Warwick, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

201
FXUS61 KBOX 080659
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
259 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Generally dry and pleasant temperatures are in store for the region
today. A few showers are possible on Monday, but the bulk of the
rain with the next system will hold off until Tuesday. Dry and
warmer weather follows for Wednesday and Thursday...but it looks to
turn cooler again next weekend with perhaps a period of unsettled
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Key Messages...

* Areas of fog burn off by mid morning
* Partly sunny today...low risk of a spot shower west of I-91
* Highs today well into the 70s...except upper 60s/near 70 coast

Details...

Light winds, left over low level moisture and a wet ground have all
combined to result in areas of fog early this morning...some of
which was locally dense in the typically prone locations. The strong
June sun angle should allow this fog to burn off by mid
morning...but some low clouds/fog patches may flirt with the Cape
and Islands all day. Otherwise...a brief ridge of high pressure
brings a mixture of clouds and sunshine today. Highs should be well
into the 70s across most locations and perhaps flirting with 80 in
the lower Connecticut River Valley. Onshore flow will keep high
temps in the upper 60s to the lower 70s along the immediate coast.

We should mention there is a low risk of a spot shower later today
west of I-91 with diurnal heating...but for all intensive purposes a
dry and very pleasant day of weather to close out the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

Key Messages...

* A spot shower or two possible tonight into Mon...but mainly dry
* Considerable clouds Mon...but peeks of sunshine too
* Highs Mon in the 60s along the coast with 70s inland

Details...

Tonight and Monday...

Shortwave energy will lift northeast into our region tonight and
Mon. However...forcing is limited and a ridge of high pressure in
the Canadian Maritimes will send some drier air into the region.
Therefore...mainly dry weather prevails outside of a brief spot
shower or two tonight and Mon. We do expect to see a fair amount of
clouds from this shortwave...but peeks of sunshine on Mon too.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s to near 60. The high
pressure system will result in onshore flow on Mon. This will hold
high temps in the 60s near the coast with 70s further inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Key Messages:

* Chances for rain and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday with a cold
  front passage. Trending drier mid to late week.

* Slightly cooler to start the week, followed by a warming trend
  with increased humidity.

A warm front lifts over the region early in the day on Tuesday. With
increasing PWATs to roughly two inches, chance for warm advection
showers Tuesday morning and the afternoon. A trailing cold front
swings through later Tuesday afternoon/evening with potential of
downpours and embedded thunder. Drier air moves in behind the cold
front on Wednesday and continues into the end of next week as mid-
level ridging and surface high pressure build in.

Temperature-wise, Tuesday should be similar to Monday (upper 60s to
low 70s). Followed by increasing temperatures aloft Wednesday to
Friday, deep mixing to 850mb, and able to tap into the +13C to +15C.
Result are highs in the low to middle 80s. Dewpoints are elevated in
the low 60s, leading to humid conditions.

Unsettled conditions and onshore flow return heading into the
weekend, bringing more chances for showers and cooler temps.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

Today...High confidence in trends with moderate confidence in timing.

A wide range in conditions early this morning. LIFR conditions in
dense fog were mixed with a lot of MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys and even some
VFR conditions. The strong June sun angle will allow for the low
clouds/fog to burn off by mid morning or so...but they may still
flirt with the Cape/Islands at times through the afternoon.
Otherwise...VFR conditions prevail later today across the rest of
the region. E winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

VFR conditions should dominate...but onshore flow may result in some
MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys developing toward daybreak especially near the
coast as the boundary layer cools. Light NE winds.

Monday...Moderate confidence.

MVFR ceilings likely dominate Monday. We may see a spot shower or
two...but mainly dry weather is expected. ENE winds 5-10 knots.

BOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

BDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Tuesday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Monday...High confidence.

High pressure across the Canadian Maritimes will result in easterly
winds today through Monday...but gradient will be weak enough to
keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds. The main
issue for mariners will be areas of fog especially this morning.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...McMinn
AVIATION...Frank/McMinn
MARINE...Frank/McMinn