West Columbia, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

088
FXUS62 KCAE 231033
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
633 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions, with dangerous heat index values, are
expected during the next few days under the continued influence
of a strong upper ridge. Rain chances increase mid to late week
as ridging begins to break down.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

-  Dry. Heat continues to build into the region with well above
normal temperatures.

Mostly clear skies persist through dawn under strong ridging aloft
and surface high pressure. Temperatures will remain warm through the
night with lows only reaching into the low to mid 70s. The center of
the strong upper level ridge will shift over the Mid-Atlantic today.
Temperatures rise as a result into the mid to upper 90s, with heat
indices rising into the low triple digits and dewpoints in the mid
60s to low 70s. Overall atmospheric moisture remains around 90% of
normal, or around 1.3" to 1.5". Surface high pressure just off the
coast will also help to promote broad subsidence over the area which
will limit convective chances (<10%), and CAMs essentially depict no
showers or storms this afternoon. Skies remain mostly clear through
the near term, with light south or southeasterly winds. Tonight,
clear skies and light to near calm winds will return, and lows will
only fall into the balmy mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Hot and humid with heat index values close to Heat Advisory
  criteria.

- Rain chances increase on Wednesday with isolated to scattered
  showers and thunderstorms possible.

Strong upper ridging will be centered to our north on Tuesday
and will likely begin to break down across the Southeastern US
on Wednesday as a mid-level feature undercuts the ridge. This
will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 90s to near 100
degrees on Tuesday, and the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday. The
combination of heat and humidity will allow heat index values to
reach the 103 to 108 range, potentially slightly higher on
Wednesday. These values place us close to our Heat Advisory
criteria of 108 degrees for two or more hours. No heat products
will be issued with this forecast package. Regardless of
criteria being met, caution should be exercised while outdoors
during peak heating. Rain chances have increased since
yesterday, especially on Wednesday. Added Chance PoPs to the
forecast on Wednesday during the afternoon and evening hours. It
is interesting to note that some machine learning guidance
shows an increased risk for strong to severe thunderstorms on
Wednesday, especially towards the Upstate. The timing and
coverage of this convective could also determine if Heat
Advisory criteria will be made. Some of the hi-res guidance
suggest convective development on Tuesday as well so added
Slight Chance PoPs for Tuesday evening in the Pee Dee region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Upper ridging weakens through the period allowing for a more
  typical summertime pattern including daily shower and
  thunderstorm chances.

The upper ridge should continue to weaken across the region late
this week. This will allow temperatures to return to near
seasonal values for late June with highs in the lower to mid
90s. A typical summer pattern becomes established with warm and
humid conditions and daily chances for afternoon and evening
convection. There will be a low to medium, 30 to 40 percent,
chance of measurable precipitation each day. The severe threat
appears low at this time, though summertime pulse thunderstorms
always bring the risk of a few stronger thunderstorms bringing a
strong wind risk.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Very localized restrictions at AGS/OGB through about 23/13z. Then
VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period.

SKC this morning, though some upstream thin high cirrus to the
northeast may move over the terminals over the next few hours. Winds
are light and variable to calm. Some patchy fog has developed at the
typical prone sites of AGS/OGB, but restrictions should ease as the
sun comes up, generally between 23/12-23/14z. Surface winds remain
variable much of this morning, then begin to favor a SLY/SELY
direction around midday through the afternoon, remaining less than
10 kts. Mostly clear skies are expected through the end of the TAF
period with only FEW cumulus and cirrus during the afternoon and
into this evening before becoming SKC.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The remainder of this week looks to be
on the drier side, though a slight increase in rain chances
Wednesday and beyond may lead to very brief restrictions if the
terminals are impacted.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$