Florence, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

985
FXUS62 KILM 160649
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
249 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
New Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued and the Aviation
discussion was updated for the 6Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential exists through the weekend for minor coastal flooding
during the evening high tides along the Lower Cape Fear River and at
the beaches due to the new moon today.

2) The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through
the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential exists through the weekend for minor
coastal flooding during the evening high tides along the Lower Cape
Fear River and at the beaches due to the new moon today.

Water levels along the Lower Cape Fear River near downtown
Wilmington and at the beaches should reach above minor coastal
flooding thresholds within a couple hours either side of the time of
the evening high tides through the weekend. At the beaches, high
tide occurs around 8 pm this evening and 9 pm Sunday evening. Along
the Lower Cape Fear River, high tide takes place around 10 pm this
evening and 11 pm Sunday evening.


KEY MESSAGE 2: The threat for hazardous weather remains very
low through the end of next week.

Gradually strengthening mid-level ridge into the middle of next
week will result in an extended period of temperatures above
normal. Low level moisture will remain limited, keeping heat
indices reasonable. Late in the week a shallow 5h trough
crossing the Great Lakes will drag a cold front into the
Southeast. Not much forcing with the front, but there is
moisture, helping increase rain chances later Thu but more
likely on Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence exists in VFR prevailing through the period as the
column remains dry other than some passing patches of cirrus from
time to time. Light southerly to near calm winds will continue
through early morning with an uptick in S to SSE winds expected by
early afternoon Saturday. The sea breeze will produce a slight
backing and some higher gusts, mainly at the coastal terminals in
the afternoon into the early evening. Fog chances remain very low
early this morning but as low level moisture begins to increase Sat
night, potential for fog will exist.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Wednesday. Early
morning fog becomes possible from Sunday morning onward as low level
moisture increases.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...
Bermuda High pressure will dominate with a persistent southerly
return flow setting up, remaining around 10 kts or so through
today. Winds will back slightly and spike up with some higher
gusts in the afternoon sea breeze near shore. Southeasterly 7 to
8 sec swells are expected to decrease somewhat through today
with overall seas 3 ft or less.

Sunday through Wednesday...
Bermuda High will maintain southerly flow across the waters
through the middle of next week. Along the coast afternoon and
evening speed increases can be expected due to heating, but
speeds will remain under 15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...III/RGZ