Frisco, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

489
FXUS64 KFWD 230614
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1214 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above-average and potentially record warm temperatures are
  expected through the rest of the week, including Christmas Eve
  and Christmas Day.

- There is increasing confidence in a return to normal
  temperatures by the beginning of next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1209 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

An unseasonably warm and humid airmass continues to remain in
place across the entire region. Southerly winds of 5-15 mph will
continue to draw up very moist air from the Gulf, with dew points
well into the 60s. Ample moisture in the boundary layer in
conjunction with subsidence aloft owing to our synoptic scale
ridge/high pressure system will set the stage for morning stratus
to build in overnight and last through the morning hours this
week, especially for locations south of I-20 and east of US-281.

Forecast soundings show the morning saturated layer to be under 1
km deep, which all but negates any potential for drizzle. Instead,
expect areas of patchy fog to develop between 3 AM and 9 AM CDT.
With the persistent return of moisture throughout the day on
Tuesday, Wednesday morning fog looks to be more widespread and
potentially denser, especially for portions of Central Texas and
the Brazos Valley. Areas of fog in this region may feature
visibilities at or below 1 mile, becoming less dense and more
patchy in coverage with northward extent towards the I-20
corridor. Any fog/stratus that is able to develop during the
overnight hours should burn off by the early afternoon.

The upper-level ridge currently in place continues to be
exceptionally deep, with 500 hPa heights approaching 590 dm
(typical 500 hPa heights for June and early September). At the
surface, this will manifest itself as continued near-record high
temperatures for this time of year. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday
are expected to be in the upper 70s and lower 80s with the warmest
temperatures west of the I-35 corridor. There is some uncertainty
with exact high temperatures for areas south of I-20 and east of
US-281 due to morning cloud cover. Clouds that linger longer than
expected may result in observed high temperatures 2-5 degrees
lower than forecast. Regardless, even these less likely lower
temperatures would be ~15 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1209 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Upper-level ridging will dominate the pattern aloft through the
end of this week and into the weekend bringing continued well-
above normal and near record to record high temperatures. High
temperatures Thursday through Saturday will likely be in the low
and mid 80s across the region, with the warmest temperatures
expected on Friday. The breakdown of expected highs and daily
records during this time frame can be found below this discussion.

By the end of this weekend, there is an increasing signal for a
cold front to move through bringing a return of average
temperatures for the New Year. While run to run consistency has
been lacking, lending to considerably uncertainty with regards to
the timing and magnitude of this cold front, I am cautiously
optimistic that by Monday highs will have returned to the 50s with
mornings lows at the start of next week dipping back down into
the 30s. More progressive solutions bring this cold front through
Saturday night, while slower guidance holds it off until around
mid-day Sunday. Regardless of the details, it looks like there is
light at the end of the tunnel for this anomalous December warmth.



Dallas/Fort Worth

Thursday 12/25: 80(Record of 82 set in 2021)
Friday 12/26: 84 (Record of 83 set in 2008)
Saturday 12/27:82(Record of 82 set in 2005)

Waco

Thursday 12/25:77(Record of 82 set in 2021)
Friday 12/26:82(Record of 84 set in 2016)
Saturday 12/27:80(Record of 85 set in 2005)


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

MVFR/IFR low-stratus is expected to quickly build in from the
south, first reaching KACT by 07Z, and then DFW 2-3 hours later.
There is some uncertainty with timing of ceiling restrictions:
+/- 1 hour on the onset, and +/- 2 hours for the time of clearing
at all TAF sites. Regardless of the exact time of onset and
clearing of these clouds, expect a period of IFR OVC, most likely
between 11Z and 16Z (exception of KAFW and KFTW that may remain
just northwest enough to only have a couple hours of broken IFR
instead of a more persistent OVC stratus deck).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  63  79  64 /   0   0   0   0
Waco                79  65  78  65 /   0   0   0   0
Paris               73  62  74  63 /   0   0   0   0
Denton              73  62  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
McKinney            73  61  78  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dallas              74  64  79  64 /   0   0   0   0
Terrell             74  65  77  65 /   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           78  66  79  66 /   0   0   0   0
Temple              78  65  79  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       76  58  81  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah