Dallas, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

970
FXUS64 KFWD 151030
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
530 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A complex of thunderstorms is expected to push into North Texas
  through the morning hours with highest storm chances (50-70%)
  along and north of I-20.

- Low rain chances (20%) continue Monday, with seasonably hot and
  humid conditions throughout the week. Daily low rain chances
  (20-30%) are expected Wednesday night into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The complex of thunderstorms across Central Oklahoma continues to
push southward this morning into a moderately unstable airmass,
however the focused low level inflow will continue to weaken over
the next few hours as these storms encounter increasing
inhibition. The consensus of the model guidance continues to push
these storms south of the Red River although with varying degrees
of intensity. Given the latest radar observations being a little
more robust and farther south that depicted by any of the
guidance, we`ll lean a little more heavily on a farther southward
trajectory of storms than previously forecast. This should result
in fairly high PoPs for areas along and north of I-20 through late
morning. The threat for severe weather appears to be rather low,
although a marginally severe wind gust isn`t out of the question.
We should see a decrease in coverage through midday with
additional storms developing across Central Texas and our
southeast counties through late afternoon.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Monday/

A complex of thunderstorms currently in progress across Central
Oklahoma will continue to spread south toward the Red River
overnight. The consensus of the high resolution guidance indicates
that this cluster of thunderstorms will make it into North Texas
around sunrise, although in a weakened state as instability will
be at a diurnal minimum. While these storms currently pose a
severe threat, this will diminish with time as they move south. We
can`t rule out an isolated severe wind gust through the early
morning hours. While it`s still a little uncertain whether or not
convection will remain intact all the way down to the I-20
corridor, it does appear likely that a strong southward moving
outflow boundary will spread as far south as I-20 by mid morning.
This boundary will also likely serve as a focus for additional
convective development into the afternoon hours. We`ve raised PoPs
to 50-60% across our northern counties during the morning hours
and have 20-40% along the I-20 corridor. Additional storms are
also expected to develop across southeast TX where abundant
moisture remains in place and sea breeze activity increases.

All of this convective activity should decrease in coverage during
the evening hours with loss of heating and Sunday night should
generally be quiet, although warm and muggy. Stronger mid level
ridging will begin to push eastward during the day Monday with
isolated convective activity expected mainly across our far
eastern counties.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/
/Monday Night Onward/

Seasonably warm conditions are expected throughout the upcoming
week. Afternoon highs will generally be in the upper 80s to low
90s on a daily basis with warm/muggy mornings in the 70s. A
shortwave trough will usher a weak cold front towards the region
late Wednesday, resulting in the return of low rain chances
Wednesday night into Thursday. Additional low rain chances will
linger into the weekend as seabreeze activity makes a run at our
southern zones on a daily basis.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR cigs have spread northward into the D10 airspace over the last
hour, although they have become a little more ragged. We`ll likely
include a TEMPO for MVFR cigs through mid morning. A complex of
storms will approach from the north over the next few hours and
we`ll continue to show some -TSRA around 16Z accompanied by a
fairly stout outflow boundary. Any convection should move south of
the airports by early afternoon with VFR prevailing through the
rest of the valid TAF period.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  76  93  77  95 /  40  20  10   0   0
Waco                91  75  92  75  93 /  40  10  10   0   0
Paris               86  72  88  74  90 /  50  30  20   0   0
Denton              92  73  93  76  95 /  50  20  10   0   0
McKinney            90  74  91  76  93 /  50  20  20   0   0
Dallas              92  77  95  78  95 /  40  20  10   0   0
Terrell             90  74  90  75  91 /  30  20  20   0   0
Corsicana           90  75  90  76  91 /  40  20  20   0   0
Temple              92  74  91  73  93 /  50  10  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       93  74  96  75  97 /  40  10  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$