Cheat Lake, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

101
FXUS61 KPBZ 051733
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
133 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Frost Advisory was issued for southern counties.  Otherwise,
no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much cooler temperatures in the wake of a cold front, with
scattered rain and snow showers possible Monday and Monday
night, and possible frost/freeze conditions Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday
morning

3) Dry and warmer mid to late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cold advection in the wake of a cold front is keeping the
diurnal temperature range to a minimum today, and have opted to
to blend in direct model output into the blend to better reflect
hourly temperatures, which are 30-35 degrees cooler than
observed Saturday. Overnight, winds may drop enough for frost
formation, so have issued a Frost Advisory for counties that
have already started the growing season.

A shortwave is then expected to drop SE across the Great Lakes
and Upper Ohio Valley region Monday into Monday night. Daytime
boundary layer temperatures should be warm enough for mainly
rain, though some snow could mix in early Monday morning with
850 mb temperatures -3 to -5 deg C. Scattered rain showers
should change to snow showers Monday night, mainly north of PIT
and in the ridges, though no significant accumulation is
expected with moisture limited in the dendritic growth zone.

Overnight lows are expected to be near/below freezing again both
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, and Freeze Warnings and/or Frost
Advisories will likely be needed.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Model ensembles indicate the flow aloft should become more
zonal from mid to late week, with rising 500 mb heights. This
should result in dry weather and a warming trend from mid to
late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Light rain and MVFR/IFR ceilings will exit by 15z this morning
in conjunction with an exiting mid-level shortwave plus
intruding drier air.

A mix of low VFR to high MVFR stratocu within the post-frontal
WNW cold advection regime is favored through the early afternoon
before lift/subsidence either erode and raise most cig heights
to VFR. The exception is occasional light rain
showers/sprinkles that could develop near FKL/DUJ due to
additional mid-level shortwave movement lifting and squeezing
out the rest of the area`s moisture. Otherwise, expect west to
northwest winds gusting between 20 to 30kts through the evening
before backing and weakening as the surface pressure gradient
wanes overnight.

Outlook...
A reinforcing shot of cold air with another shortwave passage
Monday will create scattered rain/snow showers that likely
reintroduces mainly MVFR ceilings for the late morning/early
afternoon period.

Lingering periods of restrictions within cooler NW flow into
Tuesday morning dissipates by Tuesday afternoon with increasing
subsidence and building surface high pressure. This VFR period
is likely to persist into the late week/early weekend timeframe
when the pattern becomes more active again.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for OHZ057-058-
     068-069.
WV...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for WVZ012-021-
     509>512.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WM/88
AVIATION...Frazier