West Jordan, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

980
FXUS65 KSLC 142029
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
229 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A brief surge of moisture will result in elevated
precipitation chances through Saturday, with activity becoming
more isolated in nature Sunday into early next week. Convection
will tend to be higher based in nature today, becoming wetter
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...High pressure is centered
over Colorado and New Mexico this afternoon with Utah and
southwest Wyoming under southwest flow on the back side of it.
This is drawing moisture into the area, with satellite derive PWs
in the 0.6 to 0.8 inch range. Predictably, this has allowed for
the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain, with some drift into the valleys. Current focus is
over central and southern Utah but high resolution guidance
indicates the focus of coverage shifting to northern Utah for the
late afternoon/early evening. In this area, there is a bit more
cape and around 25kts of shear, which could allow for some better
organized cells. Given the dry lower levels, these storms will
produce little in the way of rainfall. Conditions are favorable
for gusty microburst winds through the early evening and have
already seen some gusts in excess of 40 mph with some cells.

Moisture will continue to increase tomorrow, particularly over
southeast Utah where guidance is showing PWs in excess of 1.0
inch. With this push, will see moisture increasingly moving into
the lower levels, increasing the potential for wetting rains as
well as the threat of flash flooding, particularly for southern
Utah. Have kept the flash flood potential in the possible range
for now but there are some indications from high res guidance that
the threat level could potentially be higher over southeast Utah.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday), Issued 349 AM MDT...On
Saturday, troughing along the northwestern U.S. will favor just a
little more moisture return across UT and southwest WY for one
more day. PWATs are expected to generally remain around 0.6-0.8"
of water, though some locally higher amounts appear possible,
particularly across southern UT. However, ascent appears to weaken
somewhat throughout the day resulting in slightly lower PoPs
compared to Friday. However, chances appear more widespread as
more widespread moisture makes it further north with the highest
PoPs generally found across eastern UT into SW WY and along higher
terrain.

Unfortunately, all good things have to come to an end as the
ensembles are in agreement regarding ridging building over the
four corners throughout the remainder of the long term. This will
usher in the return of hot and dry conditions beginning to develop
Sunday, becoming hotter as the week continues. Thankfully, not
all hope is lost, as long range guidance does indicate the
possibility of some monsoonal moisture sneaking its way into the
forecast area near the end of the week. Ensemble agreement on this
solution leaves much to be desired at this time, though this
pattern would be favorable for this sort of setup assuming the
ridge begins to decay later on. This wouldn`t be the first time
that global models have hinted at this sort of setup this year and
not delivered, though this forecaster would like to remain
optimistic that this won`t be a total non-soon year after all.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
last through roughly 01z across the Salt Lake Valley. Any showers
will be capable of producing very gusty and erratic outflow winds
potentially in excess of 50kts, with little to no precipitation.
Thus, prevailing wind direction is very low confidence this
afternoon. Brief VIS reductions are possible in blowing dust near
stronger showers. Although conditions will be quieter overnight, may
see some light, nocturnal showers around 04-08z that may mess with
wind direction a bit, though winds won`t be as strong as this
afternoon.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are likely to impact most sites this afternoon and
early evening, with the main threats being gusty outflow winds in
excess of 50kts, brief VIS reductions due to blowing dust, and some
lightning. Most storms will diminish by 03z, however some locations
(especially KPVU, KPUC, KBCE, KHVE) may see nocturnal showers
overnight which may cause squirrelly winds at times...albeit lighter
than this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Southwesterly flow is drawing moisture into Utah
from the south today allowing for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain with some valley
drift. Given that this moisture is confined to the mid and upper
levels, little if any rainfall is hitting the ground. Thus, the
main threat with storms that develop will be dry lightning and
gusty outflow winds. Because of this, seeing an increasing threat
of new fire starts and spread of existing fires, so the Red Flag
Warning remains in effect through the evening. Moisture will
continue to increase through the first part of the weekend, with
this moisture reaching the lower levels. Because of this, the
potential for wetting rain will steadily increase. Away from
storms, winds will be generally light with temperatures near
normal for this time of year.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ478>484-488-
     489-493-494-496-498.

WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ277.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM...Worster
AVIATION...Cunningham

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity