Racine, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

337
FXUS63 KMKX 071533
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1033 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered shower and thunderstorms (30-40% chance) today and
  tonight. A strong storm or two and locally heavy rainfall
  possible.

- Heat and humid conditions return Friday into the weekend with
  mid to upper 90s heat indices.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances expected Saturday
  and Sunday into early next week with a slow moving/stalling
  frontal boundary across the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1033 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Main focus for this afternoon and evening will be thunderstorm
development ahead of the shortwave currently located in far
western Minnesota. This wave should move overhead during peak
heating this afternoon, but with little at the surface to
organize convection, thunderstorm development remains
questionable.

Have reduced PoPs into the 30-40 percent range, though that may
ultimately be too high, as much of the hi-res, short term
guidance has trended downward considerably with coverage this
afternoon.

If storms do develop, there will be a conditional risk for a few
stronger storms. Forecast soundings suggest a fair amount of dry
air between 800 and 700 MB, which would favor a few microbursts
with the strongest cells.

Boxell

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 354 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Today and Tonight:

Warm air advection and moisture will increase today ahead of an
approaching shortwave. This will bring a chance for showers and
storms by the afternoon, with storm chances persisting into at
least the evening. Though the majority of forecast models are
showing scattered showers and storms during this period, there
is less certainty in the finer details of timing and location.
As a result, hourly precip chances were capped at 60%. Overall
though, most locations will likely see some rain over the next
24 hours given decent forcing and precipitable water values
pushing 2 inches by this evening. Storm motion and propagation
vectors suggest storms may not move very quickly, with repeated
rounds of convection possible. This possible storm behavior is
also represented in a some of the short term models as well.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as a result.
Additionally, plenty of instability is expected today along with
marginal deep layer shear, so a stronger storm or two could
develop. Mid level dry air may contribute to a damaging wind
threat, with hail also possible given plenty of instability and
moderate mid- level lapse rates.

The shortwave will still be exiting the area Friday morning, so
storm chances may linger through later tonight into early
Friday, though instability will be less during this period.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 354 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Friday through Wednesday:

The upper level ridge axis passes overhead Friday, leading to a
period of predominantly quiet weather. As cloud cover erodes,
heat and humidity continue to build into Friday, with upper 80s
to low 90s high temps Fri and Sat. Lake MI shoreline areas may
see a tad of relief from the heat, with a south-southeasterly
lake breeze. That said, the due south or south-southwesterly
synoptic wind flow ought to prevent the lake breeze from advancing
much further inland, particularly on Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances gradually return Saturday into Sunday (in a
west to east manner) as the upper-altitude trough gradually dips
into the northern Great Plains and brings the SW to NE oriented
jet stream close enough by to allow for occasional shortwave
troughs / vorticity maxima to cross, triggering rounds of
convection in the steamy airmass. Precip chances remain on the
lower end (15-30%, highest toward central WI) for the daytime
hours of Saturday, likely leaving ample sunshine towards eastern
WI for high temps to enter the low 90s. Shower and storm chances
increase to 30-60% into Saturday night as a southwesterly LLJ
noses into the region. Area-wide 20-40% shower and thunderstorm
chances continue into Sunday (mainly on account of uncertainty
with this pattern), with some lingering cloud cover and precip
chances to hold high temperatures a few degrees cooler.

Daytime highs look to linger in the low to mid 80s into the first
half of next week, with continued occasional chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

Sheppard

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1033 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the next 24 hours,
though scattered thunderstorms may impact the terminals this
afternoon and evening. If storms do develop (this is
uncertain), MVFR ceilings and visibility, as well as gusty
winds, can be expected. Most of this activity should end by late
evening, with the potential for some patchy ground fog
overnight. This will be very localized.

South to southeast winds are expected through the TAF period.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 354 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Southerly winds will pick up a bit today as low pressure around
29.5 inches develops over the northern Great Plains. Could see
some scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of this system
trek across Lake Michigan this afternoon into early Friday.
Southerly winds will increase to around 10-20 kt Friday with a
few gusts approaching 25 kt into Saturday as the system in the
Plains further develops and gradually works its way across the
Plains through the weekend. Additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms are expected Saturday through early next week as
the associated frontal boundary gradually works its way into the
Great Lakes region, with more south to southwest winds
expected.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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