Melville, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

775
FXUS61 KBOX 230741
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
241 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Guidance has dialed back snow totals, with accumulating snow now
confined to north of the RT 2 corridor and the high terrain. Rain
will mix with snow beginning this afternoon south of the Mass Pike,
lowering snow totals.

Confidence increased for gusty NNW winds behind this system on
Wednesday. Gusts of 35-45mph possible.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain/snow overspreads the region today. Minor accumulations
  of 1-3 inches north of the RT 2 corridor and high terrain.

- Cold front brings gusty winds for Christmas Eve with
  northwest gusts of 35-45mph.

- Lower-confidence forecast for the post-Christmas weekend, with
  potential for snow/ice/rain mix Fri into Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Light rain/snow overspreads the region today. Minor
 accumulations of 1-3 inches north of the RT 2 corridor and high
 terrain.

A weak shortwave trough and warm front move through the region
today, bringing light snow. Overnight guidance has trended both
drier and warmer, leading to lower snow totals for much of the
region. The best chance for accumulating snow now is north of Rt 2
and in the high terrain of the Berkshire and Worcester hills, with 1-
3 inches possible. Further south, it will be a race against time as
the window for accumulating snow will likely end around the lunch
hour as surface temperatures rise above freezing and rain begins to
mix in. With dry low-level air and weak forcing aloft, guidance has
backed off on steady precip until late afternoon; hence, chances for
accumulating snow south of Rt 2 have dropped, with totals ranging
from a trace to 1 inch. Precipitation ends from west to east between
4-7 pm, with lingering precipitation through midnight along the east
coast as surface flow turns more onshore, advecting in better
moisture. Temps remain near freezing into the evening, so
anticipating rain will continue to mix with snow through the evening.

Key Message 2...Cold front brings gusty winds for Christmas Eve with northwest
gusts of 35-45mph.


A cold front arrives early on Christmas Eve, ushering out any
remaining rain/snow and bringing gusty NNW winds to the region.
Impressive 50-55 knot 850mb LLJ moves NW to SE Wednesday morning.
The jet likely moves through a little too early for diurnal mixing
to tap fully into those winds aloft, but NNW winds and CAA should be
enough to get gusts of 35-45mph in the morning. If the LLJ slows
down, wind advisories may be needed, especially near the Cape and
Islands. Winds die down late in the afternoon as the LLJ moves
offshore and high pressure builds in briefly behind. Christmas Day
will feature highs in the mid to upper 30s, decreasing cloud cover,
and breezy west winds at 10-20mph.

Key Message 3...Lower-confidence forecast for the post-
Christmas weekend, with potential for snow/ice/rain mix Fri into
Sat.

Models have picked up on a shallow cold air mass filtering southward
from Canada/northern New England Friday allowing for widespread sub-
freezing highs. More uncertainty in the details exists regarding a
wave of low pressure which treks ESE from the Gt Lakes region Fri
night into part of Sat. Models vary on the exact track of this wave,
ranging from the mid-Atlantic states to as far north as interior
SNE. Besides track differences, as well as unknown sub-synoptic-
scale details involving potential for possible bands in warm
advection pattern, some model forecast soundings suggest loss of
saturation in snow-growth-region at some point either late Fri night
or Sat, which could cut into any accums but instead force possible
freezing drizzle into the mix. Still a large amt of uncertainty
given the above for specifics on accumulations/possible impacts if
any; but based on ensemble 24-hr snow probs, moderate (25-50%) probs
for accumulating snows at plowable (2-4") levels mainly for CT
Valley, western MA/CT and into parts of RI, with low (nil to 20%)
probs of 6" or more.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update:

Today: Moderate Confidence

Guidance has generally backed off on accumulating snow potential
south of rt 2 to the point where it may be more scattered snow
showers this morning into the early afternoon rather then a
consistent light snow. Areas south of the MA pike will see rain
mix in with snow after 18z as temperatures rise above freezing.
Cloud bases will be slow to drop this morning, generally staying
VFR/MVFR until precipitation works in, however, if precip is
slower to move in or doesnt become consistent, cloud bases could
stay MVFR rather then IFR. Some guidance and soundings are
showing LIFR CIGS this afternoon across the interior, but with a
S to SW wind and lower confidence on consistent precip,
thinking LIFR will be limited to the CAPE and Islands after
sundown.

Tonight: Moderate Confidence

Rain/snow should end from west to east between 00-03z except for
along the east coast including the cape and Islands where
rain/snow will continue through 06-08z. CIGS quickly improve to
VFR as winds tuning west at 10-15 knots. LLWS possible with
2-3kft winds approaching 45-55 knots out of the NW.

Wednesday: High Confidence

VFR inland, MVFR near the cape and the Islands due to ocean
effect rain/snow showers. Gusty NW winds around 30 knots.


KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence

Confidence in accumulating snow is low as guidance has trended
drier late this morning into the early afternoon. Precip that
does arrive prior to 18z should fall as snow before mixing in
with rain for the afternoon. Precip may become more off and on
through the afternoon before becoming more steady rain/snow mix
in the evening. CIGS will be stubborn to drop below VFR until
more steady precip can work in, then low end MVFR to IFR CIGS
can be expected.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate Confidence

Confidence in accumulating snow is low as guidance has trended
drier this morning. Any precip that falls before 18z will be
snow, but rain could mix in with snow after 18z as temps jump
above freezing. CIGS will be stubborn to drop below VFR without
steady precip. Once steady precip moves in, expecting low end
MVFR with IFR CIGS possible

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. SN likely.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY

Tranquil boating conditions to start today with winds turning S at
15-20 knots and seas under 5 feet. Rain moves in from west to east
this afternoon and continues through midnight.

A cold front will bring gale-force winds to the waters starting
early Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Winds shift to
the NNW, gusting 30-40 knots beginning before sunrise through
the early afternoon. High winds bring rough seas with 6-10 foot
waves away from the coasts and sounds.

Winds gradually diminish on Wednesday night with seas of 3-6 feet.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Christmas Day: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain,
slight chance of snow.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of snow.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.
Chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 nm or less.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance
of snow, chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon for
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Loconto/KP
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...KP