Rawlins, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

346
FXUS65 KCYS 280504
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1104 PM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are producing critical fire
  weather in Carbon County today. Near critical fire weather
  conditions are expected again Monday.

- Smoke from Arizona wildfires is drifting through, leading to
  degraded air quality in some areas.

- A strong cold front will push through the region Tuesday,
  cooling temperatures and increasing thunderstorm chances for
  Tuesday through Thursday at least.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Hot and dry weather dominates the area this afternoon as we remain
on the periphery of the broad ridge over the central and eastern
CONUS. Water vapor imagery shows a very dry airmass overhead, but a
very subtle upper level shortwave moving out of the southwest is
increasing mid to high level cloud cover from the south at this
time. Even with the clouds though, precipitable water remains
extremely low. From the latest soundings at both GJT and SLC,
precipitable water is near or below the climatological 10th
percentile. With southwest flow, this dry airmass continues to be
advected through the area today. Gusty southwest winds are also
leading to critical fire weather conditions in areas west of the
Laramie Range when considered with single digit RH in place.
Southwest flow is also continuing to advect in smoke from Arizona
wildfires. There is some diurnal timing to this, with smoke from the
previous day`s active burning arriving to our western zones in the
morning hours, and improving during the afternoon and evening hours.
Somewhat cleaner air is apparent on satellite in NW CO/NE UT this
afternoon, which will be the airmass headed our way shortly.
Therefore, we should see some improvement later this afternoon and
evening. Smoke forecasting has inherently lower confidence, but
there is some reason to assume persistence in this diurnal trend for
Monday too with increasing smoke in the morning once again.

The mid to high level cloud cover drifting in will likely hang
around until after midnight, keeping temperatures mild through much
of the evening. Skies should clear before sunrise though, allowing
for a short window of radiative cooling in valley locations. We will
be set up for another hot day on Monday. Look for 700-mb
temperatures around +16 to +18C supporting highs in the 90s to
lower 100s once again. We may see slightly more in terms of
afternoon cumulus and perhaps a virga shower or rumble of
thunder, but this will be highly isolated still. The persistent
surface high hanging out to our northeast will surge south and
west Monday night, pushing up against the mountains by Tuesday
morning. Low clouds and fog may then return to the forecast for
the High Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Tuesday, a cold front looks to push through and
provide us with our next precipitation chances in the long term.
Looking at the 700mb RH field there looks to be a little bit of
moisture associated with this front to be utilized in afternoon
convection. Wednesday, an upper level trough moves across the
Canadian Providences flattening our upper level ridge even more than
Tuesday. The synoptic ascent combined with the continued moisture
advection should continue our precipitation chances into Wednesday
night. Ensemble guidance has cooler temperatures for the rest of the
work week with temperatures in the 70`s and 80`s. However, starting
Friday the global ensembles show the area of high pressure currently
over the South and southern Midwest to retrograde back to the four
corners region of the United States. If this happens then the warm
but dry westerly flow will elevate our fire weather concerns for the
weekend as storm development may be limited to the east of the
Laramie Range in the afternoon and evening. However, if the ridge
becomes less amplified then we can expect more widespread rain
showers and thunderstorms as low pressure systems make their way
towards the Intermountain West carrying with it some monsoonal
moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Mostly quiet overnight tonight with some mid- and high-level
clouds drifting across the southeast Wyoming terminals. Light
and variable winds expected overnight with slowly clearing
skies. Mostly clear skies continue through the day with mostly
light winds.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...AM