Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

566
FXUS63 KMKX 230254 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
954 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions are expected through Monday. Maximum
  heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees are forecast Monday. Low
  temperatures for June 22 are likely to break records for
  highest minimum temperature at Milwaukee and Madison.

- A moderate swim risk continues this evening for Sheboygan and
  Ozaukee Counties, for lingering elevated waves and dangerous
  currents.

- A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to move
  southeastward across the region Monday afternoon and evening,
  weakening and stalling nearby into the overnight hours. A
  level 2 out of 5 severe risk is present, mainly on account of
  thunderstorm wind gusts.

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms and a level 2 out of 4 risk
  for excessive rainfall will be present Tuesday through
  Thursday, as the surface front stalls overhead.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 954 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Southwest winds may weaken somewhat overnight, with gusts
subsiding at times. Lows should remain in the middle to upper
70s, with heat index values in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees. Gusty southwest winds on Monday are expected again,
with a warm start to temperatures. Daytime heating will help
heat index values rise into the 100 to 105 degree range on
Monday, highest toward far southeast Wisconsin. The heat
headlines will continue through Monday.

The record high minimum temperatures for June 22 are expected
to be broken for Milwaukee and Madison. The record highs for
Milwaukee is 95 degrees for June 23, so that record may be
approached. The record high for Madison is 96 degrees for June
23, which may be tougher to reach.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 310 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Tonight through Monday night:

Overnight low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s expected
tonight, likely breaking records for `highest minimum`
temperatures in several areas. Heat and southwest winds rebuild
after sunrise Monday, reaching max apparent temperatures in the
100 to 105 degree range. Heat headlines remain in effect as is
(expiring 7 PM CDT Monday).

A broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop (SW to NE
oriented) Monday afternoon along a surface front, bisecting the
state of Wisconsin. This line of storms will track southeastward
through the afternoon and evening, beginning to gradually weaken
towards dusk. Given the line-parallel nature of the deep shear
vectors, conglomeration of the storm`s cold pools (and hence
linear storm modes) are likely. Strong instability and DCAPE
values (with very dry air aloft) are expected to further
strengthen the cold pooling, and suggests that damaging wind
gusts will be the main concern. A level 2 out of 5 severe
weather threat is present Monday afternoon and evening.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 310 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Tuesday through Sunday:

High pressure building into northern MN / Lake Superior on Tuesday
will oppose the broad subtropical high pressure (centered over VA /
WV / KY, causing the aforementioned surface frontal boundary to
stall over our general region (with a WSW to ENE orientation to it).
Disagreements on exact positioning of this boundary lead to low
predictability in the temperature forecast.
Northeast winds north of the boundary will advect even cooler air
off the surface of Lake Michigan (capable of reducing daytime high
temps to the mid 70s), meanwhile a daytime high around 90 would be
possible south of the boundary. Our best guess is for the northern
CWA (Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, WI Dells) to reside north of the
boundary and remain cooler Tuesday (mid 70s), with the WI/IL border
residing just south of the boundary and climbing to the upper 80s,
with the rest of the region somewhere in between. Keeping the entire
region under ~65% precip chances throughout Tuesday given the
potential for showers and thunderstorms along the stalled front.
Front-parallel wind flow through the air column would suggest the
potential for training showers / storms (storms that repeatedly
develop and impact the same areas). This, combined with ECMWF ENS /
GEFS PWAT values approaching 2", would suggest a threat for
Excessive Rainfall. We are listed as a WPC ERO threat level 2
out of 4 for Tuesday.

A nearly identical story for Wednesday as the surface front remains
stalled over the region and the threat for training showers /
thunderstorms and excessive rainfall continues.

High pressure systems over southern Canada and the southeastern
CONUS continue to stall the boundary nearby into the second half of
the week, with surface pressures beginning to trough along it,
likely evolving into a more organized surface low pressure
(somewhere between eastern NE / southern MN) Thursday as a 500-300mb
trough interacts with the frontal zone. Said system could then track
east or northeastward past our region late this week.
Either way, this entire period (Wednesday through Thursday) is
looking relatively active (50-80% daily chances for precip), with
continued potential for excessive rainfall.

Precip chances reduce to 40% percent for Friday, given that the
favored model solution is for us to be in the wake of the
departing low pressure. A northern WI / Lake Superior track for
the low would likely leave us in the dry slot for Friday,
whereas a track closer by (southern WI) could leave enough
surface baroclinicity for continued shower / thunderstorm
chances.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 954 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

South southwest winds may weaken a bit overnight, with gusts
subsiding at times. Low level wind shear conditions are expected
until around 12Z Monday, with southwest winds around 45 knots at
2000 feet AGL. Southwest winds will pick up again on Monday,
with gusts to 25 knots at times.

A cold front will approach the area Monday afternoon from the
northwest, moving into northwestern portions of the area in the
evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into the
area by late afternoon and into the evening, affecting the
Madison and Sheboygan terminals by 00Z Tuesday and the rest of
the terminals except Kenosha Monday evening. May see 2 to 5 mile
visibility with any storms, along with gusty winds and hail.
Ceilings should remain above 3500 feet AGL otherwise, with winds
becoming lighter in the evening.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 954 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

A stationary front will remain parked over the Upper Peninsula
of Michigan tonight, before lifting north as a warm front over
Lake Superior. Low pressure around 29.3 inches will track north
from the Central Plains to the Minnesota/Canada border. Breezy
south to southwest winds will continue into Monday, ahead of an
approaching cold front.

The cold front is expected to move over the lake Monday night
into Tuesday, easing the winds and stalling over the southern
third of the lake through much of this week. As a result, winds
will be modest, with generally north winds over the northern two
thirds of the lake and southerly winds over the southern third.
However, there should be multiple rounds of thunderstorms along
the front late Monday afternoon through Thursday night.

Sheppard/Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
     WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-
     WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070 until 7 PM Monday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 1 AM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...8 AM
     Monday to 9 PM Monday.

&&

$$

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