Ranchettes, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

152
FXUS65 KCYS 130530
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1030 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snowfall is expected in the Snowy and Sierra Madre
  Ranges into Wednesday morning.

- Windy conditions will occur especially Wednesday and Thursday
  afternoons for the wind prone locations of southeast Wyoming
  such as Arlington, Bordeaux and the I-80 Summit.

- An occasionally windy and mostly dry period will occur for
  Friday through Monday, with near normal temperatures for
  Friday and below normal temperatures for Saturday through
  Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

Tonight...A fast moving open trough aloft and its associated cold
front will move from central Wyoming this evening to western
Nebraska by midnight and to central Nebraska by dawn on Wednesday.
Decent low and mid level moisture with the system, will combine with
500-300 mb and 700-500 mb quasigeostrophic lift and frontal lifting
to produce scattered to numerous mainly snow showers through this
evening, and mainly west of I-25. Precipitation coverage will be
somewhat limited east of I-25 due to low level downsloping winds in
the wake of the cold front. The inherited Winter Weather Advisory
for the Sierra Madre Range looks on track with 4 to 8 inches of
snowfall accumulation overnight, with lesser amounts in surrounding
lower elevations. Gusty winds will occur in the wake of the cold
front, though winds should remain below high wind criteria based on
low and mid level gradients and local wind models.

Wednesday...The flow aloft quickly backs from northwest to west as a
transitory ridge aloft moves overhead. Breezy to windy conditions
prevail based on low and mid level gradients, and expect winds to
again remain below high wind criteria for the most part based on our
local wind models, though a few gusts up to near 60 mph could
briefly occur at Arlington in the afternoon. Somewhat cooler than
today with 700 mb temperatures near 1 Celsius.

Wednesday night/Thursday...Southwest flow aloft develops in advance
of an approaching trough over the west coast. Low and mid level
gradients and local wind models again suggest another windy day
primarily for the wind prone locations of southeast Wyoming and
nearby areas, including Arlington, Bordeaux, Vedauwoo and the I-80
Summit. With 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius, plenty of sunshine
and downslope warming, we expect a decent warming trend with maximum
temperatures in the upper 40s west of I-25, and mid 50s to mid 60s
further east.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

The long term forecast remains on track, starting off warm for the
end of the week before transitioning to cooler and breezier weather.

Slightly above average temperatures will persist through the end of
the work week. Upper-level ridging over the center of the country
will allow 700 mb temperatures of +4C to +6C to reside over the CWA
Friday, leading to the milder temperatures and dry conditions. An
elongated trough will begin to push into the forecast area on
Saturday. This trough will drag a cold front along with it. The cold
front looks to move through mid-day on Saturday. As a result, areas
further east, like the Nebraska panhandle may still see a mild day
with slightly above average temperatures. While areas further west
will be hit with the cooler air earlier, leading to chillier high
temperatures. However, much of this will depend on when exactly the
front will move across the CWA. Widespread breezy conditions will be
possible behind the front. For the most part, this front will be
fairly moisture starved as it crosses the Rockies. Orographic lift
will lead to light snow in the mountains, but the plains look to
stay relatively dry Saturday into Saturday night.

Headed into Sunday, this elongated trough will split into a northern
and southern portion. The northern portion will quickly push
eastward, leaving cold air and windy conditions in its wake. High
temperatures on Sunday will be near to slightly above average with
dry conditions. By Monday, the southern portion of the split trough
will push northward into the CWA. Long range models are still in
disagreement regarding this system. The GFS sends the surface low
further east, resulting in less precipitation with just the Nebraska
panhandle being clipped by this system. The ECMWF has a much more
aggressive system with the surface low tracking just east of the
CWA. This results in a much wetter solution, with the possibility of
widespread snow accumulations. Luckily, there is still time for
models to come into agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1026 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

A cold front will sweep through the area overnight resulting
in rain and snow showers. Potentially the chance for FG in the
NE Panhandle near 12Z, so will take another look at it by the 6Z
TAF issuance. Overall, expect a transition from VFR to MVFR/IFR
fluctuations as the precipitation and low clouds associated
with the cold front sweep through the region.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST Wednesday for WYZ112.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...BW