Nashville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

097
FXUS64 KOHX 131743
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

- Humid with medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms
  each day through the weekend. Greatest rain chances each
  afternoon and early evening.

- Generally low risk for severe weather, but some of the storms
  will contain torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty
  winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A long wave ridge is set up over the central part of the country
with an upper level low spinning over the plains. This upper
level low is what will bring unsettle weather to Middle TN through
the weekend. It will slowly push to the east today moving into
the western part of the state by the end of the day. We are seeing
a line of showers and thunderstorms east of the TN River. This
line will continue to push east into the afternoon. We will also
see additional scattered activity develop across the area. Meso
Analysis is estimating 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE with the HREF
forecasting 1000-2000+ j/kg later this afternoon. Bulk shear is
marginal 20-25 knots. Lapse rates are rather poor and there is
limited CAPE in the hail growth zone. Overall the set up for
severe weather isn`t great but can`t rule out a few isolated
stronger storms mainly from Nashville east, wind would be the main
concern. Dew points have pushed into the upper 60s to lower 70s
with PWATs pushing up to 2" in some areas. With all of this
moisture heavy rain can be expected with any thunderstorms. The
activity will be scattered and that will keep the threat for
widespread flooding low but some localized flooding can`t be ruled
out. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s.

Overall things dry out overnight but it will remain humid and
that could bring a popup shower or storm but nothing widespread.
The upper level low will be overhead on Saturday bringing
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon
and evening. Shear will be less tomorrow and we will keep the poor
lapse rates in place. This will keep the severe threat very low.
PWATs will remain very high and localized flooding will continue
to be a concern. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The upper level low will slowly be pushing more east on Sunday.
We are still going to see widespread scattered activity area wide
for the afternoon and evening but the higher chances will be in
eastern areas. Shear and lapse rates will remain poor keeping the
severe threat low.

Weak troughing is then going to linger over Middle TN for the
remainder of week. This will keep popup afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. It will be a high CAPE
low shear environment. This will keep widespread severe threat
low but could see some gusty winds with thunderstorms as they
collapse on themselves. Highs will gradually warm back into the
upper 80s to lower 90s by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A deep upper trough is situated to the west of Middle Tennessee
this afternoon, and has plunged the region into another days-long
unsettled weather pattern. Already, one line of showers with a few
embedded storms is tracking across the mid state with additional
convection moving up from our southwest. So we`ve got some TEMPO
groups to handle the afternoon activity, with PROB30 groups
handling our rain chances for later in the afternoon and evening.
With the exception of the initial period of the TAFs, there is low
confidence in the timing of the showers later on owing to the
scattered nature of the expected cells.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  84  71  87 /  60  90  70  60
Clarksville    70  82  70  85 /  60  80  60  30
Crossville     66  80  65  79 /  70  90  70  90
Columbia       69  83  69  86 /  70  80  60  50
Cookeville     67  80  67  80 /  80  90  60  80
Jamestown      66  80  65  80 /  90  90  70  90
Lawrenceburg   68  83  68  85 /  70  90  70  60
Murfreesboro   69  85  69  86 /  70  80  80  70
Waverly        68  81  68  85 /  60  70  50  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Rose