Lead, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

072
FXUS63 KUNR 021050
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
450 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong disturbance will continue to bring good chances of rain and
  snow to the region today, with snow accumulations expected in
  some areas, especially across the northern Black Hills.

- Temperatures to remain below seasonal norms through the week with
  chances for light rain and snow late Thursday into Friday.

- Warmer and drier pattern setting up for later this weekend
  into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast NE,
with inverted trough extending northwestward to central SD. Upper
level analysis shows trough over the northern high Plains, with
developing low within it across western portions of SD and NE.
KUDX radar showing areas of light snow, mostly over northwest SD
into the northern Black Hills right now on back side of developing
low. Some pcpn is starting to develop toward south central SD as
well, mainly in the form of rain, with some light snowfall in
southeast MT starting to drift into northeast WY. Temps are mostly
in the low to mid 30s, with some upper 30s over south central SD.
Winds are starting to increase from the north-northwest on the
back side of the system.

Lingering pcpn can be expected on the back side of the system today
as it strengthens and moves quickly into the upper Midwest. Pcpn
will be light in most areas, mostly in the form of light snow or
rain/snow mix later today as temps rise a few degrees. Rain or a mix
will likely be the dominant pcpn types over south central SD today.
Any additional snow accumulation will generally be up to an inch or
so through the midday hours on the plains, mainly from northeast WY
to northwest SD. Breezy conditions are expected today across much of
the plains, but any blowing snow potential should be minimal with
heavier, wet snow and temps near or above freezing.

Across the northern Black Hills, increasing north-northwest winds
this morning and abundant low level moisture in place through at
least the early afternoon will help to produce upslope enhanced
snowfall. Froude numbers show the most favorable areas being across
the higher northern foothills to areas from Savoy and Cheyenne
Crossing to Terry Peak and near Lead, this morning into the
afternoon. Up to several inches of snowfall can be expected in most
of these areas, with potential for around 6 inches total in some
areas from Terry Peak to Savoy. This is a bit lower than previously
expected as upslope enhancement has been slower to get going
overnight. Will keep headlines as is, though snowfall potential for
Spearfish and the Sundance area into the Bear Lodge Mts will be
lower. Conditions will start to improve late today and especially
this evening.

The rest of the week will remain cool, generally below average,
through Saturday. A shortwave trough and cold front will move
through the region late Thursday into Friday with chances for rain
and snow showers, along with brisk winds on Friday. Any potential
snow accumulation looks to be light and mostly confined to parts of
northeast WY, the Black Hills, northwest SD. The weekend should be
dry with a general warming trend likely into the first half of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 449 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions will continue through this
morning. Rain and snow will redevelop across much of the area
through this morning. A gradual improvement to VFR is expected
this afternoon into the evening.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for SDZ024.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for SDZ025.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for WYZ057.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...26
AVIATION...Wong