Frisco, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

669
FXUS64 KFWD 131821
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1221 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger is expected Wednesday and Friday afternoons.

- Isolated light rain showers will be possible (20-30%) for areas
  south of I-20 today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Though the CONUS` upper-level pattern is generally a somewhat
static and highly amplified long-wave trough-ridge dipole
(troughing over the eastern CONUS and ridging out west), a cut-off
low that has drifted into the Southern Great Plains from Northern
Mexico will bring widespread upper-level cloud cover and light
rain showers with the little Pacific moisture this disturbance has
been able to bring poleward. Despite PWATs in the 0.5" - 1.0"
range and modest forcing for ascent downstream the mid-level vort
max currently situated over the Texas Hill Country, substantial
dry air (as seen in the 12Z FWD sounding) below 500 hPa will
greatly inhibit what precipitation is able to make it to the
surface. Nonetheless, there have been some reports of light rain
across Central Texas this morning, so will maintain the potential
for isolated light rain showers (20-30%) for locations south of
I-20 today.

Tonight, low temperatures will be 5-10 degree above normal, with
persistent southwesterly winds of 5-10 mph and lingering high
cloud cover preventing more efficient radiative cooling. Aloft, a
shortwave will round the west side of the longwave trough
currently positioned over the Appalachians. As this upper-level
disturbance dives south, it is expected to amplify and replace the
current trough over the eastern CONUS. Unfortunately for those
wishing for rain, moisture and forcing for ascent will remain well
to the north and east, with a dry cold front being the only sign
at the surface of a seemingly more robust upper-level
disturbance. Frontal passage is expected sometime Wednesday
morning, with winds quickly shifting from westerly to northerly.
By noon, dry and windy conditions will be in place across the
entire region as north winds will be sustained at 15-25 mph,
potentially occasionally gusting to the 35-40 mph range. Winds
will taper with the loss of diurnally driven mixing, resulting in
a substantial reduction in wind speeds within the 1-2 hours after
sunset. With minimum RH values in the 25-40% range, there will be
elevated fire weather concerns Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Wednesday night, north winds will remain and weaken to 5-10 mph.
This in combination with clearing skies and dry air at the surface
will help temperatures drop near or below freezing area-wide.

Thursday, the shallowness of the cold airmass responsible for
Wednesday`s cold front will be apparent, with highs in the low and
mid-50s east of the I-35 corridor, but in the mid-60s to near 70
degrees in the slightly higher elevations of the Big Country.
Continued subsidence aloft and a very dry troposphere will keep
skies clear during the day on Thursday.

Friday morning, a cold front will dive south across the region
bringing another day of gusty north winds at 15-25 mph. Again,
with forcing for ascent and moisture remaining far to the north
and east, this will be another dry frontal passage. Elevated fire
weather concerns will return to the area again with RH values
Friday afternoon dropping into the 15-30% range. The driest air is
expected to be across portions of the Big Country.

The cool dry air and relatively clear skies in place this weekend
behind the front will result in near to slightly above normal
afternoon highs (upper 50s and 60s) and near to slightly below
normal lows (upper 20s to upper 30s).


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

There will be a window between 08Z and 12Z where LLWS may bring
minor impacts to Metroplex TAF sites. Surface winds will be
WNW/NW (280-320) at 5-7 kts with flow at 2 kft NNW (330-350) at
40-50 kts during this time. Went with a more middle ground
scenario for winds at the top of the LLWS layer for TAFs (40-45
kts). LLWS is not expected to be a concern at KACT tomorrow
morning. After 12Z, expect gusty north winds to develop at the
surface, with peak gusts up to 30 kts possible. VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of this forecast
period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  45  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
Waco                62  43  63  34 /  20  10   0   0
Paris               67  43  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Denton              68  41  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
McKinney            67  43  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
Dallas              68  46  62  35 /  10   0   0   0
Terrell             67  42  62  29 /  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           66  44  65  34 /  20  10   0   0
Temple              63  41  65  32 /  20   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       67  40  62  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah