Cleveland, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

830
FXUS64 KMRX 090714
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
314 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Key Messages:

1. A low risk for strong to severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are the main
threat.

2. Some isolated flooding issues will be possible due to saturated
soils from previous rains.

3. Some spotty showers or storms will continue overnight.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a closed low is moving through the Great
Lakes region today and tonight bringing a trough all the way to
the Gulf Coast. At the surface, a low over Ontario will bring a
cold front through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. The front
will move through the local region tonight. A line of showers and
storms will move through the region late this afternoon and
evening. CAMs are consistent with a progressive line or cluster
moving through from 3pm to 11pm. HRRR has the line weakening a bit
as it moves east through the region. With timing expected to be
during max heating instability will be good with CAPE around
1000-1500 J/kg around Knoxville and southward. Generally under
1000 J/kg to the north. Effective shear is not great around 20 to
maybe 30 knots. The tornado threat should be very low with 0-1km
SRH below 50 and 0-1km shear around 10 knots. Large hail will be
hard to achieve with the freezing level very high around 13k feet.
The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds. DCAPE is
very high on forecast soundings around 800 to 1000J/kg since there
is dry air near the surface helping winds aloft descend.

This activity should be moving fast enough to pose a minimal
flooding threat but with saturated soils from this never-ending
wet pattern, flooding issues will be possible during the heaviest
downpours. We can also expect more trees to be downed by winds
when soils are wet.

After midnight, shower and storm activity will become more
isolated and the severe threat should be over. I think clouds will
linger long enough to prevent dense fog formation overnight but
that will be something to watch for if rain and clouds clear out
earlier than forecast tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Key Messages:

1. Warm and mostly dry mid-week, though a few showers and storms
cannot be ruled out primarily south of I-40 Thursday afternoon.

2. Shower and storm chances become more widespread each afternoon
Friday into the weekend. For now there is low potential for stronger
storms with heavy downpours.

Discussion:

Drier air working its way in post cold front means most locations
will be dry on Tuesday though can`t rule out a shower over mountains
along the NC border. This likely makes Tuesday the best day of the
week between reasonable temperatures and the drier air. As the week
progresses, a high pressure ridge will build over us before moving
off to the east late week, and temperatures will climb into the
upper 80s. Thursday carries low rain chances, mainly in southeastern
Tennessee into southwestern North Carolina, as the beginning of
moisture return and a weak impulse might trigger a few showers and a
thunderstorm or two. Shear is weak and CAPE okay so nothing
spectacular.

By the end of the week a trough will be moving along the southern US
underneath the far northern jet. Returning moisture should provide
for better CAPE and power the next round of more widespread showers
and thunderstorms Friday and into the weekend. GFS soundings depict
very moist sounding profiles over the weekend with tall and skinny
CAPE. Euro and both ensembles have the more consistent depiction of
the southern shortwave being slow to progress while sandwiched
between two upper ridges, so rain and thunderstorms seem a good bet
to be spotting around the region into the weekend. As far as
potential severe, it looks fairly limited with both of the global
models depicting light to marginal deep layer shear over the
weekend, so storms will be more typical summer type vibes. Not sure
if there`s any potential risk for flooding at this point yet, storm
motions will be slower and we`ll be coming off a couple days to dry
out. The better takeaway is the morning hours are best to get
outdoors work done before the heat, the humidity, and the storms
show up this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

MVFR CIGs and vis will be possible this morning mainly near TRI
but confidence is not high. It does look like fog is starting to
develop on satellite in the mountains and foothills. A line of
showers and storms will move through the region in the late
afternoon and evening hours. Some storms will have gusty winds and
heavy downpours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             86  65  84  63 /  70  80  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  85  64  82  61 /  60  80  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       84  63  82  60 /  70  80  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              82  63  79  56 /  30  80  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM....Wellington
AVIATION...McD