Brentwood, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

753
FXUS64 KOHX 130540
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1240 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

- Humid with medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms
  each day through the weekend. Greatest rain chances each
  afternoon and early evening.

- Generally low risk for severe weather, but some of the storms
  will contain torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty
  winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

An upper-level low is currently making its way into eastern OK,
and numerous thunderstorms have been ongoing all day ahead of it.
These thunderstorms are in west TN at this hour, approaching the
TN River. CAMs do show this line continuing to weaken as it makes
its way into far western Middle TN which makes since given these
storms will be moving into an environment where wind shear and
lapse rates are less favorable. Still can`t rule out isolated
storms overnight as the low moves east, but severe weather is not
expected.

The weekend remains very unsettled though weather-wise as that
low takes its time clearing the area, and this keeps medium to
high storm chances in the forecast through the weekend.
Thunderstorm chances will be more dirunally-driven meaning that
coverage will be greatest each afternoon and evening. The good
news is that organized severe weather is not expected. With CAPE
values of around 1000-1500 J/kg each afternoon, instability will
be plenty. But limiting factors are weak shear at around 20-25
knots at best as well as poor mid-level lapse rates. This doesn`t
lend itself to thunderstorms that are able to sustain themselves
for long. But this is summertime, and pulse thunderstorms are
still able to produce frequent lightning, heavy rain, and gusty
winds, and these will be the main hazards with any thunderstorms
through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A series of shortwaves next week will keep the unsettled weather
pattern continuing with daily rounds of thunderstorms.
Thunderstorm activity will continue to be dirunally-driven which
keeps our highest storm chances in the afternoon & evening hours.
There`s no obvious signs for an organized severe weather threat
over the next week. Despite plenty of instability, shear values
will remain weak. But the main summertime thunderstorm hazards of
frequent lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds are all possible
with any thunderstorm. Otherwise, it will be warm and humid thanks
to high temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s with dewpoints in
the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Currently watching a line of weakening thunderstorms approach the
vicinity of CKV. I`ve got a TEMPO to handle this through 08z. Also
watching patchy fog overnight at CSV, so IFR vis will remain
possible there until around day break.

Challenges are ahead for Middle TN airfields late morning and
afternoon, mainly due to development of SHRA and/or TSRA. I`ve
continued to use VCSH or VCTS for now, and narrowed down those
times a bit this cycle. I will probably transition to TEMPOs on
the 12z cycle.

Winds will remain southerly at 5-10 kts tomorrow. Outside of
impacts from convection, conditions should prevail VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  72  84  71 /  70  50  80  50
Clarksville    84  70  82  71 /  90  50  70  40
Crossville     81  67  79  66 /  70  50 100  70
Columbia       86  69  84  69 /  70  50  80  60
Cookeville     84  68  81  68 /  70  50 100  70
Jamestown      83  67  81  66 /  70  50  90  70
Lawrenceburg   86  69  83  69 /  60  60  80  60
Murfreesboro   88  69  85  69 /  70  50  90  60
Waverly        84  68  80  69 /  80  50  90  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Sizemore