolved.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/27/2026
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