Johnson City, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

459
FXUS64 KMRX 231730
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1230 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

No changes are needed to the forecast as surface high pressure
extends across the area, providing clear skies and light winds.
Highs will reach the mid 40s north to around 50 south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather continues.

2. A warming trend starts today!

Discussion:

Dry weather continues today and tonight. In the upper levels, weak
ridging over the region today will become zonal tonight as a
clipper system moves through the Great Lakes region. At the
surface, high pressure remains over the Southeast. With low level
southerly flow returning, a warming trend starts today! Highs this
afternoon will be mainly in the upper 40s in the Tennessee Valley,
which is still a couple degrees below normal. However, sunny
skies and light winds should help with the chill. With mostly
clear skies tonight lows will be cold in the upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

Key Messages:

Mild temperatures and increasing rain chances second half of the
week and into the weekend.

Discussion:

Christmas eve and Christmas day will begin a period of above normal
temperatures which will continue through the weekend and into next
week. Late on Wednesday and into Thursday a weakening system will
try and traverse through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. The trend
with this system over the past several runs has been to continually
weaken as it pushes through our region. QPF amounts are expected to
be very light, with the best chances for accumulations south of
Interstate 40.

Quiet weather for a brief period at the end of the week and into the
weekend with weak ridging in the mid levels and southerly winds at
the surface will help keep temperatures above seasonal normals. At
the end of the week a front will move through the region being
driven by a shortwave/trough moving through the eastern third of the
Untied States. Still much disagreement in the deterministic models
with how the synoptic level features of this system evolves. While
the specifics of how this system evolves is still a bit up in the
air, most models are in good agreement that there will be enough
energy and moisture associated with it to bring widespread
precipitation to the southern Appalachian region. The faster
solutions bring in precipitation as early as Friday while the slower
evolving models bring the rain in closer to Sunday. At this time all
solutions still keep very warm temperatures and all precipitation
looks to fall as rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

VFR conditions and light winds will continue through this TAF
period. Some high clouds may enter the area late in the period,
but it`s not worth adding another line in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             30  54  36  55 /   0   0  10  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  28  51  33  54 /   0   0   0  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       29  50  33  52 /  10   0  10  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              27  48  33  53 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DGS
AVIATION...DGS