Kingsport, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

968
FXUS64 KMRX 121846
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
246 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Key Messages:

1. Scattered storms, some strong, will continue this afternoon and
early evening, and again Friday.

Discussion:

Deep southwest flow continues to strengthen across the southern
Appalachians as an upper trough over Texas slowly moves northeast.
Increasing moisture and instability is pulling north with the
highest values across the southern half of Tennessee and southwest
North Carolina. MLCAPES have increased to 2000+ with DCAPES of
500-600. Weak to no shear so convection through this evening will
remain pulse in nature. Main forcing is orographic so greatest
coverage of thunderstorms will be near terrain features then drift
into the valley.

Main concerns with the storms will be heavy rain/localized runoff
due to the slow movement, along with strong and gusty winds up to
40 mph. Main environmental factor for the strong winds will be dry
air entrainment but DCAPE are only around 600 or less. Hail
potential is limited due to high freezing levels (around 15kft),
limited shear and CAPE within the hail growth region.

As sunset approaches convection will diminish with sky remaining
mostly cloudy. Any breaks will allow for fog development.

For Friday, almost a repeat from today but expect
potential/coverage of storms to move translate north due to
increasing moisture and instability. Upper trough will remain well
west of the area with the main forcing remaining area terrain.
Environmental conditions will be very similar to today with CAPES
of 1500-2000 with little to no shear. Main concern will be
localized heavy rainfall/runoff issues and strong and gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Key Messages:

1. Daily storms are expected with increased coverage Friday onward.

2. Near to above normal temperatures expected throughout the
forecast.

Discussion:

Saturday will see the slow moving mid-level trough over the southern
US move more squarely over the southern Appalachians for the
weekend. This will be the predominant factor in bringing about
another stormy weekend on tap for the region. Aiding in the
increased coverage is the surface ridge over the Atlantic, which is
typical this time of year, helping to draw up surface level moisture
from the Gulf into the Tennessee Valley, bringing PWAT levels higher
than usual for the storms to be able to tap into. With the increased
heat and moisture the storms over the weekend, but little else in
the atmosphere working in their favor, the strongest storms will be
capable of brief gusty winds and heavy downpours leading to possible
flash flooding of urban areas. With many areas well above normal
rainfall these past months we`re a bit more prone to flooding as
creeks and rivers become more full from daily showers and
thunderstorms in the same vicinity.

As we head into next week the trough really broadens out and phases
more into the mean flow that will be dominated by a strong ridge
over the Atlantic, with the the Gulf States sitting on the western
edge of this ridge... Which will once again help funnel in more
atmospheric moisture and warming temperatures throughout the
upcoming work week. This heat + moisture will combine to give us our
traditional afternoon summer time showers and thunderstorms.
Typically these storms form along the higher terrain and spread
outward into the valley as the afternoon/evening wears on.
Temperatures will slowly creep warmer and warmer each day during the
work week possibly culminating with Knoxville (TYS) meeting or
exceeding the 90 degree mark for the first time this year. If you`re
a weather nerd (you`ve read this much of the AFD, you are!) then you
may find it interesting that climatologically the mean date that TYS
hits the 90 degree mark is the 2nd of June. So IF we hit 90 at the
end of the week (and it`s not a guarantee quite yet) we`ll be about
20 days later than typical for TYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Increasing moisture and instability generally south of interstate
40 has allowed convection to initially develop along the terrain
features. CHA will likely have the greatest coverage of storms
this afternoon, then TYS. Heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and
lightning will be the main concern.

A showers may move into TRI by late afternoon.

Convection will diminish soon after sunset with patchy fog and
low-cloud development.

Conditions will be mainly VFR Friday morning before convection
redevelops in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  87  72  87 /  30  60  50  90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  85  70  86 /  30  60  50  90
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  85  70  84 /  30  60  50  90
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  84  67  85 /  40  60  40  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
AVIATION...DH