South Burlington, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

240
FXUS61 KBTV 242316
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
716 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 214 PM EDT Friday...

No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 214 PM EDT Friday...

1. Dry and seasonably warm weather will continue through most
of the weekend as high pressure remains over the region. Rain
chances return late Sunday into early next week.

2. Unsettled weather is expected across the region for much of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 214 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface high pressure has settled in over the region,
with the center currently over southern New England. A few diurnally
driven fair weather cumulus clouds have developed over the higher
terrain, but otherwise the rest of today will remain clear and
pleasant. A light breeze in the Champlain Valley near Lake Champlain
will continue into the afternoon with light channeled flow, but
otherwise light under 10 MPH winds are expected to continue. Our
incoming airmass this weekend will be quite dry with relative
humidities falling to near 25-30% with dewpoints into the upper 40s
to near 50 tomorrow. Given how low dewpoints will be with clear
overnight skies, good radiational cooling is expected tonight and
tomorrow night with temperatures cooling to the low 50s to mid 50s
(warmer locations near the Champlain Valley due to the warmer lake
temperatures). A few favored locations in the Adirondacks and
eastern Vermont could cool into the mid to upper 40s tonight and
Friday night. Temperatures will gradually warm into the upper 80s by
Sunday. Thankfully, humidity will remain low with an unfavorable
moisture advection pattern.

A pattern change will begin by the end of the weekend with the
approach of a weak cold front as our pattern turns more troughy into
next week. A cyclonic gyre over northern Quebec will usher several
rounds of shortwaves beginning late Sunday into early next week.
Initial shortwaves will encounter dry surface air which will likely
stifle most precipitation mid to late Sunday, however, a sprinkle to
a couple hundreths of an inch of rain cannot be ruled out across the
northwestern Adirondacks. Precipitation chances Sunday afternoon are
only 20-30%. Better chances for rain will occur on Monday with the
passage of another shortwave in northern New York. Diurnally driven
terrain scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will
be possible during the day, primarily in the northern New York. It
currently does not look like a washout by any means, but most areas
will likely see showers throughout the day across the Adirondacks.
Best precipitation chances look to be around 50-70% from 2-8 PM
Monday, though again it does not look to rain the entire time.
Showers will wane with the loss of diurnal heating, but a few
showers could drift east into Vermont with a light evening shower or
two. Temperatures into early next week will be relatively seasonable
in the terrain, and seasonably warm in the valleys with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The omega blocking pattern noted yesterday appears a bit
weaker on deterministic guidance as models diverge on how quickly,
if at all, the upper level closes off across the New England
coastline. The GFS and ECMWF are struggling to resolve shortwave
energy from a shortwave that has yet to develop which means standard
RAOBS have yet to identify the feature. As we get into the second
half of this upcoming weekend, we should be able to sample this
energy to some extent which will help deterministic guidance lock
into a solution on how the longwave pattern will develop for early
next week. The general consensus is that the upper flow closes off
late Tuesday but whether the surface reflection develops across New
England or the Mid-Atlantic is still very much in question. This
will play a large roll in the precipitation evolution Tuesday and
Wednesday with the closer the surface low, the more intense rainfall
rates and higher precipitation totals will be. For now, the threat
for flooding continue to look marginal at best as we haven`t had
much rainfall over the past 10 days for most locations along with
rainfall rates not prone to flooding. Nevertheless, Tuesday and
Wednesday will be watched closely in the coming days. Thereafter,
diurnal showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled
out for Thursday and Friday but largely dry conditions are expected
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR condition are once again expected through
the TAF period. There could be a brief period of IFR to LIFR fog at
KSLK and KMPV between 8Z and 11Z but any fog that develops would
dissipate quickly following sunrise. Calm windsovernight with
light southerly winds expected Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Clay/Danzig
AVIATION...SLW