Goose Creek, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

929
FXUS62 KCHS 201835
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
235 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front will dissipate north of the area through
the weekend. Strong high pressure will set up across the
Southeast and hold steady into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Extensive dry air continues to settle into the region this
afternoon as deep-layered ridging builds to the east from the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. 20/18z instability
plots show K-indices have dropped below 20C which is typically
way too low to support convection even as surface based
instability builds. Even if a brief shower is able to initiate
along the sea breeze where dewpoints will likely pool a bit, the
entrainment of dry air should quickly choke off the updraft
resulting in rapid dissipation. Some shallow mid- level moisture
does look to pool ahead of a weak front to the north, which may
be just enough to eek out an isolated shower or tstm over upper
Charleston County into northern Berkeley County late this
afternoon into early this evening. Most areas look to remain
rain-free, however. Gridded pops through this evening were held
below mentionable thresholds, for all but upper Charleston and
northern Berkeley Counties where 20% pops were held for
continuity.

Warm conditions will persist overnight with lows ranging from
the lower-mid 70s inland to around 80 at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very strong, deep layer ridge is shown by all models to build
over the eastern and southeastern U.S. through the period. This
pattern will result in above normal temperatures and much below
normal precipitation chances.

Saturday: Slightly higher values of deep layer moisture
associated with the weak front just north of the area appears to
rotate south and westward into the region. This moisture, along
with an afternoon seabreeze, may be enough to trigger and
isolated shower or thunderstorm, mainly inland of the coast.

Saturday night through Monday: The strong ridge of high
pressure continues to build with all models showing very low,
less than 15%, chances for afternoon convection/precip.
Temperatures, especially the high temperatures, are expected to
remain above normal in the lower to mid 90s, warmest by Monday.
The hot temperatures, combined with dewpoint temperatures in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, will result in afternoon max heat
indices of 100-105 each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Little change in the patter as a strong, deep layer ridge
remains the dominant feature through much of the period. The
ridge, centered over the mid Atlantic states, slowly sags
southward and weakens through the period. Overall, chances for
precipitation are expected to be generally less than 15% each
afternoon. As the ridge slowly weakens by the end of the week,
there could be a slight increase in deep layer moisture, which
could warrant a low PoP mention. Light southerly winds each day,
becoming onshore each afternoon with the seabreeze.

Hot/above normal temperatures will continue through the period.
Highs generally in the low to mid 90s each day. Although low
level dewpoint temperatures are expected to mix down a bit each
afternoon, they will likely remain high enough to produce
afternoon Heat Indices of 102-106. Heat Indices may touch near
Heat Advisory levels, which is 108, especially Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
20/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail through 18z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to
prevail for all sites Sunday through Wednesday as a deep layer
ridge holds relatively dry/stable conditions over the region.
Chances for any afternoon convection is expected to be too low
to mention in the forecast at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A southwesterly flow regime of 10-15 kt will persist
overnight. Seas will average 2-3 ft.

Saturday through Wednesday: No highlights expected through the
period. A strong, deep layer ridge will stretch from the mid
Atlantic and southeast states, to offshore into the Atlantic
waters. Generally south- southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots and
seas 2 to 3 feet. Expect stronger onshore/southeast winds of 10
to 15 knots each afternoon near the coast with the seabreeze. At
best, only isolated late night into morning showers and/or
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$