Ranchettes, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

639
FXUS65 KCYS 022111
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
311 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered, squall-like showers and snow-showers possible
  across much of the forecast area this afternoon.

- Gusty winds are on the decline, but a few breezes remain
  possible, particularly near any shower activity.

- Below average temperatures alongside a chance of light mixed
  precipitation moving into the weekend, with dry conditions and
  a notable warming trend to start next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Areas of showers and snow-showers have been noted as of this
update across the region, including a quick burst of moderate
snowfall moving into the Rawlins area alongside a few rumbles of
thunder just to the west of the region. Surface CAPE values
around 500 J/kg and lapse rates in the 9-10 C/km range are
fueling this activity, so don`t be surprised if we continue to
see activity prosper through this evening including a few
squall-like showers/snow-showers that could produce locally
gusty winds and lowered visibilities. Outside of this, winds
have been breezy across the region, in the 40-50 mph range, but
are beginning to lessen. This should continue through the
evening, with a calm night in store before the next system
impacts us to end the week. In fact, with winds as weak as they
are expected, areas of fog could develop for portions of the
border area between Niobrara/Goshen/Sioux Counties.

For tomorrow and Friday, an embedded upper-level shortwave
within the larger overall trough will quickly swing across the
region, with the aforementioned primary trough forming a closed
low over the Desert Southwest, then traversing eastwards through
the start of the weekend, while at the surface a cold front a
surge of cold Canadian air will overspread from the north on
Friday. This will give us an initial surge of precipitation on
Thursday with a second wave then following with the boundary on
Friday. Snow levels will hover right around 5000 feet through
Friday afternoon, but should quickly descend with the cold air
mass as very chilly mid-spring temperatures are expected behind
the front, with widespread teens for overnight lows likely. As
for the precipitation, most of Wyoming can expect snow to be the
dominant precipitation type outside of the border area into the
Nebraska Panhandle where rain or a mix is expected at first
before transitioning fully over to snow by Friday evening.
Thankfully with the bulk of the system much further to the
south, significant accumulations are unlikely, with overall QPF
totals around 0.1-0.25 inch. And with snow ratios below or just
around 10-1 until Friday evening, snow accumulations should be
limited to just a few inches at best, primarily accumulating on
grassy surfaces or elevated surfaces thanks to warm ground and
road temperatures from the mild weather we`ve had prior to this
event. By overnight into Saturday morning, a few lingering
showers could be possible, but the bulk of the activity will be
on it`s way out to begin the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Ensemble guidance is in solid agreement on the long term as we
see upper level troughing departing the region and ridging
taking over, allowing for a warming trend through the end of the
long term. A shortwave will briefly disrupt this flow Monday
into Tuesday and could bring a few isolated showers alongside
some gusty winds (currently not quite strong enough to warrant
high wind concerns), but after this departs a very dominant
ridge will then overtake the western half of the US and allow
for a notable warming trend well into the extended period beyond
the long term. High temperatures by Sunday are already into the
50`s, and should jump well into the 60`s through the end of the
long term. The 75th percentile of the NBM even shows a high of
71 on Tuesday, but this will be largely dependent on how much
disruption to the ridging the aforementioned shortwave can
produce and help to temper the warming we`re expecting.
Otherwise, the long-term will be quiet as we go from a
seasonably cool start to the forecast period to a seasonably
warm one to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Latest radar loop was showing showers wrapping around the upper
level disturbance in the upper midwest. These showers are
mostly clipping the KCDR TAF site, but some of this could bleed
into KAIA during the afternoon. These two sites will most likely
experience some MVFR conditions this afternoon, but these
ceilings should climb to the VFR category this evening. The
remainder of the TAF sites may see a few snow showers this
afternoon, but ceilings should generally stay in the VFR
category. Cannot rule out some patchy fog in the North Platte
Valley overnight which includes KBFF, but most locations should
have VFR conditions.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...REC