Lebanon, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

823
FXUS64 KOHX 240024
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
624 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

- On and off light showers through tomorrow. No severe weather is
  expected.

- Above-normal temperatures in store for Christmas Day with
  temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

- A cold front will move through Sunday, bringing widespread rain
  and a substantial temperature drop by the start of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

All is quiet across Middle TN this evening with little changes
made to the forecast on this update. A low chance for light
showers continues overnight, but these still will not be
impactful with just a few hundredths of an inch at best. We will
have to watch for the development of fog overnight. Moisture
advection has decreased dewpoint depressions, and these high
humidities overnight may lead to the development of the fog. NBM
probabilities give a 50-70% chance that fog develops, especially
along the Plateau. Cloud cover persisting overnight should prevent
widespread dense fog from developing, and any fog that does
develop will diminish early morning. A warm Christmas Eve is then
ahead with temperatures reaching near 70 with low rain chances
continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

We`ve seen considerable moistening of the low-levels over the
last 24 hours due to steady southwesterly winds. Very light
showers ongoing this morning with a large swath of low stratus.
Nothing gets you in the holiday spirit quite like mid 60s and
overcast skies, right? As the expansive ridge aloft continues its
push east and we reside under northwesterly flow, our temperatures
will continue to gradually rise with periods of light showers.
Rainfall amounts between now and Wednesday should only amount to a
few hundreths of an inch and that`s if you even get anything. A
whole 0.02" was in the rain bucket at OHX this morning!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

For Christmas Day, temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to low
70s. A weak shortwave will ripple along the eastern edge of the
ridge during the afternoon, resulting in a few spotty showers
mainly over the eastern half of the CWA through the evening. The
majority of Middle TN will be dry and warm with a steady breeze.
Much of the same can be expected Friday and Saturday with
temperatures continuing to warm. By Saturday, the ridge axis will
be centered overhead, giving us our warmest day of the week with
highs in the mid 70s. This is the point when our upper air pattern
shifts as a deep low traversing the Great Lakes brings a strong
cold front through the area. Exact timing and impact details
remain uncertain, though taking an early look at soundings show
limited instability overall. This system also isn`t quite as
dynamic in terms of jet streak placement and strength of winds
aloft. 850mb winds look to be around 30-35 kts as the system
passes. Immense moisture advection will occur leading up to this
frontal passage, drawing in anomalously high PWAT values. Right
now, QPF values range from a quarter of an inch to a half inch,
though the NBM is giving a 20% chance of totals reaching 1".
Regardless, it`s still early and things could change, so stay
tuned for future forecast updates. Temperatures will drop over 30
degrees behind the front with most areas in the low to mid 20s
when we start the day Monday. Precip should be mostly wrapped up
by that point, but a few snow showers could squeak out along the
Plateau as the cold air meets the moisture. Beyond that, we will
once again be left in a dry and bitterly cold airmass as
temperatures drop into the teens by Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Predominantly MVFR conditions this evening, lowering to IFR and
LIFR tonight and into Wednesday morning. Medium confidence in
lowering of VIS across the Plateau with some fog development.
Light isolated showers/drizzle through the overnight. Winds become
light and variable tonight, with some north component before
becoming south between 12-15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      59  71  58  71 /  40  20  10  10
Clarksville    59  70  59  70 /  50  20  10  10
Crossville     55  65  55  66 /  50  20  20  20
Columbia       59  71  57  74 /  20  10   0  10
Cookeville     56  66  57  67 /  70  30  30  20
Jamestown      55  65  57  64 /  60  20  40  30
Lawrenceburg   58  71  57  73 /  20  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   58  70  57  73 /  30  20  10  10
Waverly        58  69  57  71 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Cravens