Carolina Forest, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

841
FXUS62 KILM 131759
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1259 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast have been made. The main
focus will be the arctic air moving in Thursday and beyond.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain Chances Return on Wednesday

2) A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through Thursday
morning and again Saturday night will bring well below normal
temperatures to the area.




&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain Chances Return on Wednesday

A lifting shortwave will move through the area on Wednesday in
advance of a cold front on Thursday. Moisture above 700 mb is
more than sufficient for precip, but dry air in the low levels
will likely impact rain rates and QPF. Light rain will likely be
focused along the coast where isentropic lift is maximized.
Unlikely to see more than a few hundreths of rainfall through
12Z Thursday. Evaporative cooling should keep temperatures in
the mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving
through Thursday morning and again Saturday night will bring
well below normal temperatures to the area.

No measurable precipitation is expected through the period.
Cold arctic air will move in behind the first of basically two
fronts Thursday and again this weekend. The coldest lows will
occur Friday and again Sunday mornings when upper teens to lower
20s are expected. Apparent temperatures will be well into the
teens.




&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

High confidence in VFR. LLWS is possible tonight as a weak southerly
low level jet develops overhead. This is likely to remain below 20-
25 knots of shear, but could cause some trouble for smaller
aircraft. Clouds increase late in the period ahead of an approaching
shortwave, trending toward MVFR late Wednesday afternoon or
Wednesday evening.

Extended Forecast... Restrictions possible on Wednesday evening with
light rain across portions of the area, best chance along the coast.
VFR returns Thursday.


&&

.MARINE...

Through Wednesday... Winds turn southwesterly this afternoon and
this evening, increasing overnight. West to southwest winds on
Wednesday will precede a shortwave moving northeastward through the
afternoon. With clouds increasing late tonight and early Wednesday,
precipitation over the nearshore waters could begin as early as mid
morning.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Strong small craft advisory
conditions are expected Thursday and again this weekend via
strong cold air advection behind a couple of arctic cold fronts.
With the offshore flow being primarily offshore significant
seas will be somewhat limited considering the wind
speeds...mainly 2-4 feet. Some isolated five footers are always
fair game outer waters with the strongest of gusts.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK/21
KEY MESSAGES...SHK/21
DISCUSSION...SHK/21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...SHK/21