Melville, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

357
FXUS61 KBOX 301355
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
955 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures return today with some partial sunshine and just
a few afternoon and evening showers. A more significant round of
widespread showers are expected late tonight into Saturday morning,
as another low tracks through New England. A period of drier weather
is possible Saturday afternoon, before another round of showers
arrives later Saturday into Saturday night with a few embedded
thunderstorms possible too. Drier weather follows Sunday into
Monday. The forecast remains uncertain for next week, pending the
track of an offshore low. As of now, it looks mainly dry and
mild.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
955 AM update...

Key Messages:

* Partly sunny and warmer.

* A few afternoon showers or t-storm possible.

Stratus is eroding across SNE which will lead to partial
sunshine developing. Exception will be along the immediate south
coast where stratus and fog will linger into the afternoon. The
main concern for the afternoon is the potential for an isolated
t-storm or 2 to develop. Marginal instability is forecast to
develop with CAPES up to 500 J/kg. A weak surface trough may
serve as a focus for a few showers or perhaps a t-storm this
afternoon, mainly along and west of I-95 corridor. Forecast on
track.

Previous discussion...

Even as a broad surface trough to our north begins to deepen and
expand into our area, ever so slight mid level ridging should help
tamp down any widespread precip today; more likely we`ll see
lingering moisture leading to simply a good amount of cloud cover
with breaks of sun, especially out west. The exception may be along
the immediate south coast where a low level inversion traps moisture
in the form of low stratus much if not all of the day. North of
southern RI/southeast MA soundings show some modest instability
which will likely lead to diurnal showers along and northwest of the
I-95 corridor between noon and 7pm; despite some limited
instability, not expecting enough forcing for thunder at this point
but can`t be ruled out completely. Decent warm up expected, with
highs reaching into the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

* A period of rain Friday night into Saturday morning, then drying
  out Saturday afternoon, before a second round of showers &
  possible thunderstorms arrive Saturday evening/night.

Widespread rain arrives generally after midnight Friday night
associated with an anomalous mid/upper trough digging into southern
New England with additional forcing from a deepening surface low
crossing from south to north. This will focus the bulk of the
heaviest rainfall over western and central SNE, especially during
the overnight and early morning hours of Saturday. Given the track
of the low, a dry slot then moves overhead between 8am and noon
shutting off the widespread rain in the late morning through mid
afternoon period. Some additional moisture then is pulled in on the
back side in the late afternoon/evening as another shortwave rounds
the base of the trough. This should kick off another round of less
widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, generally along
and northwest of the I-95 corridor. Severe weather is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Showers with a few rumbles of thunder on Saturday night.

* Mainly dry Sunday and Monday, cannot rule out a rouge shower, but
  much of the area is dry. Cool on Sunday, but a few degrees warmer
  on Monday - near seasonable.

* Uncertainty in next weeks forecast, pending evolution of departing
  weekend system.

A secondary low pressure system emerges off the Mid-Atlantic coast
Saturday night and tracks towards the Cape and Island, this brings
an addition round of rain with embedded rumbles of thunder. This is
exiting before sunrise, leading to a mainly dry Sunday. Spot shower
or two are possible with the region under cyclonic flow, typical set
up for diurnal shower activity, but think for many of us it is a dry
day with variable cloud cover across interior southern New England
with more in the way of sunshine the closer you are to the south
coast. Monday is similar given the mid-level pattern is similar. As
for temperatures, cooler on Sunday with highs in the 60s. Will be a
bit warmer Monday as the flow turns more westerly, highs range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Looking at Tuesday through the end of the week there remains a good
deal of uncertainty with the mid-level pattern. Model guidance is
not handling the evolution of the departing weekend system. As the
cut-off low becomes more of an open trough in eastern Canada, isn`t
able to easily move eastward because of the mid-level ridge across
the North Atlantic. To the west of southern New England an amplifying
mid-level ridge spills northeastward. Does it shift the trough out
to sea or does it pinch off the trough into another closed low. If
we can shift it out to sea likely a rather nice forecast with dry
weather and warming temperatures. The other scenario, it becomes a
closed low/cut-off and is stuck east of New England and may result
in cooler temperatures and spotty shower activity. As there is a
good deal of uncertainty, leaned heavily on the NBM. Which is
leaning toward the first outcome, dry conditions and summer warmth.
Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and nighttime lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...Moderate Confidence.

Today...High confidence.

Mainly MVFR/IFR ceilings for most this morning, should become
VFR in the next few hours for all terminals except those along
the immediate south coast. IFR- LIFR conditions along the South
Coast, Cape, and Islands terminals. Some diurnally driven
showers expected this afternoon and evening. Light SW winds
between 7-15 knots.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

IFR cigs over south coast terminals expands north and west
through 06Z with -SHRA/SHRA moving in between 06 and 12Z.

Saturday...Moderate confidence.

IFR in SHRA with scattered TSRA possible. Showers and t-storms
become more scattered in the late morning and afternoon. Winds
10-15kts gusting to 20-25kts on the Cape/islands terminals by
afternoon.

BOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

BDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday through Tuesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High Confidence.

A weak pressure gradient will keep winds/seas below small craft
advisory thresholds with the main concern being fog patches
over the southern waters.

Tonight...High Confidence.

S winds increasing slowly through the overnight hours to 10-15
kts. Seas 2-4 ft.

Saturday...Moderate Confidence. A passing low pressure system
will bring stronger SW winds, 15-25 kts gusting to 30 kts on the
southern outer waters. Seas increase on the southern waters to
4-8 ft.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ232>235-237-250-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ236.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/Dooley
NEAR TERM...KJC/BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...BW/Dooley
MARINE...BW/Dooley