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Lead, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 11 Miles SW Alzada MT
National Weather Service Forecast for:
11 Miles SW Alzada MT
Issued by: National Weather Service Rapid City, SD |
| Updated: 8:49 am MDT Jun 13, 2025 |
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Today
Severe
T-Storms
and Patchy
Fog
|
Tonight
Severe
T-Storms
then Mostly
Cloudy
|
Saturday
Partly Sunny
then Severe
T-Storms
|
Saturday
Night
Severe
T-Storms
|
Sunday
Mostly Sunny
then Chance
T-storms
|
Sunday
Night
Showers
Likely
|
Monday
Mostly Sunny
then Chance
T-storms
|
Monday
Night
T-storms
Likely then
Showers
Likely
|
Tuesday
Showers
Likely
|
| Hi 75 °F |
Lo 54 °F |
Hi 82 °F |
Lo 57 °F |
Hi 84 °F |
Lo 57 °F |
Hi 78 °F |
Lo 55 °F |
Hi 70 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Today
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A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 75. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Tonight
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. East wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Saturday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the morning. |
Saturday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 3am, then a slight chance of showers. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Sunday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. East wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. |
Sunday Night
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Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before midnight, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Monday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. |
Monday Night
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Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. East wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. |
Tuesday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. |
Tuesday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. |
Wednesday
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Sunny, with a high near 76. |
Wednesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 52. |
Juneteenth
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Sunny, with a high near 79. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 11 Miles SW Alzada MT.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
507
FXUS63 KUNR 131141
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
541 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Areas of fog early this morning, mainly on the SD Plains
-Unsettled into next week with near daily chances for showers and
storms, some possibly severe at times
-Seasonal temps most of the period
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025
According to webcams and surface observations, fog has increased
across western SD. Visibility has dropped to under 1/4 mile along
the northern and eastern foothills of the Black Hills and
adjacent plains. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 16z.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Upper air analysis shows near zonal flow across the northern Plains,
transitioning to WSW flow over the western CONUS ahead of a stalled
PAC coast trough. Southerly low level flow continues across the
Great Plains, which is advecting in warm/moist air into the region.
Webcams/surface obs shows fog developing across portions of the
western SD plains into the northern/eastern foothills of the Black
Hills. Fog will dissipate by mid morning today. A shortwave over
Idaho will be the next one to bring storms to the CWA today. Models
continue to show southeasterly low-level flow w/ a corridor of
enhanced Theta E stretching from SW SD through NE WY. Across this
area, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and sufficient bulk shear will
support some supercell development in the late afternoon/early
evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats today, but can`t completely rule out a tornado with some
pockets of higher 0-1k shear where surface winds become more
easterly. Convection will move east across the Black Hills area
around sunset. Then storms will push into the western SD plains in
the evening along an axis of increasing Theta E advection. The
threat will become more wind-based across the SD plains. Another
shortwave will cross the upper level southwesterly flow on Saturday.
CAMs show storm development across northeast WY and the Black Hills
Sat afternoon, then pushing eastward across the western SD plains in
the evening, mainly south of I-90. Large hail and damaging winds are
again the main threats, then becoming more wind based east of the
Black Hills. Daily chances of strong/severe storms are expected
early next week, as little change to the overall pattern is
expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued At 538 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Widespread IFR conditions will continue early this morning, with low
stratus. Fog is reducing VSBY to IFR/LIFR, especially across the
western SD plains and through portions of the Black Hills.
Conditions will improve to VFR between 15-18z. Thunderstorms will
develop across northeast WY after 21z this afternoon, then push
eastward into western SD around and after 00z.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for SDZ012-013-
025-026-030-031-042>044-072>074-077.
WY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for WYZ060.
&&
$$
UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...13
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