Austin, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

829
FXUS64 KEWX 020826
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
326 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Key Messages:

- Low risk for an isolated strong to severe storms

- Highs could get into the 100 to 102 degree range along the Rio
Grande

A dryline pushes into the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and
over parts of the Hill Country throughout the day. As the dryline
moves from northwest to southeast into the local area, there is a
slight chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two ahead
of it. Those areas are likely to be the Hill Country and locations
along and east of Highway 77. We are capped through midday, however,
the cap weakens around noon time and any storm that manages to
develop in the moist and unstable sector could become strong to
severe. SPC Day One Convective Outlook highlights the southern
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country with a marginal risk (1 of 5) of
severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging wind gusts to be
the severe weather hazards.

It is going to be hot with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
ranging from 100 to 102 degrees along the Rio Grande. The dryline
pushes back to the northwest late this afternoon/early evening.
Later this evening, a second opportunity shows for isolated showers
and elevated convection across the Rio Grande/southern Edwards
Plateau as an upper level disturbance pushes from northeast Mexico
into central Texas. However, it is going to take a lot of energy to
break the capping inversion.

For Thursday, the dryline pushes into the Rio Grande/southern
Edwards Plateau, and Hill country. Once again, we are going to be
capped per several model soundings for most of the day, but if any
storms develop, could turn strong to severe especially across the
Hill Country. Other than that, another day is in store for Thursday
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and mid 90s to 101 along
the Rio Grande.

Fire Weather...

Elevated fire weather concerns are possible across the Rio Grande
Plains and southern Edwards Plateau today and Thursday as minimum
relative humidity values range from the teens to lower 20s. Winds
stay light through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Key messages:

- Unseasonably Warm Friday, Unseasonably Cool This Weekend into Next
Week

- Chances of Showers and Thunderstorms Thursday night Through
Saturday

A stalled cold front across or just north of the Edwards Plateau,
Hill Country, and Central Texas Thursday night into Friday makes a
move across South Central Texas late Friday into Saturday morning.
An upper level trough moves over the southwestern states Friday,
then out into the Plains on Saturday. Forcing by these features will
generate showers and thunderstorms. Convective parameters indicate a
potential for strong to severe storms late Friday into early
Saturday. Large MUCAPE, steep mid level lapse rates, strong deep
layer shear, and high SRH are noted. A portion of the upper level
trough lags behind for a few lingering elevated showers Saturday
afternoon into night. A southerly lower level flow maintains the
unseasonably warm temperatures on Friday. Then, a northerly lower
level flow ushers in cold advection for unseasonably cool
temperatures across the north on Saturday and all areas on Sunday and
Monday. Although southerly winds return on Tuesday, the warming
trend will be gradual keeping temperatures unseasonably cool. A drier
airmass over the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau brings
elevated fire weather conditions there most days, with near critical
fire weather possible on Saturday and Sunday due to breezy winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

MVFR cigs are expected for the KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF through at least
17Z Wednesday. Southerly winds are forecasted through mid to late
Wednesday morning. Late Wednesday morning, the wind flow becomes
light and variable for a few hours before turning to the east-
southeast most of the afternoon period. VFR conditions return around
18Z for the I-35 terminals. For KDRT, the wind stays light from the
east-southeast overnight and becomes variable around 14Z to 19Z
Wednesday. An easterly flow is expected for KDRT for most of the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              88  71  88  72 /  20  10  10  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  87  71  89  71 /  20  10  10  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     90  71  90  72 /  10  10  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            87  69  87  70 /  10  10  10  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  70  95  71 /   0   0   0  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  70  88  71 /  20  10  10  30
Hondo Muni Airport             92  69  92  70 /  10  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        88  70  89  71 /  10  10  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  72  88  73 /  20  10  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       90  71  90  73 /  10  10  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           92  72  92  74 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...04
Aviation...17