Saratoga Springs, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

295
FXUS65 KSLC 290812
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
211 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1002 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026...


- Localized frost to brief freezing conditions will be possible
  Monday morning in portions of northern Utah valleys and high
  mountain valleys like the Wasatch Back.

- Abnormally cool temperatures will gradually warm through
  midweek, returning back to near normal by Thursday.

- Little in the way of appreciable precipitation is expected over
  the next week. Southwesterly winds are favored to increase by
  midweek, which in combination with widespread dryness and
  warming temperatures will result in areas of Critical Fire
  Weather conditions likely returning Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1002 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026...
Evening analysis shows a broad longwave trough placed
across the majority of the W CONUS. Mid level water vapor loop
shows a cutoff shortwave lobe of this broader trough digging
southward deeper through the Great Basin. While available moisture
remains limited, a corridor of near normal PWAT values is
allowing for continued shower activity near this feature, as well
as near the convergence zone of a cold front associated with the
broader scale trough. While cold air associated with the trough is
more noticeable in the form of temperatures running 10-25 degrees
below normal, it is also helping steepen lapse rates a bit to
allow for an isolated thunderstorm or two, though suspect with the
cessation of daytime heating any lightning will become more
sparse with the continued shower activity.

Sunday night into Monday will see the core of the broader
longwave trough very slowly start to shift eastward while embedded
shortwave impulses continue to dig southward through the Great
Basin and W CONUS near the Pacific coast. Locally, anticipate
enough moisture and forcing to maintain some isolated shower
chances, especially across northern Utah. Interestingly, these
chances look to be further aided in areas generally east of the
Great Salt Lake as the abnormally cold airmass overriding the warm
lake will have potential (~30% per GFS derived LE guidance) of
yielding some lake enhanced shower activity early Monday morning.
It does appear tonight into Monday morning will likely be the
coldest night for most locations. There is uncertainty though on
how much the precipitation potential and associated cloud cover
can help limit radiational cooling though. While somewhat
borderline, would not be surprised to see some areas in northern
valleys (such as the Cache) or mountain valleys (like the Wasatch
Back) briefly fall to freezing, or see some frost development.
Particularly if winds can calm and clouds clear. Given how limited
the threat area is, opted to not issue any headlines, but those
with sensitive vegetation in these areas may want to consider
bringing plants inside or covering them as possible/needed.

Monday on into midweek will see the broader longwave trough more
or less maintained across the W CONUS while individual shortwave
impulses continue to ripple through its base. With moisture
becoming further limited, shower chances will be quite low, with
the highest chances arising Tuesday afternoon in the form of
isolated shower chances largely over the high terrain,
particularly the high Uintas. Otherwise, the airmass will more or
less moderate day to day, allowing temperatures to gradually warm
in turn. With the exception of some elevated to locally critical
fire weather conditions where a combination of winds and low
humidity can combine (best chances across southern to eastern
Utah), impactful weather chances will remain fairly low.

Model consensus has not changed significantly for Thursday into
the weekend. The favored pattern evolution is that of a continued
W CONUS trough enhancing southwesterly flow, continuing the warmup
and maintaining dry conditions, and bringing about potential for
more areas of critical fire weather conditions. That said, there
still remains fairly considerable uncertainty on specifics
including the depth of the trough driving the mild southwesterly
flow, and just if/how quick it begins to shift eastward. Canadian
Ensemble members seem most bullish on a slower progressing deeper
W CONUS trough, where the ECM Ens/GEFS are somewhere in the middle
with a bit more eastern progression. Biggest impact would be in
terms of fire weather, with the deeper/slower trough solution
allowing potential for a longer period of southwesterly winds into
the weekend. In any case, very little ensemble membership offers
anything in the way of appreciable precipitation chances, so the
dry conditions are likely to persist at a minimum.


&&

.AVIATION, Issued 1002 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026...


KSLC...VFR conditions prevail at the terminal through the forecast
period. A period of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm is
expected between 6-12z, but impacts will be minimal outside of
terrain obscuration. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with
gradually clearing skies late Monday morning. Northwesterly winds
transition to southeasterly after ~10z, shifting back northwest
around 19z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions prevail for all
regional terminals. Generally light, terrain driven winds prevail
overnight across the airspace through Monday, except portions of
eastern Utah and southwest Wyoming where afternoon gusts to 25 kts
are expected. Some isolated showers are possible along the Wasatch
Front between 6-12z; otherwise, dry conditions prevail with
gradually decreasing cloud cover through late Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...More stable conditions will build into the region
behind a disturbance shifting into the central Rockies today.
Southwest flow will gradually develop across Utah through Tuesday
as yet another disturbance approaches the area, with critical fire
weather conditions developing across the San Rafael Swell and
Henry Mountains Tuesday afternoon and evening, and locally
critical fire weather conditions across the western Uinta Basin
and Grand Staircase.  Overnight recovery will become increasingly
poor after Monday night.

Winds will decrease Wednesday behind this disturbance but will
begin to increase once again Thursday into Friday, with more
widespread critical fire weather conditions expected.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for UTZ489-494.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Warthen
AVIATION...Whitlam
FIRE WEATHER...Kruse

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity