Gallatin, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

074
FXUS64 KOHX 132355
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
655 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 649 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

- Humid with medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms
  each day through the weekend. Greatest rain chances each
  afternoon and early evening.

- Generally low risk for severe weather, but some of the storms
  will contain torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty
  winds.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Most of the thunderstorm activity has exited off to the east at
this time, but additional thunderstorms are developing in west TN
and making their way east. Similar to last night, CAMs show this
activity weakening as it makes its way across the TN River thanks
to the loss of daytime heating. Still won`t rule out isolated
showers or storms overnight, but an overall dry and calm night is
expected. Thunderstorm coverage increases again Saturday, but with
weak shear and poor lapse rates, organized severe weather is not
expected. But any thunderstorm will still be capable of frequent
lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A long wave ridge is set up over the central part of the country
with an upper level low spinning over the plains. This upper
level low is what will bring unsettle weather to Middle TN through
the weekend. It will slowly push to the east today moving into
the western part of the state by the end of the day. We are seeing
a line of showers and thunderstorms east of the TN River. This
line will continue to push east into the afternoon. We will also
see additional scattered activity develop across the area. Meso
Analysis is estimating 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE with the HREF
forecasting 1000-2000+ j/kg later this afternoon. Bulk shear is
marginal 20-25 knots. Lapse rates are rather poor and there is
limited CAPE in the hail growth zone. Overall the set up for
severe weather isn`t great but can`t rule out a few isolated
stronger storms mainly from Nashville east, wind would be the main
concern. Dew points have pushed into the upper 60s to lower 70s
with PWATs pushing up to 2" in some areas. With all of this
moisture heavy rain can be expected with any thunderstorms. The
activity will be scattered and that will keep the threat for
widespread flooding low but some localized flooding can`t be ruled
out. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s.

Overall things dry out overnight but it will remain humid and
that could bring a popup shower or storm but nothing widespread.
The upper level low will be overhead on Saturday bringing
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon
and evening. Shear will be less tomorrow and we will keep the poor
lapse rates in place. This will keep the severe threat very low.
PWATs will remain very high and localized flooding will continue
to be a concern. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The upper level low will slowly be pushing more east on Sunday.
We are still going to see widespread scattered activity area wide
for the afternoon and evening but the higher chances will be in
eastern areas. Shear and lapse rates will remain poor keeping the
severe threat low.

Weak troughing is then going to linger over Middle TN for the
remainder of week. This will keep popup afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. It will be a high CAPE
low shear environment. This will keep widespread severe threat
low but could see some gusty winds with thunderstorms as they
collapse on themselves. Highs will gradually warm back into the
upper 80s to lower 90s by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Most of the ongoing activity is exiting off to our east. CSV and
SRB will experience rain through the next hour or two. As we move
into the overnight hours, the majority of the night looks to be
mostly dry. MVFR clouds will build in near 12Z along with a wind
shift out of the SSW between 6 to 9 kts with the approach of the
upper low. VFR thresholds look to return late morning as pop up
thunderstorm activity returns. Due to low confidence in the exact
location of thunderstorm development, PROB30 groups are in the taf
at each terminal during the late morning and afternoon hours
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  84  71  87 /  50  80  40  60
Clarksville    70  81  70  85 /  60  80  20  30
Crossville     65  80  65  79 /  70  90  70  90
Columbia       69  84  69  86 /  50  80  40  50
Cookeville     67  81  67  80 /  70  90  50  80
Jamestown      65  81  66  80 /  80  90  60  90
Lawrenceburg   68  83  68  85 /  60  80  50  60
Murfreesboro   69  85  69  86 /  50  80  40  70
Waverly        68  81  68  85 /  60  80  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Baggett