Austin, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

918
FXUS64 KEWX 160515
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1215 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry this weekend, then stormy with heavy rainfall possible
  for much of next week.

- Increasing humidity and heat indices through Tuesday, with some
  spots feeling like 100-105+ Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Regional satellite imagery shows large scale southwesterly flow
aloft, which is responsible for our mid to upper level clouds early
this afternoon. A long wave trough that will eventually eject out
over the central CONUS is just now moving inland over the Pacific NW
and will impact our sensible weather for the entirety of this
forecast. At the surface, a low is situated over the Texas Panhandle
that will remain mostly stationary through the short term period. A
trailing dryline was noted per SPC mesoanalysis from Perryton to
Childress to southwest through Big Spring and further south just
east of Fort Stockton. This dryline will be the primary driver of
convection the next couple days. Most of south central Texas will
remain dry, but portions of Val Verde and Edwards County may see a
shower or isolated storm this evening and again Saturday evening.
Humidity continues to increase as southeasterly surface flow pumps
Gulf moisture northward into central Texas. SPC has a small sliver
of Val Verde in a Marginal risk this afternoon/evening for severe
storms, but the bulk of storm activity should remain west of our
CWA. With regard to temperatures, opted to blend in some bias
corrected MOS to account for NBM Max and Min T`s that were near the
higher end of guidance. This will nudge temps down a couple degrees
to account for the slight cooling effects of high level cirrus and
mid-level cloud cover today and tomorrow. Overall, it will still be
warm, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s along with mornings in
the upper 60s to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

An active weather pattern begins Sunday and continues through the
remainder of the long term forecast period. An upper level trough
will remain situated over the central Rockies and eject a series of
disturbances out over the Plains states. Meanwhile, southwesterly
flow aloft won`t be going anywhere anytime soon, with several
upstream shortwaves expected to move through south central Texas.
A cold front will slide south on Monday, but will take some time to
reach our area as it somewhat stalls out over central Texas. This,
in combination with ample PWATs and surface moisture, will result in
several rounds of heavy rainfall, with the potential for a few
strong to severe storms as well, particularly Tuesday evening and
Wednesday evening. WPC currently has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4)
for flooding rain over south central Texas Monday and Tuesday.
Upgrades to these outlooks are possible, but forecast confidence
will need to increase on the location and timing of heavier
rainfall.

One other thing to note: heat indices will climb into the triple
digits Monday and Tuesday before the front arrives Wednesday. With
muggy mornings in the upper 70s and afternoons in the upper 80s to
upper 90s Monday/Tuesday, it will feel hotter as humidity rapidly
increases ahead of the approaching cold front. Cooler temperatures
arrive behind the front with highs in the lower to middle 80s by
Thursday and Friday as move into Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

MVFR ceilings will develop over the next hour or two in the Austin
and San Antonio areas and then around sunrise at DRT. Ceilings
will hold at this level until late morning when they will recover
to VFR. Winds will be from the south and speeds will increase by
late morning and become gusty. MVFR ceilings will develop again
late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  76  91  78 /   0  10  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  77  92  79 /   0  10  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  75  92  78 /   0   0  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            87  73  86  75 /   0   0  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           94  76  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  75  90  77 /   0  10  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             91  75  91  78 /   0   0  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  76  92  78 /   0  10  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  77  91  79 /   0  10  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  76  92  78 /   0   0  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           93  76  93  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...05