ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 101724

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the
   latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms
   may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area.
   However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to
   a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes
   introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous
   outlook remains on track.

   ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second
   mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow
   (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the
   eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially
   appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such,
   wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS.
   Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly
   surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern
   Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where
   Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or
   breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida
   Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 102132

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

   Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

   An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains
   into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and
   thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and
   eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with
   the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida
   and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging
   will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an
   upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will
   likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest
   mid-next week. 

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values
   and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the
   southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to
   critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is
   likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next
   week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions
   of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as
   another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of
   potential critical conditions remain uncertain. 

   ...Southwest...
   Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far
   southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos
   likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances
   of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across
   portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain,
   through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to
   receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to
   increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with
   locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and
   mid-elevations by the end of next week.

   ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024