South Charleston, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

648
FXUS61 KRLX 222347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
647 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain moves in tonight into Tuesday with some brief
freezing rain in the NE mountains and Greenbrier Valley. Mild
with additional rain chances Christmas through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 PM Monday...

Key Points:

 * No major changes with this update.

 * Winter Weather Advisory still remains in effect across the
   northeastern mountains from midnight tonight thru 7 AM
   Tuesday morning for light ice accumulations.

Refreshed winter weather headlines. Ice amounts came up
slightly across the higher ridges and the leeward side of the
higher terrain of Pocahontas County. Amounts are still generally
around a light glaze to a few hundredths of an inch for most,
including the Greenbrier Valley, but a few locations above
3,500 feet may see ice accretions between 0.05" and 0.10".
Initial onset is expected between 11 PM and 1 AM tonight.
This event will be brief as temperatures are expected to rise
starting around 4 AM Tuesday. A change over to all rain is
expected by 6 AM or 7 AM Tuesday.

As of 200 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Light rain moves in overnight.
* Brief period of freezing rain likely overnight in the NE mountains
  and Greenbrier Valley as precipitation begins.

A shortwave passes by to our north through tomorrow. In response, a
low level jet engages overnight which transports moisture
northeastward across our area. Clouds will lower and thicken this
evening and light rain will overspread the region overnight as a
result.

Temperatures will bottom out in the evening and then rise for most
locations as warm advection kicks in. However, there will be some
pockets of sub freezing temperatures as the rain moves into our
northeast mountains and the Greenbrier Valley around midnight. The
probability of a light glaze exceeds 80% according to the HREF in
parts of Pocahontas County and on Cheat Mountain in SE Randolph so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory from midnight to 7 am for this
area for a light glaze of ice.

Otherwise, rainfall amounts will be light with this event and in
fact, it may end up being more drizzly in nature during the day
Tuesday under a low overcast. Temperatures will warm nicely despite
the clouds with most locations warming into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Key Point:
* Santa brings us a warm and wet Christmas this year.

After what should be a relative mild and dry day on Wednesday,
the fast west-northwest flow aloft brings another shortwave
through to our north on Christmas Day. This will provide another
shot of rain Wednesday night into Christmas Day. In fact, we
could see enough instability for a rumble of thunder or two as
locations along and south of I-64 warm above 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Key Point:
* Remaining mild and active late week into the weekend.

The flow aloft remains largely zonal through Saturday before
buckling as a trough digs back into the eastern U.S. Sunday
into early next week. This should keep us mild and unsettled
Friday through most of the weekend before at least some
semblance of winter returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 PM Monday...

Light winds and VFR flight conditions will continue for the next
few hours this evening. MVFR cigs (IFR across the NE`rn mtns)
move in from west to east around ~05-06z tonight with increasing
rain chances across the area.

There will be a brief window of freezing rain/drizzle across
the NE`rn mtns between ~05z and ~10z where light ice accretion
is possible. A change over to all rain is expected by ~12z as
temperatures warm. SW`rly winds will also gradually become
breezy at most sites overnight with gusts between 10 and 20
knots being common. LLWS was also added where surface winds were
light enough to warrant the mention of the 35 to 45 knot
SW`rly crossover between 1k and 2k feet AGL.

MVFR/IFR cigs will persist through the day Tuesday, even as
rain chances wane by the afternoon. Winds will be light to
breezy and SW`rly Tuesday. Gusts between 10 and 20 knots will be
common for most locations. Locally higher gusts possible across
the higher ridges of the northeastern mountains.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of arrival of precipitation, winds,
and lower ceilings may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in rain/fog/low ceilings Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and then again Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ523-524-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...LTC