Fort Mill, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

121
FXUS62 KGSP 230556
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1256 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift northeast through the area today, bringing
an unseasonably warm air mass to the region, along with small rain
chances to the mountains. Mostly dry and very warm conditions are
expected during the Christmas holiday through the weekend. A cold
front may bring much colder weather early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM EST Tuesday: Upper flow will amplify thru the near
term, with ridging over the Plains and a trough diving into the
Northeast. So, the overall flow over the region will veer from
SWLY to NWLY in the low-levels, and WLY to NWLY in the mid and
upper levels. A stratocu deck has spread over most of the forecast
area and will start to scatter out later this morning east of the
mountains, as downslope flow kicks in. In the meantime, spotty light
radar echos can be seen on the radar mosaic within this cloud deck,
and the CAMs agree on this light precip spreading over the area thru
early morning. The sub-cloud layer remains very dry, and moisture
aloft is shallow. So only a few spotty sprinkles can be expected,
if anything manages to reach the ground. The exception will be
near the TN border, where moisture will be aided by mechanical
lift to squeeze out a few isolated showers. Temps are basically
above freezing just about everywhere already, and should continue
warming overnight within strong warm air advection. So no freezing
precip is expected. Temps will begin a warming trend with highs
in the 60s everywhere below about 3500 ft, which is 8-14 degrees
above normal. It will be breezy today, as a westerly low-level flow
mixes down across the area. Gusts will be highest in the usual high
elevations east of the French Broad Valley and Northern Mountains,
but should stay below advisory criteria. Winds should lose their
gusts tonight outside the high terrain. Some guidance is hinting
at patchy fog forming in the NC foothills and Piedmont. But dewpts
remain fairly low, and fog looks unlikely. Lows will be well above
normal, mainly in the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1220 AM EST Tuesday:

Key Message: Near-record high temperatures are forecast for
Christmas Eve, with very warm conditions continuing into Christmas.

The upper flow pattern will be dominated by a highly amplified ridge
across the central Conus, resulting in very warm temperatures
across much of the eastern half of the country through the
period. A few lingering mountain/NW flow upslope showers are
possible at the start of the period, but Wed should otherwise be
dry, with max temps warming to 15-20 degrees above climo. Based
upon the current forecast, record daily highs will be in jeopardy
at KGSP and KCLT. The next in a series of speed maxima digging
across New England will result in another round of relatively
moist warm advection across the region on Thursday, with deeper
forcing and precip chances again maximizing north of our CWA, and
only token chance, mainly mountain PoPs warranted late Wed night
into Christmas. Very warm conditions continue on Christmas Day,
but daily records are considerably warmer/not as achievable.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1240 AM EST Tuesday:

Key Messages: Well-above-normal temperatures will continue through
the weekend. A pattern change involving the arrival of an arctic
front is looking increasingly likely early next week.

The major central Conus ridge will begin to de-amplify late in
the short term...in response to a wave train setting up over
the Canadian Rockies and Prairie...with additional height falls
invading the West Coast of the Conus. By the end of the weekend,
the ridge is forecast to completely break down, with a strong upper
low/cyclone expected to develop across the upper Miss Valley/Great
Lakes by Sunday morning. Resultant strong/large scale height falls
are anticipated across the East by the end of this forecast period,
with an arctic cold front likely sweeping across our forecast area
in the late Sunday/Sunday night time frame. This will bring about
a dramatic temperature swing...as well-above normal/near-record
warmth that is forecast Friday through the weekend is expected to
be displaced by well-below normal temps on Monday (i.e., max temps
Monday forecast to be ~30 degrees colder than on Sunday). Otherwise,
global models depict uninspired moisture return ahead of the arctic
front, while deeper forcing will most likely pass north of the CWA,
so PoPs are mainly limited to the 20-40% Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue
thru the 06Z TAF period. There is about a 20-30% chance of some
low-end VFR clouds dropping below 3000 ft in the 10-15z time frame.
Widespread stratocu with bases 4000-6000 ft will start to scatter
out late morning thru early aftn, as flow turns more westerly
and downslope kicks in. Strong winds just off the sfc across the
mountains and foothills may result in LLWS at KAVL and KHKY roughly
in that same 10-15z time frame. Winds pick up out of the SW to WSW
across the Piedmont and become gusty. At KAVL, winds will be more
sheltered by cross-valley flow, and turn briefly W, then NW. There
is more uncertainty on how much the clouds will hold on over KAVL,
but either way, expected to stay VFR. Also, may see more LLWS at
KAVL late tonight with strong NW flow off the sfc.

Outlook: A weak front will bring low-end chances for rain and
associated restrictions through early Wednesday, mainly across
the mtns. Otherwise, mostly dry, VFR conditions should prevail
thru the end of the week, outside of possible patchy mtn valley
fog and low stratus each morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 12-24

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      72 1955     17 1906     59 2015     -5 1983
   KCLT      73 2015     29 2022     63 2015      6 1983
                            1906
   KGSP      71 1964     28 2022     61 2015      7 2022



RECORDS FOR 12-25

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      71 2021     14 1983     59 2015     -7 1983
   KCLT      77 1955     22 1983     63 2015      4 1983
   KGSP      78 1955     22 1983     61 2015      6 1983



RECORDS FOR 12-26

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      78 1971     17 1902     55 2015      0 1983
   KCLT      77 2021     27 1983     58 2015      6 1983
                                        1964
   KGSP      76 2021     28 1983     62 1987      5 1985
                2015        1980



RECORDS FOR 12-27

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      72 1971     19 1902     59 2015      3 1925
   KCLT      72 2021     22 1892     65 2015     15 1970
                2015                                1948
                1971                                1925
   KGSP      75 1971     29 1925     64 2015     12 1925



RECORDS FOR 12-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      73 1889     19 1894     56 2015      0 1925
   KCLT      77 1971     30 1950     58 2015     10 1925
                            1935
                            1925
   KGSP      75 1971     31 1950     64 2015      9 1925
                            1925

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...GSP