Dallas, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

388
FXUS64 KFWD 240551
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1151 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above-average and potentially record warm temperatures well
  into the 80s are expected through Saturday.

- A strong cold front will bring strong north winds and more
  winter-like temperatures back to the region starting Sunday
  through the early part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Tonight will be another mild and humid night with lows and dew
points in the 60s. Cloud cover and areas of fog will build in from
the southeast overnight tonight, bringing reduced visibilities to
much of Central Texas, East Texas and the Brazos Valley. Most
will see visibilities in the 1-3 mile range, though more isolated
areas could see reductions in visibility down below a mile. The
northern edge of these clouds/fog should reach the I-20 corridor
by around day break Wednesday morning lending uncertainty as to
whether those in the DFW Metroplex will wake up to sun or clouds.
The most likely scenario will generally keep those south of
Highway 183 cloudier, and those north of 183 more clear. However,
given the uncertainty in the northward progression of the
overnight clouds/fog, don`t be surprised if there are patchy areas
of fog and low clouds in the entire DFW Metroplex through mid-
morning. The abundant moisture and cloud cover moving in will also
keep overnight lows in the low and mid 60s, potentially exceeding
daily record warm overnight low temperatures by 1-3 degrees
(meaning no other night this same calendar day in current
climatological records will be as warm as tonight).

Any cloud cover that develops overnight should burn off by the
afternoon, paving the way for another exceptionally warm day for
late December. Though high clouds moving in from the west may
knock down afternoon highs by 1-2 degrees, most everyone across
the region will be in the low 80s. Even with these temperatures
being 25+ degrees above average for this time of year, we will
still fall short of the daily record high on Christmas Eve by 5-7
degrees.

Christmas Eve night into Christmas day will nearly be a carbon
copy weather wise, with clouds developing southeast to northwest,
mild and humid overnight with lows in the 60s, and highs again
expected to climb into the lower 80s. Daily records on Christmas
Day look to potentially be tied or broken, as these are also in
the low 80s. Due to more abundant sun and a somewhat drier
boundary layer to the west, locations in the Big Country may even
warm into the mid 80s for Christmas Day. The one caveat to these
warmer temperatures just like Christmas Eve will be the presence
of upper-level clouds being shunted off to the east from a strong
Pacific Coast storm system. Should these clouds be thicker than
anticipated, we may see high temperatures a few degrees colder
than forecast (still ~20 degrees above average).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Near-record to record warmth will continue through Saturday with
daily highs in the 80s. Friday looks to be the hottest day of this
December heat with widespread highs in the mid and upper 80s.
There has been a persistent signal of some sort of dryline feature
setting up across the Big Country, bringing dew points down into
the upper 40s (humidity into the 20s) west of a line roughly from
Gainesville to Comanche. The combination of the dry air in place,
clear skies, and southwest winds (added warming component from
adiabatic compression off the Mexican Plateau) will set the stage
for a few locations in the Big Country to potentially hit 90
degrees (10-15% chance); exceptionally rare for late December in
North Texas. We will keep monitoring any potential for upper-
level clouds to inhibit these kinds of temperatures, but as of now
would not be surprised to see a few 90s pop up in surface
observations Friday afternoon in the aforementioned area.

Saturday, while cooler than Friday, should still be very warm with
on more day of highs in the low and mid 80s before a strong cold
front sweeps through the area Sunday morning. With the timing of
the front trending a little slower than in previous forecast
cycles, Sunday should still be an above average day temperature
wise with highs in the 60s and low 70s. However, post-frontal
winds out of the north will be very gusty, with gusts of 30-35 mph
possible.

Monday morning will be nearly polar opposite to what we`ve seen
this week, with lows in the 30s. Near to below freezing
temperatures will be possible generally north of I-20 and in the
Big Country. With this much colder airmass firmly in place across
the region by Monday, highs very well may remain in the 40s, with
Monday night featuring widespread sub-freezing temperatures across
North and Central Texas.

All this to be said, if you enjoy the warmth, cherish these next
few days because the end is in sight. And if you love the cold,
don`t worry, relief looks to be on the way for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Widespread fog and low stratus (prevail IFR, patchy LIFR) will
again move into Central Texas (KACT) from the south-southeast
tonight. The northward expansion into DFW is a lot more uncertain
at this time, with guidance placing the northern edge of these
reduced cigs/visibilities right through the Metroplex. Current
guidance looks to prevail MVFR for a few hours around daybreak,
though will watch the potential for patchy fog and IFR
visibilities to intrude on Metroplex TAF sites (primarily KDFW,
KDAL, and KGKY) between 12Z and 16Z (decided to be more
conservative on the timeframe for the TEMPO IFR due to
uncertainties in timing, persistence and coverage). Will continue
to monitor the northward progression of low-stratus and fog from
the southeast overnight, and will make any necessary amendments to
the TAFs should observations deviate from model guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  64  81  63 /   0   0   0   0
Waco                79  64  80  63 /   0   0   0   0
Paris               80  62  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
Denton              81  61  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
McKinney            79  62  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dallas              81  64  81  64 /   0   0   0   0
Terrell             78  63  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           81  66  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
Temple              79  63  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       83  59  86  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah