Nashville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

003
FXUS64 KOHX 232336
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
536 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 532 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

 - A warming trend is in store this week as high temperatures warm
   to the 50s and 60s.

 - Light rain returns to the area Christmas Day, mainly in the
   western half, and another round of rain Friday through the
   weekend. Severe weather is not expected.

 - Additional rounds of rain will move in next week, with above
   normal precipitation in the forecast through the end of the
   month.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Warmer temps begin moving in today as southerly flow returns to
the mid state. Highs in the 50s will be common through the week as
well as some rounds of rain in the forecast. But expecting dry
conditions today and tomorrow as we get weak upper ridging
overhead before the southern Plains trough continues eastward for
Wednesday. Low temps tonight will be around and below freezing
for the Plateau and points south, but cloud cover in the north and
west should keep temps above freezing in those areas.

A weak shortwave ahead of the main trough may allow for some
precip in the far north and northwest after midnight tonight and
into the morning Tuesday, but QPF remains very low within the
model data attm. Kept in mention of slight chance pops early
Tuesday morning to reflect this, but wouldnt be surprised if some
sprinkles/light rain snuck into the northwest Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

As the upper trough strengthens a bit as it moves east, additional
moisture will move northward, and models now keep most of the
moisture off to our west. Still held on to some precip for the
western half Christmas Day, but those amounts now are just a few
hundredths for most and a tenth or so for the far NW. Getting
later in the day on Christmas, the upper trough weakens
considerably as it moves northeast, giving us brief shortwave
ridging later in the day. Light rain will be possible on Thursday,
but much better chances for rain move in for Friday and the
weekend when a much stronger trough moves east. Multiple lobes of
the upper trough will swing through the southern Plains into the
Midwest, giving us waves of rain chances (40-70%) Friday through
Sunday. Highest rainfall totals right now look to be Saturday
night into Sunday, and when its all said and done, 1 to 2 inches
of rain is in the forecast Friday through early next week.
Currently, there`s not too much instability with these waves of
rain next weekend, so severe chances are low attm. Clusters
support the lack of any strong to severe currently, but the ECMWF
ensembles do have a slightly stronger trough

Next week, above average rainfall is expected as an active weather
pattern continues. Models have little agreement other than that!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

VFR conditions continue over the next 24 hours. Some high clouds
move in tonight. CKV could see some light rain after 09z, but
looking like a low chance. Put a prob30 for -RA between 09-15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      37  55  38  58 /  10  10  10  20
Clarksville    39  53  39  56 /  20  10  30  30
Crossville     28  52  33  54 /  10  10   0  10
Columbia       33  56  35  57 /  10  10  20  20
Cookeville     32  52  36  57 /  10  10  10  10
Jamestown      31  50  33  55 /  10  10   0  10
Lawrenceburg   32  56  35  57 /  10  10  10  20
Murfreesboro   33  55  34  59 /  10  10  10  20
Waverly        38  54  39  56 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Cravens