Ogden, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

029
FXUS65 KSLC 112058
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
258 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A warming trend will continue today under a dry
northerly flow. High pressure will build overhead heading into
midweek maintaining the warming trend. Moisture will slowly
spread into the region beginning late Wednesday, bringing a chance
of thunderstorms through the latter portion of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Wednesday)...Northerly winds will
continue to decrease into this evening as an upper level ridge
becomes entrenched across the Great Basin. Temperatures will
increase in response, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s
across the WAsatch Front and near 110 for St. George Tuesday
afternoon.

Aside from locally reduced visibility near ongoing wildfires
(mainly Monroe Canyon and Beulah), little impacts to sensible
weather through the short term forecast.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday), Issued 359 AM MDT... A hot
airmass will remain in place at the beginning of the long term
period, as mid level ridging becomes centered across the forecast
area. Temperatures will continue to trend 2-4 degrees warmer
across northern Utah, with KSLC likely reaching the 100F mark for
the 6th time this season (NBM 25th-75th percentile for max temp
Wednesday is 99-101). Meanwhile max temps across central and
southern Utah will run closer to persistence on Wednesday.

As is fairly typical with strong mid level ridges in August, mid
level moisture will become entrained in this ridge by Wednesday.
This will bring a chance for high based convection initially tied
to the terrain during the afternoon, but potentially spreading
into adjacent valleys late in the day. Strong microburst winds and
isolated dry lightning are the primary threats with any storms
which develop, with only a minimal chance for measurable
precipitation.

This ridge axis will shift east by Thursday allowing for an
additional influx of moisture allowing PW values to exceed 0.5"
across the forecast area. Despite this, the boundary layer will
remain quite dry with dew points remaining below 40F Thursday
afternoon. As such, would anticipate in increased threat for dry
lightning across the state Thursday afternoon/evening with the
chance for measurable precipitation slowly increasing as the
afternoon/evening progresses owing to gradual moistening of the
boundary layer from top down.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases Friday through the weekend,
and largely centers around how long this moisture is able to
linger before being eroded under a general southwesterly flow
aloft. EPS members tend to favor keeping this moisture in place
heading into the weekend, and the longer residence time would tend
to favor a better chance for thunderstorms capable of producing
rainfall in excess of .10" over time. Meanwhile GEFS members favor
eroding this moisture a little more quickly, favoring a drier
weekend. Regardless, this influx moisture appears to be temporary
with the forecast trending drier toward the end of the long term
period.

With the ridge shifting east and the increase in moisture/cloud
cover during the latter portion of the week, max temps will trend
lower and return to near climo by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Winds will continue clocking around to
northwesterly through the afternoon into the evening hours at the
KSLC terminal. Gusts up to 20kts will continue, subsiding around
01z. Around 03-04z, drainage flow will prevail with generally south-
southeast winds occurring at the terminal. VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the TAF period.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Clear VFR conditions will
persist across UT and southwest WY through the period. Gusts up to
20-25kts are expected to continue across KEVW, KSVR, and KBCE which
are expected to subside around sunset. Similar conditions appear
likely tomorrow with VFR conditions continuing across the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Northerly flow is bringing another day of elevated
to locally critical fire weather conditions in the mountains and
adjacent valleys of central and southern Utah. With high pressure
moving into the Great Basin Tuesday, winds will decrease. While
very dry humidities will continue, mid-level moisture will begin
to increase Wednesday into Thursday. Initially, expect isolated
lightning threat across mainly the southern mountains, with a more
widespread threat of lightning Thursday. Storms may trend wetter
by Friday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Worster/Seaman/DeSmet

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