Johnson City, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

178
FXUS64 KMRX 101909
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
309 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Key Messages:

1. Dry conditions continue with a slight warming trend into
Wednesday.

2. Patchy fog possible early Wednesday morning.

Discussion:

Upper trough will continue to eject north and east tonight into
Wednesday. A few isolated showers are present along a weak frontal
boundary to our south but most of the region will remain dry this
evening. Cherokee & Clay counties of North Carolina could see a
brief shower but no real impacts would be expected. Clear and
calm conditions will promote favorable radiational cooling tonight
so expect there to be some fog development in the usual river
valleys, though both the SREF and HREF ensembles suggest drier
air filtering into the region should limit coverage. It is
possible the ensembles could be under-doing fog potential given
the recent wet pattern and saturated soils, particularly the
southern valley where clouds were slower to clear today.
Something to keep an eye on as we head into the night.

Wednesday will feature another dry and pleasant early summer
afternoon. H5 height rises will allow for a slight warming trend
and many locations will be approaching roughly 5 degrees above
seasonal normals. With surface high pressure centered over the
region and weak flow aloft winds will be light as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Key Messages:

1. Scattered to isolated showers/storms in the mountains Thursday
afternoon.

2. Friday through early next week, showers and thunderstorms are
likely each afternoon with humid conditions.

Weak ridging over the region on Wednesday night will start to give
way on Thursday as a low pressure system moves across TX. A
southerly flow through the lower and mid levels will transport Gulf
moisture toward our area, and the southerly flow encountering the NC
mountains will lead to a chance of showers/storms for SW NC and the
TN/NC border counties. Downslope winds off the mountains should keep
most of the TN Valley dry.

The slow-moving low over TX on Thursday will still be west of the MS
River on Friday when it becomes an open wave, and struggles to make
eastward progress against the Atlantic ridge. This will maintain
a warm, moist air mass in our area Friday and Saturday, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly diurnally-
driven.

Deep moisture will be in place by Sunday as the trough finally
reaches the MS River. With better synoptic forcing in the moist
environment, the likely to categorical PoPs of the NBM seem
warranted for Sunday and Monday, and showers will likely persist
into the overnight hours. No severe storms are expected this period,
but with the prolonged high rainfall chances, sometimes locally
heavy, a flash flooding threat may develop by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Predominant VFR conditions with light winds are expected for the
TAF period as high pressure builds into the region. Cannot rule
out fog at TRI tomorrow morning but confidence too low to include
a mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  88  66  89 /   0   0   0  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  60  86  64  88 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              57  84  60  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS
LONG TERM....DGS
AVIATION...KRS