Milton, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

408
FXUS61 KBTV 131134
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
734 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered across northern Ontario will bring
seasonably cool and dry conditions to the North Country today,
along with light winds. A developing frontal zone across the
Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York
will bring increasing clouds to the North Country tonight, along
with light rain showers during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.
Most of this precipitation is expected to get suppressed to the
south and east of the region with mainly dry conditions for the
balance of Saturday and the remainder of the weekend. In the
long-term portion of the forecast, a trend toward increasing
heat and humidity is expected starting Tuesday, along with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms in the humid
air mass Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 221 AM EDT Friday...Tranquil conditions across the North
Country early this morning with very dry conditions in place
(2-m dewpoints in the 40s). High pressure across northern
Ontario will remain our controlling weather feature today with
dry low-level flow from the north. High temperatures are only
expected in the 65-70F range this afternoon, except some lower
70s possible in the valleys of Rutland and Windsor counties in
south-central Vermont. Will see filtered sunshine as mid-upper
level cloudiness increases through the day with a developing E-W
frontal zone across srn NY and Pennsylvania.

It appears sufficient frontogenesis develops within the frontal
zone for developing bands of rain showers overnight tonight.
These rain showers are expected to develop across the
Adirondacks eastward across central/s-central VT, mainly after
midnight. It also appears that the rain will be falling out of a
mid-cloud/altostratus deck into relatively dry sub-cloud
conditions. As such, will see periods of virga and rainfall
generally on the light side. Indicated 0.10-0.20" during the
06-12Z period on Saturday, with max rainfall across Essex County
NY ewd across central VT where best frontogenesis is expected to
become established.

Overall NWP trend continues to be that the frontal zone gets
shunted to the south and east during the daylight hours on
Saturday. Best chance for precipitation on Saturday will be
across s-central VT during the morning hours, with a gradual
drying and clearing trend from NW-SE across northern NY and VT.
Have continued trend from previous shift of lowering PoPs for
Saturday, generally looking at 20-30 percent for the morning
hours across s-central VT, and <10% areawide by afternoon.
Temperatures Saturday afternoon will range from the lower 70s
across the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys - with more
prolonged sunshine - to the mid-upper 60s elsewhere with longer
intervals of potential cloudy conditions.

Should see generally quiet conditions Saturday night with lows
in the mid-upper 40s, except lower 50s for the Champlain and St.
Lawrence valley areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 221 AM EDT Friday...Generally fair/pleasant conditions are
expected on Sunday as sfc high pressure drifts ewd into the
Gulf of Maine. Should see 10-meter winds becoming light south
5-10 mph by afternoon with developing return flow on wrn
periphery of anticyclone. Dewpoints will increase into the mid
50s by afternoon, and can`t rule out an isolated shower during
the afternoon with daytime heating and shallow instability.
Limited PoPs to 20-30%...highest across the mtns. Afternoon
highs should reach the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 221 AM EDT Friday...A more persistent S-SW low-mid level
flow regime develops during the extended forecast period. This
will gradually allow temperatures to warm into the mid-upper 70s
on Monday and well into the 80s for the mid-week, Tue-Thu
period. Along with this, PBL dewpoints will be on the increase
with more humid conditions...especially by Wednesday and
Thursday. Increasing moisture and instability will bring an
increased threat for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday. An
approaching frontal system from the Great Lakes on Thursday per
00Z ECMWF/GFS/Canadian suggests a greater potential for strong
to severe thunderstorms by Thursday, and we`ll be monitoring
this potential in the coming days. Highest PoPs in the extended
portion of the forecast are on Thursday...generally 60-75%
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Most sites are seeing VFR conditions
with scattered low-level clouds at BTV/EFK/SLK to 2000-3000 ft.
These clouds are more widespread in coverage at SLK/EFK which
has briefly brought ceilings down to MVFR. Model guidance is
poor depicting these low-level clouds, however, given upstream
trends, and satellite depictions, these MVFR ceilings should
lift in an hour or two back to VFR. Elsewhere ceilings are
5000-10000 ft agl cirrus and cumulus clouds which should be
prevailing through the taf period. Winds will trend light 5-10
knots, generally northerly, through the day. By 00Z, winds will
become light and variable with continued VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Danzig