Blackhawk, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

949
FXUS63 KUNR 102258
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
458 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Unsettled the remainder of this week with near daily chances for
 showers and storms

-Seasonal temps this week, coolest Thursday

-Smoke/haze possible at times through the period

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Unsettled westerly flow will develop this week as a series of
impulses eject out of the NE Pac upper low. Clear skies, warm, and
dry conds ongoing across the area head of the the next system.
The shift to a more active pattern will ensue tonight as the first
in a series of impulses advects across the region. This wave will
move into the region late this afternoon, supporting increasing
chances for showers and storms in the late afternoon northeast WY,
with activity shifting east tonight as a lobe of Pac moisture
advects over the region. Limited moisture will support isolated to
scattered activity, with limited rainfall amounts given expected
high based nature. Not expecting any severe weather, but a few
stronger cells with gusty winds and small hail will be possible
given inverted V profiles. Things will shift east Wed with a
period of weak subsidence over much of the FA until the next wave
approaches. Smoke from Canadian wildfires will also settle back
into the region Wed (esp across NW SD). Hence, most places will
likely be dry Wed over western SD as the frontal boundary stalls
over the region. Lingering elevated convection will be possible
across scentral SD most of the day from the exiting wave. However,
the main show will be via the next impulse late Wednesday
afternoon and evening, which will support convection over
northeast WY by late afternoon or early evening (with isolated
cells possible over the BH as well). Enough CAPE will be in place
to support a few strong to severe storms there, however, bulk
shear will be lacking, offering mainly a wind threat with cells as
well as some pulse hail. Convection will again shift east
overnight with showers and storm chances spreading into western
SD. Frontal boundary will then shift back southwest Thur, with
much cooler conds expected most places, esp over NW SD where temps
will struggle out of the 60s for highs. Things will most likely
dry out west to east Thur as the departing wave shifts east, with
some lingering precip chances in eastern areas, as well as the
Black Hills where enough diurnal instability may be in place for a
few isolated afternoon showers. Frontal boundary will reside over
the region this weekend into next week with deeper moisture
increasing as gulf moisture pools over the region INVOF the front.
This could potentially support rounds of severe weather as the
flow shifts to more WSW as impulses eject out of the mean eastern
Pac upper trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 457 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period. The exception would be brief MVFR conditions in the
scattered showers/storms this evening and overnight.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Pojorlie