Florence, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

303
FXUS62 KILM 101729
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
130 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move to the coastal Carolinas by Wednesday
and stall over the area. The stationary front moves northward on
Thursday as high pressure builds into the area with warm and humid
conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are possible each day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Some minor changes to sky and pop this morning to reflect latest
satellite and radar trends and new guidance. Generally, expanded
pops south and east a little earlier than previously forecast.
Going Small Craft for northern waters will be allowed to expire
at 10 AM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front will be stalled just to our west/northwest with a
trough pushing in aloft later in the day. Activity should be focused
inland during the afternoon, roughly paralleling I-95, but it`s hard
to say if coverage will be much higher than scattered. Headed into
the evening and nighttime, a mid-level trough will push through
aloft with a quick shot of increased vorticity. There`s still some
uncertainty with this, but activity should shift towards the coast
and over the waters, with enough instability lingering from the
afternoon to support an isolated severe threat due to damaging wind
gusts. Have tried to increase POPs where/when I have most
confidence, but as it has been for the past couple days mesoscale
properties might throw a wrench in things. Otherwise, SW winds will
be gusty like they have been, particularly in the afternoon. Should
see more clouds than sun, but with most of the rain inland during
peak heating hours, have warmed highs at the coast slightly. Highs
largely in the mid 80s with some spots hitting upper 80s. The front
doesn`t look to make a full passage before bouncing back north, and
clouds/rain will be ongoing so lows should be roughly uniform across
the area, near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The 500 mb trough over the eastern 1/3 of the United States will
continue to lift out as high pressure builds over the region. At the
surface, a front will stall along the Carolina coast. This boundary
will slowly dissipate as a surface ridge builds into the area. The
deep moisture will be limited on Wednesday but will increase as the
precipitable water reaches values over 2", beginning on Thursday.
The synoptic scale lift will be weak, but afternoon instability and
low-level mesoscale forcing will provide an environment that will
produce a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Wednesday
afternoon. With the deeper moisture, the chance will increase on
Thursday. Highs are expected to be around 90 inland and the mid-80s
at the beaches. Lows will be around 70 inland and lower 70s at the
beaches on Wednesday night and a few degrees warmer on Thursday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid-level ridging will dominate over the Carolinas Friday and
Saturday, and a trough will move over the area Sunday into Monday.
The average 300-700 mb stream flow shows a clockwise flow off the
southeast coast. This flow brings in the 2" precipitable water over
the region on the western periphery of this high pressure.
Precipitation chances will increase by the weekend and early next
week.

Maximum temperatures are expected to be around 90 inland and the
mid to upper 80s along the beaches. The lows are expected to range
from the lower 70s inland to the mid-70s at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ongoing convection and remnant rain will affect the terminals for
the next two to three hours with brief restrictions.  There will
likely be a lull in activity afterward but confidence is somewhat
low in convection affecting individual terminals through the
remainder of the valid taf period.  Water vapor imagery shows
abundant dry air over much of the region which could limit storms to
isolated to scattered regime after current convection ends. Overall,
looking at a mainly VFR 24 hour period outside showers and storms.
Also could be stratus inland again tonight but confidence is low in
that attm.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to intermittent
thunderstorms are possible through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight, a cold front will be stalled just to our
west/northwest with a trough pushing in aloft. SW winds will be
10- 15 kts gusting ~20 kts. Showers and storms should be more
focused inland during the day/afternoon, but the trough aloft
could focus showers/storms more towards the coast and over the
waters. Isolated storms could be strong or severe, with the main
threat being damaging wind gusts. Seas will be 4-5 ft during
the day relaxing to ~3 ft overnight.

Wednesday through Saturday, a cold front just inland will shift
northward on Thursday as high pressure builds over the coastal
waters through the forecast period. Winds will be southwest
around 10 knots through the period. Wave heights will be 2 to 3
feet. Showers and thunderstorms are possible each day.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
    108.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
NCZ110.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
SCZ054.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...31
MARINE...ILM