Dallas, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

787
FXUS64 KFWD 202315
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
615 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Partly sunny and dry conditions are expected on Wednesday.

- Low storm chances return Thursday into Friday with better
  chances for storms late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening through Thursday Morning/

A tranquil and dry forecast is in store through Wednesday night.
With our earlier cold front draped across southern and
southeastern Texas near a Center-Brenham-Cotulla line, all of
North and Central Texas is now within the post-frontal airmass. A
surface high will continue to slide through the region tonight,
resulting in lighter winds overnight. Tomorrow morning will be a
bit cooler in response to the drier air and northerly flow, with
low temperatures expected to bottom out in the 50s to low 60s. The
aforementioned surface high will eventually exit to our southeast
early tomorrow morning, forcing winds to shift back to south-
southeast flow. This return flow will work in tandem with partly
clear skies during the day tomorrow, aiding in pushing afternoon
high temperatures into the mid 80s to low 90s. Surface lee
cyclogenesis and an incoming mid-level disturbance to our
northwest will promote a sharpening dryline to our west and the
stationary front retreating back northward as a warm front early
Thursday morning, resulting in the spread of higher moisture
across the state. Expect slightly warmer morning temperatures
between 60-70 degrees.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 332 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025/
/Thursday through Tuesday/

Moisture is expected to surge back northward quickly as
dewpoints climb from the low 50s into the lower 70s by Thursday
afternoon on the leading edge of a retreating warm front. Modest
northwest flow aloft and persistent warm advection will likely
lead to at least a few scattered showers and thunderstorms north
of I-20 during peak heating. This pattern will generally remain in
place Friday and Saturday with afternoon convection mainly to the
west and north of the region as weak ridging builds in, but strong
afternoon instability will remain pooled across the Southern
Plains. There is a low chances that organized convection off to
the northwest could make a run at North Texas either late Friday
night or late Saturday night. Right now, we`ll keep the forecast
dry, but will have to monitor this scenario as it is shown by a
few of the individual ensemble members. Temperatures will steadily
climb into the lower to mid 90s by Saturday and with dewpoints
back in the low 70s, we`ll see heat indices near 100 degrees.

Better storm chances will arrive on Sunday as a fairly strong late
season front pushes south through the Plains. Thunderstorms should
develop during peak heating along this frontal boundary although
there are some discrepancies in the placement of the front this
far out. Nonetheless, strong instability to the south of the
boundary should allow any convection to be sustained into the
nighttime hours with some redevelopment along the front on Monday.
Mid level flow is generally weak, but given the instability,
at least some low end severe potential exists, including the
possibility of damaging winds. We`ll have the highest PoPs
(40-60%) late Sunday night into early Monday with convection
tapering off from north to south as the frontal boundary pushes
into Central Texas. A relatively active pattern looks like it will
persist through the middle and latter part of next week keeping at
least low rain/storm chances around.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Northerly winds will continue to decrease in speed this evening
and will gradually becoming light and southerly late tonight at
D10 and closer to daybreak at ACT in response to post-frontal high
pressure moving across the region. South-to-southeast winds will
prevail through the rest of the TAF period. VFR will prevail
through the next 24-30 hours, with only a smattering of high-level
cirrus expected.

Prater

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  89  67  90  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
Waco                58  89  66  93  69 /   0   0   0   5  10
Paris               58  86  60  85  63 /   0   0   0  10  20
Denton              57  89  62  89  64 /   0   0   0  10  20
McKinney            59  87  63  88  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dallas              63  89  66  90  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
Terrell             59  86  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   5  10
Corsicana           61  89  67  93  69 /   0   0   0   5  10
Temple              59  91  68  95  69 /   0   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       57  90  64  94  65 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$