Appleton, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

885
FXUS63 KGRB 042044
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
344 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke reaching the surface will lead to poor air
  quality into Thursday. An Air Quality Advisory is in effect
  for much of the area until Noon Thursday.

- Added a chance of sprinkles across the far north into early
  this evening, and a small chance of showers across the north
  Thursday afternoon.

- A few showers and thunderstorms could pop up Friday and
  Saturday, with a greater opportunity for widespread rain and
  thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Short Term...Tonight and Thursday

What a difference a day makes. Relative humidity readings near
100% yesterday afternoon were replaced by humidity readings
around 30%. Fair weather cumulus developed during the afternoon
as temperatures warmed into the 70s.

For the rest of the afternoon into early this evening, an
upper level disturbance will move across far northern Wisconsin.
Added a few sprinkles with this feature as KDLH radar was showing
some high based showers across northern Minnesota. Later tonight,
mostly clear skies and light winds should allow for some patchy
ground fog to develop. There is some concern for locally dense
fog along the Lake Michigan shoreline. Areas of smoke are
still possible over eastern WI where an Air Quality Advisory
remains in effect until noon on Thursday. Lows should drop into
the 40s to lower 50s.

On Thursday, fair weather cumulus is expected to develop
during the late morning and afternoon. A weak boundary is
anticipated to drop into northern Wisconsin where this
will be the focusing mechanism for isolated showers development.
Did add a small chance of showers with this feature. Highs
should climb into the middle 70s to lower 80s.

Long Term...Thursday Night Through Wednesday

Given the forecast area will be under a mid-level northwest flow,
models indicate a few less impressive opportunities on Friday and
Saturday to see chances for showers and storms with subtle
shortwaves. For Friday, the highest PoPs (45-60%) will be in north-
central WI, where the best forcing will be located. Elsewhere could
still see some scattered showers throughout Friday as well, aided by
daytime heating. Cannot rule out the potential for some embedded non-
severe thunderstorms during the afternoon as a couple hundred J/kg
of instability resides over the area. Saturday looks less impressive
given a lack in upper-level support with the main shortwave energy
passing to the south of the forecast area. However, models indicate
a few daytime showers popping up in the afternoon.

The next best chance for widespread precipitation arrives Sunday
with a cold frontal passage. The timing of the frontal passage will
play a role in if any thunderstorms become strong or severe, but the
latest guidance suggests the frontal passage occurring sometime
midday, lowering the potential for strong/severe storms. It is
likely this will still change over the next few days as the finer
details come into better focus. Following the frontal passage, a
closed low will drive south over the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday
night into Monday and keep additional chances for scattered showers
over the forecast area through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Fair weather high based cumulus clouds from six to eight thousand
feet are expected this afternoon and should dissipate around
sunset. Wind forecast will be on the light side from 5 to 10 knots
and will likely be variable at times. Light and variable winds
tonight, combined with mostly clear skies could allow for some
patchy fog to develop. Confidence is low to medium that fog will
develop as numerical guidance is not showing it at this time.
Did include a tempo group for light fog due to the expected
period of light winds and mostly clear skies. The highest chances
to see fog would be from 06-10z Thursday. Fair weather cumulus
clouds will again develop Thursday afternoon. There could be a few
isolated showers across the far north, with the best chance
across Vilas County.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg/Kruk
AVIATION.......Eckberg