Columbia, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

098
FXUS64 KOHX 150124
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
724 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 721 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

There`s a crisp line of clearing along the back edge of the
stratus in West TN that is moving toward the Tennessee River.
Those that live in the western third of Middle Tennessee may see
some stars tonight, otherwise most people will remain socked into
the stratus. The clouds will linger on Friday with some breaking
up of the stratus deck slowly occurring through the afternoon.
Tomorrow will be cool with highs mainly in the upper 50s to around
60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

As of 11 am CST...skies across Middle Tennessee are mostly cloudy
although there are a few breaks in the clouds for portions of the
region. Temperatures were cooler than this time yesterday with
current readings in the 50s. Locations receiving some extra sunlight
have climbed into the low 60s. Winds are from the west at 5 to 10
mph with some gusts to 20 mph. At the surface, an area of low
pressure was centered over the Great Lakes and down into the Ohio
Valley, while an area of surface high pressure is building into the
central and southern United States. A cold front passed through last
night and was currently situated over the Cumberland Plateau and
down into Alabama. Aloft, a negatively-tilted trough of low pressure
is moving across the Great Lakes and the Appalachians, while upper
level ridging was buidling into the southeastern United States
behind the departing trough.

Overall, the weather pattern has shifted towards a quiet period that
is expected to last through the weekend. Beginning with tonight,
widespread cloud cover is likely (greater than a 60 percent chance)
to remain in place across all of Middle Tennessee behind a departing
surface low pressure. There may be a sharp edge in the cloud cover,
mainly west of the Tennessee River. If that edge is able to cross
the river, temperatures could fall quickly leading to some potential
frost. Could also have some fog develop, so which will happen first
is a little difficult to tell at this time. For the rest of us,
including Nashville Metro, expect clouds to persist with
temperatures bottoming out in the low to mid 40s.

For tomorrow, clouds are expected to linger once again; however, no
precipitation should be anticipated with surface high pressure
building in and our weather distrubance well removed to the east.
Temperatures are forecast to be seasonal/near normal with highs in
the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will remain north, though 3-7 mph
lower than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

For the long term forecast period, benign weather this weekend
should give way to a more active weather pattern next week, though
timing still remains very much in doubt.

This weekend looks very nice with a warming trend expected to get
underway on Saturday, continuing through Tuesday. Highs should be in
the 70s for most of the area Monday and Tuesday as the next low
pressure system strengthens over the Great Plains, leading to
southerly flow for Middle Tennessee. However, forecast guidance and
ensemble members still show a lot of spread...like, a lot, leading
to reduced confidence in the timing of the next weather making
disturbances as well as when an anticipated cold front with much
cooler weather makes their presence felt. The range of solutions
includes a deep, upper level low pressure forming/digging over the
southern Great Plains to a very distinct upper level trough centered
over the Great Lakes and covering most of the eastern US. This range
of solutions puts us anywhere between remaining in the warm sector
of the developing low pressure...and thus a continuation of the warm
conditions, or well behind the cold front and experiencing some
chilly weather Thursday into next weekend. So for now, will continue
to message that a change in the weather is possible late next week.
I will note the latest trend with the going forecast is warmer
temperatures were projected with forecast guidance so have trended
the forecast up accordingly. This is likely the result of a delayed
arrival of the cold front and stronger low pressure
center.

Confidence is higher that a lead disturbance will move from the
southern Plains into the Midwestern US Monday going into Tuesday.
This should send a few showers our way Monday night into Tuesday,
though this will not be the significant drought relief type rain we
desperately need. If anything, due to the current forecast lack
of instability, we`re talking about scattered showers and if
you`re lucky, you might get 0.25-0.5 inches. The current LREF
probabilities give Middle Tennessee a 0-30% chance of 0.50 inches
of rain or more, highest along the Alabama border. In other words,
precipitation totals are currently not impressive. Will need to
watch the progression of these systems, as some models indicate a
little bit of a instability return by Wednesday ahead of the
potential southern US low (around a 25-30% chance that ensemble
cluster verifies). This could lead to some storms in the area.
Current cluster analysis does favor a slower, deeper low pressure
which would keep us on the warm side longer, though this is just
52 members out of 100 at this time and the colder solution has 48
members. Basically, it`s a tie between two drastically different
patterns which definitely lowers our confidence in the mid to late
week forecast for next week. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

MVFR cigs will move into the area this evening, with IFR and even some
LIFR cigs possible at KCSV/KSRB overnight as well. MVFR cigs look
to hang around through most of the TAF period, with VFR cigs
possible after 21Z. Northwest winds around 10 knots currently
will be around 5-10 knots overnight, and should limit fog
development. However, if cigs drop to LIFR at KCSV/KSRB, and winds
become light, fog could develop at those terminals by around 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  61  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    44  58  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     43  56  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       44  61  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     45  56  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      43  56  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   44  60  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   46  60  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        44  60  42  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Husted
LONG TERM....Husted
AVIATION.....Barnwell