Milwaukee, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

940
FXUS63 KMKX 112013
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
313 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong storms may be possible this evening into tonight
  over southwest Wisconsin. Isolated gusty winds and hail will
  be possible.

- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue through
  Saturday, though there will be some dry periods.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 304 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Tonight through Thursday night:

A slow moving frontal boundary will move south-southeast over
the region tonight between low pressure over Lake Huron and low
pressure over the Central Great Plains. 850mb WAA is expected to
overrun this front ahead of an approaching 500mb shorwave
tonight. Thunderstorm activity that is currently over the NW
corner of IA is expected to track along the frontal boundary
into the Mississippi Valley and southwest WI tonight, following
the 850mb WAA, and higher low to mid level instability. CAMs
have waffled on the intensity of this cluster of storms as it
arrives in southern WI, showing anywhere from an elevated
supercell, to a dying band of storms. However, the overall
consensus tilts toward the initial MCS dying as CAPE becomes
weak and elevated with eastward extent into southern WI. A
strong storm can`t be ruled out over southern WI, given dry low
level sounding profiles, and mid level lapse rates around 7
C/km, but impacts may be limited to gusty winds and pea to
nickel sized hail as the initial cluster crosses the Mississippi
River.

After this initial cluster moves in, additional weak
thunderstorms rain will light up along the front/cold pool
causing rain/rumbles of thunder to linger overnight and through
daybreak tomorrow. The frontal boundary is then expected to
become a stationary front over northern IL Thursday. We may then
spend most of the day dry as the core of the 850mb jet lights up
storms to our west and 700mb fgen kick off rain over northern
WI, while we struggle to find any meaningful triggers for rain
outside of daytime heating.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 304 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Friday through Wednesday:

A weak bit of WAA over our region may bring additional showers
and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning, with
another dry period expected through most of Friday. Friday
night into Saturday, an inverted trough is anticipated to pass,
bringing another chance for rain (20 to 40% chances). These
chances should then largely end Saturday night, as high pressure
moves into the Upper Great Lakes.

After the short reprieve Sunday, active weather returns, with
the GFS and ECMWF showing WAA returning and multiple on and off
chances for thunderstorms for the first half of next week.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the afternoon
and into the early evening. Cloud cover will begin to increase
around sunset as a cluster of thunderstorms work east from the
MN/IA border into southwest WI. Ceilings are generally expected
to decrease in height as the thunderstorms move in, but bases
will remain in VFR, generally at or above 5000 ft. Thunderstorm
activity will continue overnight into Thursday morning.

Winds will generally be light but will come around from
northwesterly, to northerly overnight, then northeasterly by
daybreak on Thursday, and finally easterly through tomorrow.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Low pressure will slowly move east over Lake Huron intothe
overnight hours. As it does this, it`ll drag a slow moving cold
front over the lake, with scattered shower and storm activity
possible along the front during the early morning hours on
Thursday. This front will sag to the south end of Lake Michigan,
and stay put as a stationary front into early Saturday until
another area of low pressure moves over the corn belt.

As the front sags south, winds will come around to northerly
tonight and northeasterly through tomorrow, with northeast gusts
to around 20 knots possible over the middle 3rd of the lake
Thursday night. Light to moderate northeast winds will then
persist into late Saturday.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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