Pierre, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

121
FXUS63 KABR 061106 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
506 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow returns Saturday. 1 to 3 inches of accumulation is expected
through Saturday afternoon, with highest amounts expected in east
central South Dakota. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
for parts of east central South Dakota.

- There will be periodic lower chances for precipitation (20-40%)
beginning Sunday and continuing through early next week, as more
weak weather systems have the potential to move through the region.

- Strong northwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts in excess of 45
mph are a concern from late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 505 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Aviation discussion below has been updated in accordance with the
12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 258 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Main focus in the near-term period continues to be the incoming low
pressure center that is expected to bring precipitation to the
forecast area. Ensemble means currently show between 0.10"-0.20" of
liquid equivalent precipitation through Saturday evening. Model
soundings indicate that snow will be the dominant precip type, and
there will be little chance for anything else due to temperatures at
both the surface and aloft expected to remain below freezing through
the event. Expected snow ratios are around 15:1 based on model
soundings, which will translate to around 2" across the forecast
area. The highest totals are expected over eastern South Dakota,
where NBM 90th percentile values are around 3 inches. No changes
have been made to the Winter Weather Advisory, in effect from 9 AM
to 6 PM CST for Spink, Clark, Hamlin and Deuel counties, where the
accumulations are expected to be highest. Timing wise, the highest
QPF totals are expected Saturday morning and afternoon, before
tapering off Saturday evening.

With this system, the winds bring an additional element to the
forecast. Gusts up to 30 miles per hour are anticipated between the
James River and the Missouri River this afternoon. The timing of
these winds will most likely be after the peak precipitation time in
that area, so impacts may be marginal. However any falling snow or
potentially the fresh snow on the ground could be moved around by
the wind and potentially reduce visibility and make travel dangerous
at times. Winds will not be strong enough nor will snowfall rates be
heavy enough for any widespread blowing snow impacts, and anything
that does come together will be isolated.

Behind Saturday`s system, another clipper comes down into the
forecast area Sunday and will bring additional snow to northern
South Dakota. Only a few hundredths of liquid equivalent are
expected, mainly during the daytime hours. This will translate to
about a half an inch in additional accumulation, with fairly broad
coverage across north central and northeastern South Dakota. NBM
90th percentile (as a proxy for a "worst-case" scenario) for this
event only reaches pockets of 1" in additional accumulations, so it
is safe to say this will be a fairly low-impact snow event on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

When the period opens Sunday evening, light snow is expected to be
still falling across the eastern half of the CWA, working its way
east into Minnesota. The flow pattern compared to 24 hours ago has
not changed, a positive PNA pattern of upper ridge over the western
CONUS and upper trof over the eastern CONUS, placing this CWA in
northwest flow aloft. Models maintain that several transient areas
of clipper-like low pressure will move through the northern plains
in this upper level steering flow.

Initial low level WAA setting up over the CWA on Monday is fairly
strong, lingering into Tuesday before a strong cold front sweeps
through. High temperatures on Monday warm up into the 30s and 40s
across much of the CWA, despite snow on the ground. Tuesday could be
even warmer, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s thought
possible prior to Tuesday`s strong cold frontal passage. Strong
winds at 0.5km and higher are not expected to be felt at the surface
during the warm up on Monday. When the second surge of strong winds
in the warm sector kick in on Tuesday, there is expected to be a
period in the mid to late afternoon through the overnight hours
Tuesday night when sustained winds could exceed 40 mph and gusts
could exceed 58 mph. ENS EFI wind gusts signal is beginning to latch
on to the potential for strong wind now for Tuesday afternoon/night.
Will continue to monitor wind forecast trends, but a High Wind Watch
may be needed within the next couple of days for Tuesday/Tuesday
night. In addition to the potential for strong winds, there is some
potential for rain on Tuesday (20-40 percent chance of a quarter
inch or more of water equivalent precipitation north of a line from
Leola to Milbank. The potential for a little bit of freezing or
frozen precipitation p-type also clings to the far
northern/northeastern forecast zones Tuesday into Tuesday night,
although, still seeing a signal for the heaviest, most
meaningful/hazardous precipitation potential to reside across North
Dakota into Minnesota right now for Tuesday/Tuesday night. Arctic
cold air floods into the region from the north for Wednesday through
the end of the period. Additional chances for precipitation (snow p-
type) show up Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The main aviation concern today will be the incoming low pressure
center bringing snow to the region. Snowfall rates are generally
expected to be light, but will still likely drop visibility down to
MVFR and even IFR status at times. Similar drops in the ceiling can
be expected, and in all likelihood the airspace will be jumping
between MVFR and IFR conditions through the day. The addition of
wind adds another complication, because when coupled with the
falling snow, it may reduce visibility even further. The strongest
gusts will be between the Missouri River and the James River, up to
25 knots in the afternoon. Where winds are strongest, there may be
isolated areas of drifting or blowing snow, which could potentially
drop visibility as low as LIFR status at times. Snowfall will be
heaviest this afternoon, with eastern South Dakota expected to see
the highest snowfall rates. Snow will taper off this evening, but a
few light lingering showers may persist past sundown. MVFR ceilings
are expected to stick around after the snowfall moves out and
through nearly the rest of the TAF period, eventually lifting back
to VFR overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for SDZ018-019-022-023.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...BC