Kenosha, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

299
FXUS63 KMKX 021508
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1008 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible early this
  morning capable of producing small hail. Additional
  thunderstorm potential for this afternoon with a conditional
  severe risk for damaging winds and hail if enough instability
  is able to form.

- The next disturbance approaches Friday night through Sunday,
  bringing additional precipitation to southern Wisconsin.
  Mostly rain appears favored at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1010 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Rain has pushed out much faster than expected this morning with
erosion of precip from the backend in addition to precip pushing
out faster. Storms have also largely pushed out and over the
next couple hours expect precip to clear the CWA. Short term
models suggest some isolated to scattered showers and maybe a
few storms later this afternoon.

There is some increasing concern with showers pushing out
earlier than expected that it could lead to enough of a
recovery in the environment that could lead to some severe
concerns later this afternoon. The potential for severe storms
largely rests on the good low level lapse rates around 7 C/km
leading to decent 0-3km CAPE assuming we see decent recovery.
Shear will be incredibly strong, potentially too strong, as
effective bulk shear could be in the neighborhood of 100 kts
with 0-3km shear around 50 kts. With any storms this could be a
bad thing for sustained development as they could be just ripped
apart. However, any sustained updrafts in this type of
environment would likely lead to strong to severe storms with
all hazards in play. This risk is entirely conditional on proper
recovery and the development of additional storms with
sustenance. We will certainly be watching this potential
through this morning as we get a better idea of what our
recovery might look like.

Kuroski

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 412 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Today and tonight:

Showers will continue to move through southern Wisconsin this
morning in response to strong warm air and moisture advection
ahead of an approaching low. Could be some isolated thunder
prior to daybreak, with the better instability nudging in from
the south around or shortly after daybreak, bringing a higher
chance for storms. Some of these morning storms may produce
small hail. This early activity should persist into mid-morning,
with widespread rain totals of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Attention then turns to the potential for additional storms this
afternoon. The latest models continue to suggest the warm
sector of the approaching low will sneak into southern Wisconsin
for a couple/few hours this afternoon into early evening. The
question remains if there will be much of an opportunity to
build some instability across the forecast area before the
better moisture and forcing shift eastward. Given how dynamic
this low is, with a ton of wind aloft, the potential for a few
severe storms will exist this afternoon into early evening given
enough instability. Latest HREF shows a few updraft helicity
tracks clipping at least the southeast forecast area, which
goes in line with model reflectivity via a couple of the latest
CAMs. If afternoon storms do develop, severe wind, hail, and a
tornado or two will be possible. Will continue to monitor short
term model trends and upstream radar as we approach this window
of opportunity for severe storms later today.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 412 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Thursday Through Tuesday:

Synopsis: High pressure will build into the Northern Plains on
Thursday, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures and much quieter
conditions. An upper disturbance will progress from the Southern
Plains into the Ohio River Valley Friday evening through Sunday,
bringing the next chances for precipitation to southern Wisconsin.
Despite the passage of both the disturbance & its attendant surface
low to the southeast of the area, a relatively mild antecedent air
mass should keep most/if not all precipitation liquid during this
time frame. A second disturbance will drive south into the western
Great Lakes from Canada late Sunday into Monday, bringing additional
chances for more isolated precipitation to eastern parts of the
area. High pressure will move into the upper Mississippi Valley on
Tuesday, bringing dry weather and seasonable temperatures to
southern Wisconsin.

Friday Night Through Sunday: Will be monitoring the next disturbance
& meaningful precip chances across the area. Relatively mild
temperatures should support mostly rain during this next round of
precip, though a few snowflakes could mix in as colder air moves
into southern Wisconsin Saturday night. Don`t anticipate major
impacts from any rain/snow mix at this time, but will continue to
watch trends in the coming forecasts.

Sunday Night Into Monday: A secondary disturbance could bring some
slight (~10-20%) chances for precip to eastern parts of the area.
Overnight timing would support some snow in this activity, with
major impacts again not anticipated at this time.

Quigley

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1010 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Showers/storms have pushed out much quicker than expected this
morning and we should expect over the next couple hours to see
showers end across southern WI. While low CIGS are likely to
remain a factor into the afternoon for much of the area it is
possible we could see some partial clearing across southern WI
into this afternoon. This will in turn, bring increased risk for
a few isolated to scattered showers/storms with some potential
to become strong, though this is a very conditional risk. Winds
will remain breezy today but will gradually shift more southwest
by this afternoon. While breezy the strong shear aloft will lead
to continued LLWS concerns with 50 kts at 2 kft also changing
from southeast to southwest into this afternoon. VFR conditions
will return for much of southern WI by the evening but across
central WI lower CIGS could stick around through Thursday
morning at least possibly lingering longer. Winds will finally
become lighter by Thursday afternoon.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 412 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Southeast winds will continue to strengthen across the open
waters tonight as low pressure develops in the central Great
Plains. Gusts will continue to increase through the predawn
hours as the low progresses into the Missouri River Valley.
Widespread southeasterly gales will overspread Lake Michigan
from south to north by sunrise this morning. A Gale Warning
remains in effect into early evening across the open waters and
through mid-afternoon across the nearshore waters. A Small Craft
Advisory will be needed into Thursday after the Gale Warning
expires across the nearshore waters.

The surface low will progress toward Lake Superior this evening,
moving into Ontario by early Thursday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the low through this evening.
Some storms could be strong to severe this afternoon,
particularly across the southern half of Lake Michigan. Winds
will turn southwesterly & gradually decrease in the wake of the
departing surface low tonight.

High pressure will build into the northern Great Plains
Thursday afternoon, allowing winds to turn more westerly across
the open waters. A few gusts to gale force are possible in the
north early Thursday. Winds will become light & variable
Thursday night as the high crosses Lake Michigan. Winds will
shift out of the northeast on Friday as low pressure forms in
the southern Great Plains. Winds will increase during the day on
Saturday as the low moves into the Ohio River Valley. Gales
aren`t forecast at this time, though trends will be monitored.
Periods of rain will accompany the approaching low Friday
afternoon through Saturday, with a few thunderstorms possible
over far southern Lake Michigan.

Quigley/DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 PM Wednesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 until 9 PM
     Wednesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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