Blackhawk, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

810
FXUS63 KUNR 120439
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1039 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Unsettled into next week with near daily chances for showers and
 storms, some possibly severe at times

-Seasonal temps most of the period, coolest Thursday across the
 northern half

-Smoke/haze possible through the period from Canadian wildfires

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Unsettled westerly flow will continue into next week as a series
of impulses eject out of the NE Pac upper low. Last night`s
impulse has shifted east with the sfc front settling just south of
area, banking up against the Rockies. Areas of mid cloud and cool
easterly upslope flow has limited temps on the SD Plains, with
clear skies ongoing across northeast WY. The next shortwave is
approaching the area, currently over western WY and will support
convection over northeast WY this afternoon, the rest of the FA
overnight. Isolated cells will also be possible over the higher
elevations of the Black Hills this afternoon, per weak CIN. Expect
the first round of showers/storms to develop and push east,
likely weakening as they head into western SD. However, the better
chance of storms will be driven by the shortwave later this
evening. Enough CAPE will be in place to support a few strong to
severe storms, however, bulk shear will be lacking, offering
mainly a wind threat with cells as well as some pulse hail.
Convection will again shift east overnight with showers and storm
chances spreading into western SD. Frontal boundary will then
shift back southwest Thur, with much cooler conds expected across
NW SD where temps will struggle out of the 60s for highs. Low
clouds and stratus will develop later tonight into Thur morning
over western SD as well and may limit temp potentials as far south
as I90, especially if clouds linger longer. Things will dry out
west to east Thur as the departing wave shifts east, with some
lingering precip chances in eastern areas, as well as the Black
Hills where enough diurnal instability may be in place for a few
isolated afternoon showers if clearing ensues. In addition, smoke
from Canadian wildfires will also linger around the area for the
next several days, being reinforced with any trough/frontal
passage. Frontal boundary will reside over the region this weekend
into next week with deeper moisture increasing as gulf moisture
pools over the area INVOF the front. This will likely support
rounds of severe weather as the flow shifts to more WSW aloft and
impulses eject out of the mean eastern Pac upper trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 1035 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Storms (with associated LCL MVFR conditions and gusty and erratic
winds) will continue moving through the CWA tonight. Additionally,
MVFR/IFR ceilings may develop across much of western SD after 09Z,
with some MVFR visibilities in patchy fog just east of the Black
Hills. Conditions will improve from southwest to northeast
Thursday afternoon; however, low ceilings may persist across NW SD
through Thursday evening.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Pojorlie