South Kingstown, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

008
FXUS61 KBOX 231913
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
213 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Wind Advisory has been put into effect for the east slopes of
The Berkshires and Cape Cod and The Islands starting tomorrow
morning and continuing through early tomorrow afternoon. Strong
northwest wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible during the
advisory period.

Another brief period of snow will be possible late tomorrow
morning/early tomorrow afternoon over southeast MA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front brings gusty winds for Christmas Eve with
  northwest gusts of 35-45mph.

- Ocean effect snow showers may bring accumulating snow to
  portions of southeast MA late tomorrow morning/early tomorrow
  afternoon

- Few rain and/or snow showers on Christmas Day, turning breezy
  northwest winds during the evening and overnight, with wind
  chills on either side of 0F.

- Lower-confidence forecast featuring snow, ice, and rain mix
  beginning late Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...A cold front brings gusty winds for Christmas
Eve with northwest gusts of 35-45 mph.

Some light/rain snow showers continue this afternoon and evening
across southern New England as a frontal wave traverses over
The Northeast. An associated cold front will push through the
region after midnight bringing a cooler/drier air mass into the
region. Additionally, this front will be associated with a
robust low-level jet defined by winds ranging from 35 to 55
knots in the 925-850 hPa layer. Strong CAA should support steep
lapse rates and efficient mixing that will allow gusts from
35-45 mph to mix to the surface early tomorrow morning through
early tomorrow afternoon.

For most of southern New England, gusts will be strong, but
likely below Wind Advisory criteria as peak 925/850 hPa winds
will be moving overhead during the first half of the morning
when mixing may not be as efficient. Expect gusts to pick up by
the mid-late morning hours as lapse rates steepen. BUFKIT
soundings reveal momentum transfers between 30-40 knots across
the interior and 35-45 knots over the high terrain of The
Berkshires, Cape Cod, and The Islands. For this reason, the
latter locations have been put into a Wind Advisory lasting
from early tomorrow morning through about 3PM tomorrow
afternoon.

Key Message 2...Minor snow accumulations possible across
portions of southeast MA tomorrow afternoon.

Surface low-pressure digs southeast from Ontario over The Gulf
of Maine tomorrow morning into tomorrow afternoon. Hi-Res model
guidance supports the development of an inverted trough that may
provide sufficient forcing for some rain/snow showers along the
east coast and The South Shore in particular. Temperatures will
be marginal for snow-fall in the mid 30s, but some heavy wet
flakes or rain will be a possibility between about 10am and 2pm
tomorrow. If surface temperatures are cool enough for snow,
we would expect minimal accumulations <1". Should temperatures
trend cooler and meso-scale forcing trend stronger, we could see
more substantial accumulations. The latest HREF model supports
a 10-20 percent chance of accumulations greater than 1" along
and east of the I-95 corridor in MA tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Few rain and/or snow showers on Christmas Day,
turning breezy northwest winds during the evening and overnight,
with wind chills on either side of 0F.

Do not anticipate any significant issues for Christmas Day, cannot
rule out isolated to scattered rain and/or snow showers with the
passage of an 850mb trough and shortwave. With PWATs around 0.5" and
the progressive nature, snow and/or rain showers will be short-lived
between the hours of 6am and noontime. Seasonable temperatures in
the upper 30s and lower 40s, from the southwest flow. Wind direction
becomes northwest early to midafternoon for the evening/overnight
hours. BUFKIT shows mixing up to 850mb, with modest CAA, gusts of 30
to 40 mph are possible. Will need to monitor this as we are nearing
criteria for a Wind Advisory. Otherwise, a chilly night with lows in
the teens/single digits and wind chill temperatures on either side
of 0F. Brief high pressure builds in for Friday with below normal
afternoon temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Lower-confidence forecast featuring snow, ice, and
rain mix beginning late Friday through the weekend.

There are two time frames to monitor for the potential of impactful
weather conditions; Friday night into Saturday and then late Sunday
into Monday. But, when it comes to exact details, this is where the
uncertainty comes into play. First, a low-pressure system moves out
of the northern Great Plains and through the Midwest, and ejects off
the Mid Atlantic Coast. As the previous forecaster mentioned, there
is varying guidance on the overall track and that remains the case
as of this update. Because of this, there is a vast spread in the
amount of QPF, with the 25th percentile of a few hundredths of an
inch and the 75th percentile of more than half to two-thirds of an
inch. Given the cold air in place, PTypes favor snow, but still time
to watch track development. At this time highest probabilities for
accumulation are across southwest CT and the NYC metro - where there
are 60 to 80 percent probabilites for more than 2" of snow.

Sunday afternoon through early Monday could bring another chance for
wintry weather, but there is much more uncertainty for this
timeframe. These are days 5 and 6, and felt it`s important to
mention because of the amount of people traveling for the holidays.
At this time exact details aren`t available because of the varying
timing and spread of the guidance, but there is potential for mixed
wintry PTypes; snow, ice, and rain mixed.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAF Update:

Through 00Z...Moderate Confidence

Patchy -RASN continues this afternoon with ceilings continuing
to fall to MVFR/LIFR levels. Light south/southeast winds.

Tonight... High Confidence in Trends

Mainly IFR through about 06Z. Winds increase in speed and shift
to west/northwest after 06Z with sustained winds from 10 to 15
knots and gusts up to 25 knots by 12Z. Drier air in northwest
flow will help improve ceiling to MVFR and eventually VFR from
west to east .

Tomorrow... High Confidence

Mainly VFR. There will be a chance for some -RASN over The
Cape/Islands and possibly BOS. These may be accompanied by
periods of MVFR ceilings, mainly between 15-21Z. Very gusty
northwest winds tomorrow. 15-25 knot northwest winds sustained
with gusts ranging from 30-40 knots. Gusty winds are largely
expected during the first half of the day and should settle down
between 18-00Z.

Tomorrow Night...High Confidence

VFR. Winds becoming light out of the west/southwest.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence

Precip more off and on through mid-afternoon before becoming
more steady rain/snow mix in the evening. CIGS will be stubborn
to drop below VFR until more steady precip can work in, then low
end MVFR to IFR CIGS can be expected.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Christmas Day: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.

Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely,
chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY


A cold front will bring gale-force winds to the waters starting
early Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Winds shift to
the NNW, gusting 30-45 knots beginning before sunrise through
the early afternoon. High winds bring rough seas with 6-10 foot
waves away from the coasts and sounds.

Winds gradually diminish on Wednesday night with seas of 3-6 feet.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Christmas Day: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain,
chance of snow.

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas
up to 10 ft. Chance of freezing spray.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of freezing spray.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of snow. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
snow, slight chance of rain.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Rain likely.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to noon EST Wednesday for MAZ002-008-
     009.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EST Wednesday for MAZ022>024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 3 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ230>237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley/RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM