Jackson, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

741
FXUS64 KMEG 222322
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
522 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve
  and Christmas Day. Highs will range from the low to mid 70s.

- A 20 to 40 percent chance for light showers and drizzle will
  continue through Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north.

- Very mild conditions will persist through Saturday until a cold
  front moves through Sunday, bringing below normal temperatures
  back to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

A 1034 mb surface high is situated over the Mid-Atlantic this
morning. As the high shifts east to the Atlantic seaboard, return
flow will develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley and lift a
weak warm front north through the Mid-South. Low clouds are
quickly pushing north and covering much of the Mid-South. The
moisture advecting north from the Gulf will be quite shallow, so
expect a 20 to 40 percent chance for light showers or drizzle
through Tuesday night. QPF amounts will be quite light with just
a few hundredths of an inch through Tuesday night.

An anomalous 588 dm upper-level ridge will build over the
southern U.S. toward the middle and latter part of the week. As
the ridge strengthens, the sun will reappear, and this will lead
to a very mild, breezy period across the Mid-South. Highs will
climb into the lower and middle 70s by Christmas and remain there
through Saturday. This will be close to record-breaking
territory, especially if temps overperform like NBM75 and
NBM90 guidance suggests. Lows will be very mild as well, with
readings only in the 50s and lower 60s, which will be close to
record high minimums. Undoubtedly, some records will fall by
Saturday. Breezy southwest winds with gusts to 25 mph will
prevail Wednesday through Saturday, mainly along and west of the
Mississippi River.

Latest guidance indicates a cold front will move through the
region on Sunday as a deep upper low is forecast to drop into the
Great Lakes. There are still questions about the strength of the
front and the amount of cold air associated with it. That being
said, the LREF is indicating a very high probability (70-90%)
that temperatures will be below normal early next week. It does
look like any cold snap will be short-lived though, with return
flow setting back up by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

A 1,500ft deck blankets the airspace for the 00z TAFs. WAA will
develop in the coming hours, but due to near surface layer dry
air, DZ is the primary concern. Any drizzle will enhance
degradation to IFR ceilings and any fog/mist is likely to
increase degradation to LIFR ceilings. Guidance favors improving
conditions from south to north late in the period, and VFR is
expected for MEM, MKL, and JBR in the next cycle.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

A 20% to 40% chance of light showers or drizzle will continue
through Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north. Fire danger
will remain very low all next week as humidity will remain
elevated in the 50% to 80% range. Unseasonably warm conditions
are expected each day as a strong upper level high pressure
system builds over the region.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM