Arlington, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

965
FXUS61 KLWX 220816
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
316 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong Canadian high pressure builds in through Monday, with dry and
very cold conditions. Precipitation chances increase as another
front approaches Tuesday morning. Temperatures moderate through the
week, with additional precipitation chances by late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A large Canadian High moves across the Northeast U.S. through
Monday, bringing dry and very cold conditions to the region.

Some lingering streamer clouds into the area early this morning
could be producing some flurries, but given how dry the surface dew
points are they are likely not reaching the ground. These clouds
should break up by early afternoon, with ample sunshine expected
today. Very cold through the day as highs reach the 20s to lower
30s, with a lingering north wind gusting to around 15 mph at times.
As the high settles closer to the area tonight, clear skies and
light to calm winds allow temperatures to plummet to the lower
teens. Single digit lows in the Alleghenies, Catoctins, and some
along the MD/PA border. Still cold Monday afternoon as highs only
reach the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A clipper system moves across the Great Lakes into NY/southern New
England Monday night into Tuesday. This drags a weak cold front
across the OH Valley, that then flattens/stalls somewhere near our
area as flow aloft becomes primarily zonal. The decaying front could
bring some wintry precipitation to parts of the Alleghenies, and
areas along/north of I-70 Tuesday morning. Model soundings indicate
the potential is there for freezing rain/sleet to occur, along with
snow, though confidence is low at this time. Some light freezing
rain could occur as far south as US-50. Any accumulation would be
minimal, but could still cause issues during the Tuesday morning
commute. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

Precip quickly comes to an end by Tuesday afternoon, with some rain
possible early in the afternoon. Highs reach the 40s across the area,
except the Alleghenies where mountain snow showers continue through
Tuesday evening before dissipating.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will primarily be dry Wednesday and Thursday as surface
high pressure builds to the north of the area. There is a slight
chance of light rain showers Wednesday afternoon with a low pressure
system nearby, though conditions dry out areawide under high
pressure for Thursday. Winds are expected to be light and variable
both days with high temperatures in the 30s to 40s. Overnight low
temperatures will dip into the upper 20s to 30s.

A slight chance to chance of rain showers return for Friday and
Saturday as a low pressure system and associated frontal boundaries
approach from the Mississippi River Valley. There is a good bit of
model discrepancy regarding precipitation chances for the end of the
week. The GFS and Canadian delay the precipitation to Sunday with
the ECMWF having widespread precipitation Saturday morning.
Temperatures continue warming Friday and Saturday with high
temperatures in the 40s for most both days.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Monday night. A cold front moves
into the area early Tuesday morning, bringing the chance for wintry
precipitation to all terminals, except for CHO. Confidence is
currently low, but a mix of snow, sleet, or freezing rain is
possible for a few hours, with higher chances closer to the MD/PA
border. Precip comes to an end Tuesday afternoon.

Flight conditions will primarily be VFR both Wednesday and Thursday
as surface high pressure builds to our north. Brief periods of sub-
VFR conditions are possible on Wednesday as a cold front departs to
the south and cloud cover lingers. Light and variable winds are
expected both days.

&&

.MARINE...
North winds gusting around 20 knots over most of the waters continue
through this afternoon. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for
all the waters through late morning, then for the middle Chesapeake
Bay and Lower Tidal Potomac through mid afternoon.

Winds drop below SCA levels by this evening, and remain below SCA
levels through Tuesday night. Some weak southerly channeling is
possible Monday night, but mostly looks to be gusts to around 15kt.

Winds are expected to stay below SCA criteria Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ530>532-536-538>540-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...KRR/AVS
MARINE...KRR/AVS